The adjustment of the PV industry policy has come too suddenly. The photovoltaic industry that has fallen into silence is ushered in a spree.
On November 2, 2018, the National Energy Administration held a symposium on the mid-term evaluation results of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development, discussing the adjustment of the development planning goals in the '13th Five-Year Plan' photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation. According to the participants The information, 13th five-year PV development scale is expected to be adjusted from 105GW to more than 210GW, the photovoltaic industry subsidies may be extended to 2022, the photovoltaic industry support policy will be intensified in 2019, household photovoltaics may be managed separately from centralized power plants. Landing, the demand for new PV installations will be released in the next year, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 40GW or more.
In 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the “Measures for the Management of Electric Power Planning” to clarify the series of management measures for planning and adjustment. The mid-term adjustment of the '13th Five-Year Plan is a routine action, and the planning is advanced to the medium term. According to the planning management method, the planning contents of each industry should be adjusted. Previously, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Carrying out the Mid-term Evaluation and Rolling Adjustment of the '13th Five-Year Plan for Power Planning, to carry out the mid-term evaluation and rolling adjustment of the 13th Five-Year Power Plan.
However, the Energy Bureau seminar coincided with the Central Private Enterprise Symposium, and the person in charge of the PV company stated the pain caused by the adjustment of the PV industry policy and received instructions from the central high-level officials. The National Energy Administration’s move is to 531 The revision of the policy is also a response to the central government (approval) policy.
Stimulated by this positive, the listed companies in the photovoltaic industry Longji shares, Tongwei shares, Sunshine Power, Zhengtai Electric, Linyang Energy, etc. are all closed daily, the listed company's market value increased by more than 10 billion yuan a day. The gold content of this policy High, the first in the capital market. If you calculate the market demand brought about by policy changes, this policy will bring more than 100 billion yuan worth of value.
Having said that, since the 531 policy, the photovoltaic industry has experienced a severe space for half a year. Facing the earthquake in the industry, it can be described as a year. Photovoltaic power plant transfer, PV module manufacturers layoffs, PV industry transformation, bank lending, etc., silicon material The price of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules is falling again and again. The leverage effect brought by the policy has been fermented in half a year, and the current sudden reversal. People in the industry are calling 'too sudden.'
Then, before and after the policy adjustment, who is responsible for the policy imbalance? Who is this pot?
For the scale of the 13th Five-Year Solar PV, the adjustment to 250gw, or 270gw still needs to be decided by the decision-making department. The direction is to release the indicator, but the fish and the bear's paw can not have both, it is impossible to both the indicator and the subsidy. Inconsistent with policy guidance (parity online), but also with the increasing subsidy gap. Increasing indicators, a prerequisite for extending subsidies is to further reduce the scale of subsidies. Otherwise the Ministry of Finance will not agree, the grid company does not agree.
In fact, the energy management department encourages and supports projects that do not require subsidies. Local governments can either introduce subsidy programs on their own, or they can build projects that do not require subsidies. From the current components and epc cost (polycrystalline components) 1.8 yuan per watt, single crystal PERC 2.1 yuan per watt, single crystal double-sided PERC 2.4 yuan per watt, system cost is about 5 yuan / watt), is not feasible. The industry is still looking to expand the scale of the photovoltaic leader base , relying on the front runner to drive downstream demand.
Secondly, the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation is increased, the price of upstream silicon materials is declining, and the cost of non-technical products is falling. Non-technical costs include resource fees commonly used in the market, road fees, etc., and the cost per watt is 0.5 yuan. Big, Energy Jun believes that if the parties are not profitable, then there is little motivation for the project to advance.
Achieving parity online is a staged progress of the industry, and it is also the driving force for the market demand to achieve a positive cycle. When we are still waiting for the cost to fall, and the time for the parity online is set at 2020, the policy suddenly turns. The cost within the system drops. The speed and parity of online time may be lengthened. As the demand improves, the gross profit margin of all links in the PV industry chain may also rebound. Leading companies are expected to exceed the industry average growth rate due to the introduction of small companies in the early stage.