Since October, the domestic bottle-grade PET market has begun to turn into a rapid decline channel after a brief rebound. The raw material PTA market is falling, the cost is being pressured, the supply of bottle flakes is increasing, and the downstream demand is entering the off-season. The short-term market downturn is hard to stop.
Source of data: Jin Lianchuang
After the end of the 11th holiday, thanks to the small increase in the raw material PTA market, the domestic bottle-grade PET market experienced a three-day small rebound cycle, and the market price in East China rose to around 10,000-10150 yuan/ton. Weak trade and international crude oil prices fell. The raw material PTA spot market began to turn sharply, the cost support collapsed, the market panic mentality intensified, merchants began to actively sell goods at low prices, and the market turnover continued to fall. Under the market decline, downstream buying The market slowed down, and the market was weak. As of now, the market price in East China has dropped to around 9450-9650 yuan/ton, which has dropped by 525 yuan/ton. For the market outlook, the short-term market mentality is difficult to reverse. Let us briefly analyze a bit:
First, the raw material PTA market trend is still weak. Although the PTA factory has a lot of accidental overhaul, the downstream resumption of production is not as optimistic as expected, offsetting the positive effect of PTA supply tightness, while the current polyester inventory continues to be high, the factory is not in a hurry. The lifting started, and the performance of polyester production and sales was dull. The terminal weaving did not see the signs of 'Double Eleven' stocking, so the PTA market may continue to be weak in the short term. The cost will still have some pressure on the market.
Table 1 Summary of recent changes in domestic bottle-level PET enterprise installations (unit: 10,000 tons/year)
Source of data: Jin Lianchuang
Secondly, the recent start-up of bottle manufacturers has improved, some devices have gradually resumed and restarted, and the market supply has increased. Guangzhou Pan Asia's 300,000-ton PET bottle device has gradually resumed driving around October 16th. Maintaining about 50%, the device began to stop maintenance at the end of September. Jiangsu Baosheng's 150,000-ton PET bottle device has resumed driving around October 11th. It is currently operating at a low level, and the device began to be shut down for maintenance around September 8. Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. A set of 220,000 tons of polyester flakes was transferred back to the production of bottle flakes on the 9th. The current production capacity is 250,000 tons. The previous 200,000 tons of flakes have been discontinued. Changzhou China Resources has its 200,000 tons of flakes since the 19th. The device gradually resumed driving, and another 200,000 tons of equipment was driven after one week. The remaining 600,000 tons of equipment and other driving devices were stabilized and then stopped to carry out coal-to-gas conversion; Zhuhai China Resources' 600,000-ton installation began to increase to around 8-90% in October. Jiangsu Sanfangxiang's 2 million-ton bottle-and-chip device is currently being upgraded. The current 200,000-ton production line is heating up, with daily output around 4,000 tons.
Third, as the weather turned cold, the demand for terminal beverages entered the off-season, the start of the beverage factory declined, the demand for bottle-grade PET decreased, and under the market decline, the downstream cautious wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the buying enthusiasm was low. , to maintain the need for small orders mainly. Short-term demand is difficult to improve.
According to Jin Lianchuang, the current global economy and stock market environment are relatively poor, the international crude oil trend is weak, the macro face the market mentality, the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market trend is weak, the cost side support is weakened, and the market supply and demand is basically Poor face, the market is still dominated by bearish sentiment, the short-term bottle-grade PET market still has a small correction, and continue to pay close attention to the raw material market trends.