Polyester filament: demand or pressure 垮 next year's market 'final straw'
On the one hand, polyester has been showing high growth in the past few years, with a growth rate of 12% in 17 years, 15% in the first half of this year, and 13% in the whole year, while the growth rate of downstream textile and apparel is relatively stable, only 7-9. Around %, the gap between the two is very obvious, which makes the market always confused about the mystery of high growth of polyester and lacks confidence in its sustainability. On the other hand, next year, the United States will impose a 25% high tariff on China's garment exports, when the clothing industry will be It is very likely that there will be a large external migration, which will affect the demand for polyester. Finally, the data of downstream real estate, automobiles and other data are also declining, which will undoubtedly lower the demand for next year.
The mystery of high-growth polyester: As long as the price does not rise sharply, the growth rate of polyester next year is still expected to be significantly higher than the level of spinning
From the data point of view, the growth rate of polyester and textile is very obvious. The early market also mainly comes down to the downstream replenishment. If this is the case, the high growth of polyester is undoubtedly difficult to sustain. But so far, the data of each link has not seen significant inventory. Growth, the question is where is the polyester? In our analysis, in addition to the high-growth polyester polyester, another important reason is that it has greatly replaced other types of chemical fiber. From the perspective of textile and clothing, it is not just polyester. Also includes cotton, viscose, nylon, etc.
If we add all kinds of raw materials together, we can see that although the growth rate has rebounded, the highest is still only about 8%. The basic and clothing growth are synchronized, and there is no obvious deviation. In 17 years, the consumption of other fibers except polyester The growth rate is only 3.2%. It can be seen that the high growth of polyester is still based on the higher cost performance, and has greatly increased the increment of other chemical fiber categories. In addition, our company's research in Hengli shares, the company showcases its high-end polyester silk imitation. Silk, cotton and other varieties, in terms of personal perception, can be a bit confusing, alternative logic should be established. Therefore, as long as the price does not rise sharply, the growth rate of polyester next year is expected to remain significantly higher than the level of textile and clothing.
Impact analysis of trade warfare: exporting polyester with disguised fabrics with limited impact on final demand
Textiles and garments are not high in gross profit margin. If trade tariffs are strictly enforced, it is likely that there will be a large shift to overseas, but this is only a shift in demand, not elimination. In the polyester industry, from upstream refining, PTA to downstream Weaving, printing and dyeing, almost all in China, the global proportion is close to 70%. It is very difficult for such a complete industrial chain to replicate overseas in the short term. Not to mention the huge investment in upstream refining and PTA, the current scale of the polyester industry. The investment in economic capacity is close to 10 billion yuan, far from being able to withstand more backward countries. Moreover, the unit price of polyester is about 10,000 yuan. The export freight rate in the form of weaving is not high. If it is newly built overseas, it will not be possible to support upstream refining and chemicals in the short term. PTA capacity, still need to import upstream raw materials such as PTA, and there is no cost advantage. So for a long time in the future, the global competitiveness of China's polyester industry is difficult to shake. Even if the downstream garment industry shifts, we can still use the export fabric to disguise the output of polyester. , limited impact on final demand.
Demand slowdown impact analysis: If real estate sales decline next year, the probability of this part will be significantly reduced
Among the three-point market concerns, the most likely to be realized is the slowdown in domestic demand. At present, in the downstream of polyester, home textiles, curtains and other real estates are highly correlated with 40%. If real estate sales decline next year, this is a high probability. It will be significantly lower. The most pessimistic assumption is that the industry will return to 13-15 years of real estate sales, and the average growth rate of polyester demand is 4%. Supply growth obviously lacks demand support. At this time, it is necessary to test whether the enterprise can control its own production desire and jointly maintain the desired profit level.
Analysis of new supply capacity: Integrated enterprises have the ability to maintain a high level of profitability, leading enterprises do not hesitate
From the perspective of new supply, it is mainly concentrated in Tongkun, Xinfengming and Hengyi Petrochemical, and these three are also the top three producers of POY. If the new amount seriously hurts the industry's profit, the company should have a higher tendency. Controlled production insured. Of course, from the perspective of the industrial chain, the most intense supply and demand next year is PTA. If polyester maintains production expansion, it will inevitably lead to more intense PTA links. It is likely that PTA will squeeze out PX and polyester almost all profits. Hengyi and Tongkun, which are supporting the whole industry chain, are not unacceptable. They can even take the opportunity to suppress the expansion of other competitors and consolidate their competitive advantage in the polyester field. Therefore, even if demand slows down, integrated enterprises still have The ability to maintain a high level of profitability. Which part of the specific profit is allocated depends on the pricing strategy of the leader.