National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
First, the operation of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index
In October 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry continued to operate in the expansion range, but the expansion rate slowed down.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to expand. The PMI of small and medium enterprises was 47.7% and 49.8%, respectively, down by 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, respectively. critical point.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the new order index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index, the employee index and the supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.
The production index was 52.0%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range, indicating that the pace of manufacturing expansion has slowed down.
The new order index was 50.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that the growth rate of manufacturing market demand has declined.
The raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
The employee index was 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing industry's employment fell.
The supplier's delivery time index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the lead time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has slowed down.
Table 1 China's manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| PMI | ||||||
| produce | new order | Raw material in stock | Practitioner | Supplier delivery time | ||
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November 2017 | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December 2017 | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| January 2018 | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| February 2018 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| March 2018 | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| April 2018 | 51.4 | 53.1 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| May 2018 | 51.9 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| June 2018 | 51.5 | 53.6 | 53.2 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| July 2018 | 51.2 | 53.0 | 52.3 | 48.9 | 49.2 | 50.0 |
| August 2018 | 51.3 | 53.3 | 52.2 | 48.7 | 49.4 | 49.6 |
| September 2018 | 50.8 | 53.0 | 52.0 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.7 |
| October 2018 | 50.2 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 47.2 | 48.1 | 49.5 |
Table 2 Other relevant indicators of China's manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| New export Order | import | Purchase quantity | Main raw material purchase price | Factory price | Finished product in stock | In hand Order | Production and operation activities are expected | |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November 2017 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December 2017 | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
| January 2018 | 49.5 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 59.7 | 51.8 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 56.8 |
| February 2018 | 49.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 53.4 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 58.2 |
| March 2018 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 48.9 | 47.3 | 46.0 | 58.7 |
| April 2018 | 50.7 | 50.2 | 52.6 | 53.0 | 50.2 | 47.2 | 46.2 | 58.4 |
| May 2018 | 51.2 | 50.9 | 53.0 | 56.7 | 53.2 | 46.1 | 45.9 | 58.7 |
| June 2018 | 49.8 | 50.0 | 52.8 | 57.7 | 53.3 | 46.3 | 45.5 | 57.9 |
| July 2018 | 49.8 | 49.6 | 51.5 | 54.3 | 50.5 | 47.1 | 45.7 | 56.6 |
| August 2018 | 49.4 | 49.1 | 51.8 | 58.7 | 54.3 | 47.4 | 46.7 | 57.0 |
| September 2018 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 59.8 | 54.3 | 47.4 | 45.2 | 56.4 |
| October 2018 | 46.9 | 47.6 | 51.0 | 58.0 | 52.0 | 47.1 | 44.3 | 56.4 |
Second, the operation of China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index
In October 2018, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that non-manufacturing industries continued to grow and the growth rate slowed down.
In terms of industries, the service industry business activity index was 52.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the service industry growth rate slowed down. From the industry category, railway transportation industry, air transportation industry, postal industry, telecommunications radio and television And the business activities index of satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, insurance industry, leasing and business services industries are all above 55.0%, and business activities are more active. Capital market services, real estate industry, residential services The business activity index of the industry such as the repair industry continued to be below the critical point, and the total business volume declined. The construction industry business activity index was 63.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the construction industry production activities continued to accelerate.
The new order index was 50.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above the critical point, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing market demand slowed down. In terms of industries, the service industry new order index was 49.1%, down 1.0 from last month. Percentage points, below the critical point. The construction industry's new orders index was 56.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
The price index of input products was 54.9%, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices of non-manufacturing enterprises used for business activities continued to rise, and the growth rate narrowed. The price index was 53.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry input price index was 63.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 51.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Above the critical point, it indicated that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price has narrowed. According to the industry, the service industry sales price index is 50.7%, compared with last month. Falling 0.3 percentage points. The construction industry sales price index was 54.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
The employee index was 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing enterprises contracted. In terms of industries, the service industry employee index was 48.0%, down 0.5 from last month. Percentage point. The construction industry employee index was 54.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index is 60.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continues to be in a high economic range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises are optimistic about market development expectations. By industry, the service industry business activity expectation index is 59.7%, Last month, it rose by 0.4 percentage points. The construction industry business activity expectation index was 66.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.
Table 3 China's non-manufacturing main classification index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| Business activity | new order | Input price | selling price | Practitioner | Business Activity expected | |
| October 2017 | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 49.4 | 60.6 |
| November 2017 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 49.2 | 61.6 |
| December 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 49.3 | 60.9 |
| January 2018 | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 49.4 | 61.7 |
| February 2018 | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| March 2018 | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 61.1 |
| April 2018 | 54.8 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 49.0 | 61.5 |
| May 2018 | 54.9 | 51.0 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 49.2 | 61.0 |
| June 2018 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 60.8 |
| July 2018 | 54.0 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 50.2 | 60.2 |
| August 2018 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 54.3 | 50.9 | 50.4 | 61.4 |
| September 2018 | 54.9 | 51.0 | 55.6 | 51.5 | 49.3 | 60.1 |
| October 2018 | 53.9 | 50.1 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 48.9 | 60.6 |
Table 4 China's non-manufacturing other sub-indices (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||
| New export order | Order in hand | stock | Supplier delivery time | |
| October 2017 | 50.7 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.1 |
| November 2017 | 50.9 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| December 2017 | 51.5 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 51.3 |
| January 2018 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 46.5 | 51.3 |
| February 2018 | 45.9 | 43.8 | 47.6 | 50.7 |
| March 2018 | 50.4 | 44.3 | 46.2 | 51.6 |
| April 2018 | 50.0 | 44.4 | 46.7 | 51.5 |
| May 2018 | 49.1 | 44.1 | 46.0 | 51.7 |
| June 2018 | 48.2 | 44.0 | 46.4 | 51.6 |
| July 2018 | 48.9 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 51.3 |
| August 2018 | 49.0 | 43.9 | 46.5 | 51.4 |
| September 2018 | 49.8 | 43.8 | 47.1 | 51.6 |
| October 2018 | 47.8 | 43.8 | 47.4 | 51.5 |
Third, the operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index
In October 2018, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.1%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the growth rate slowed down.
Note
1. Explanation of main indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled from the monthly survey results of the company's purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production, and circulation, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. One of the leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends has a strong forecast and early warning effect. The comprehensive PMI output index is a reflection of the current industry-wide (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) output changes in the PMI indicator system. Composite index. PMI usually takes 50% as the cut-off point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall expansion of the economy; below 50%, it reflects the overall contraction of the economy.
2. Scope of investigation
There are 31 industry categories involving manufacturing in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011), 3,000 survey samples; 36 industry categories in non-manufacturing industries, and 4,000 survey samples.
3. Survey method
The Purchasing Manager survey uses the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, which is based on the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. The sample size of the industry is allocated according to the added value of the added value of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. The sample is drawn using a probability proportional to the company's main business income.
The survey was organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. The national statistical network direct reporting system was used to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on the enterprise procurement manager.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of classification index. Manufacturing procurement manager survey indicator system includes production, new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices of major raw materials, ex-factory prices, raw material inventory , 13 employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations, etc. 13 non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey indicator system including business activities, new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, inventory, input prices, sales prices 10 sub-indices, such as practitioners, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations, etc. The classification index uses the diffusion index calculation method, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are positively answered plus half of the percentage of the answer. 1. The index of business activity is commonly used in the world to reflect the overall change in the development of non - manufacturing economy.
(2) Calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (category indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are determined according to their preemptive influence on the economy. Including: new order index, weight 30%; production index, weight 25%; employee index, weight 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight 15%; raw material inventory index, weight 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the reverse operation is performed when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is formed by weighted summation of manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing in GDP respectively. The index was released in January 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The Purchasing Manager Survey is a monthly survey. Due to seasonal factors, the data is highly volatile. The published indices are all seasonally adjusted data.