Using the 'Branch Lema' to describe the polypropylene market in mid-October can be said to be very appropriate. In mid-October, the market wind suddenly turned sharply, and the worry was self-evident. Why the wind changes so sharply, what makes the market change so fast... ...
The market is high and the wind is cold.
2017-2018 PP drawing price comparison chart
In the middle of October, the polypropylene market was in a high position, taking Shaoxing three-round drawing as an example. The high price was 1,1,500 yuan/ton, and the current price was 11,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.35%. The high price of the market was blocked, because the terminal enterprises were damaged due to profits. High price resistance is strong. Due to the tight spot resources of drawing, and the propylene monomer is strong, it delays the downward trend of drawing. However, the futures have fallen in the near future, the market pressure has increased, and the high level softening phenomenon has further intensified.
Spot spot spread narrowed
2017-2018 PP futures price comparison chart
Futures this week, the wind has been urgently adjusted, and the market decline is mostly in anticipation. The futures and spot price spreads gradually expanded, and the futures' decline fell 2.28% on the first day after the holiday. However, although the spot price was slightly weaker, the petrochemical and medium oil ex-factory prices were the main force. Very market, the price difference between the two is still 700-800 yuan / ton, the current spot premium futures, the latter affected by the supply and demand pattern, the price gap between the two has gradually narrowed.
Inventory change knows the market
2017-2018 PP drawing and stock comparison chart
The oil inventory data is good, supporting the spot drawing high, so the spot drawing is supported by the ex-factory price of the two oils. In the short term, there is no risk of rapid decline. Although all the forces have shown that the shorts have gradually emerged, supported by high naphtha, the two oils are shipped. The price decline is limited. The downstream demand is not warm, and the merchants are cautious to increase the mentality of the shipment.
Where is the market low?
The high pressure on the market is aggravated, the futures and spot price gaps are gradually narrowing, and the high price of raw materials is falling. The terminal factories are constrained by the shrinking profits, which restricts the enthusiasm of raw materials procurement. However, the cost of oil products is obviously supported, and the short-term consumption is expected to increase. Short-term supply is good to ease market pressure. At present, futures and spot are in the repair stage, and there is still room for decline in spot high. The price of East China drawing at the end of the month may stop falling at 10600-10800 yuan/ton.