Late production device
In the fourth quarter of 2018 alone, there were two companies in China that were put into production. In the later period, domestic PC devices were springing up.
Source of data: Jin Lianchuang
How will the PC market react?
From the perspective of supply, the domestic PC equipment will be put into operation and the domestic production capacity will increase. It is necessary to say that the market supply will be further expanded. In the later period, Sichuan Zhonglan New Materials, Hubei Ganing, Henan Shengtong Juyuan will be put into operation. Breaking the capacity distribution mainly in East China, the capacity of PC in Southwest China, North China and Central China will increase gradually, and the distribution of domestic PC supply will gradually become average. The continuous release of domestic production capacity will inevitably affect the import materials, but the barriers to production process will be affected. Domestically produced materials are mainly in the middle and low end, and high-end materials will still rely on imports, and the market supply will be growing in the later stage.
On the demand side, the production capacity is collectively erupted, but the downstream demand is unlikely to have a spurt of growth. In the short term, the market has continued to decline for a long time. The downstream factories have more to buy and sell than PCs, and it is difficult to stimulate the market's desire to purchase. The factory market has limited market inventory digestibility, and the market supply and demand contradictions are obvious. In the long run, the demand for polycarbonate mainly comes from the fields of electrical, electronic and automotive. In recent years, with the increase of energy conservation and emission reduction, the vehicles are plasticized and light. Qualification has become a development trend, the demand for polycarbonate will increase, and with the support of the national 'One Belt, One Road' policy, domestic PC exports will be further expanded.
On the macro side, on the one hand, affected by the Sino-US trade war factors, downstream factory orders have decreased significantly, and market access has weakened; on the other hand, domestic environmental supervision has affected, small factories, small workshops closed, and some downstream factories have started operating rates. Restricted, under the influence of various factors, the market has no support at the moment, and the bad news is gathered.
From a mentality point of view, the current market supply and demand contradictions are obvious, the supply is far greater than the demand, and the domestic production capacity will increase in the later period, which will further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand. Traders are not optimistic about this mentality, and are more cautious, and are not optimistic about the later market. The factory is still thinking about buying and selling, and the market as a whole looks hollow.
On the whole, in the short term, PC downstream demand lacks new major growth points, and it is difficult for the market to rapidly digest large quantities of production capacity. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of polycarbonate in China will further intensify in the future, and the competition between domestic and imported low-end materials will become more intense. The market's sluggish influence, the market outlook may further weaken.