Since mid-September, the PTA market has turned sharply, dropping from the high of 9,200 yuan to more than 2,000 yuan. As of November 5, the reference price of the East China market has dropped to 7059 yuan. The current operating rate of the industry is declining, pushing the market into the destocking stage, while the international oil price Stable formation of support, it is expected that the PTA market is expected to get rid of the downturn and bottom out.
First, downstream cost pressures are alleviating, and demand is expected to pick up.
In September, this was the traditional peak season for the polyester industry, but this year it was unexpectedly 'cool', and the production and sales situation was not optimistic. In October, the production and sales rate of the polyester filament industry was only 71%, which was the lowest in the past five years; the weaving enterprises were also bleak. Inventories have accumulated for 32 consecutive days, an increase of 18% compared with the same period of last year. The reason is that the high-level operation of the PTA market in the early stage led to the increase in the cost of polyester enterprises, and the production and sales were weak. However, as the price of PTA fell rapidly, the cost pressure of polyester manufacturers gradually eased. , to promote the industry to pick up, and benefit the PTA market.
Second, the industry's operating rate has fallen, and market supply has tightened.
Recently, the PTA market has been falling continuously, and the profit of production enterprises has been severely compressed. It has fallen from 700~800 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. Due to cost considerations, the main production facilities have been shut down for maintenance. It is estimated that the repair capacity will be nearly 8 million in the fourth quarter. Tons/year. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry has dropped from 88% after the National Day holiday to less than 80%.
In terms of external disk, Singapore's Jurong 800,000 tons/year device and Xincheng 2.1 million tons/year device plan are inspected in November, and the Asian PTA operating rate is still at a low level. Under the combined effect of internal and external disks, PTA supply will be tightened.
3. Again, international oil prices have stabilized and cost support has been strong.
At present, the impact of the US sanctions on Iran, which has received much attention from the industry, has already taken shape. Although the sanctions have been officially launched recently, the US has left some room to temporarily allow 8 countries to continue importing Iranian crude oil. In the short term, sanctions The negative impact of the measures on international oil prices will be less than expected. Previously, the international oil price was alleviated by the negative impact of this news, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound, providing cost support for the PTA market.