We officially started the release of lithium battery installed data in September.
1, in September 2018, the installed capacity of lithium battery was 6.01GWh, a year-on-year increase of 88.9%, a 42.4% increase from the previous month.
According to data from True Lithium Research, the monthly installed capacity of lithium batteries in China's electric vehicle market was as high as 6.01GWh in September 2018, an increase of 88.9% compared with 3.18GWh in September last year. The main contribution of the increase was from EV passenger cars, the market. In September, it installed 3.31GWh, which is more than last year's total. It increased by 165.6% year-on-year, accounting for 55.1% of the total installed capacity of the month. For lithium-ion enterprises, it used to be the EV bus market. Will be transformed into 'the world of EV passenger car market.'
The contribution of the EV bus market is also very large. The market achieved 1.77GWh of lithium-ion installed capacity in September, an increase of nearly 700MWh compared with the same period of last year. The installed capacity of PHEV passenger cars in September was not large, but the year-on-year growth rate was as high as 120.6%, ranking second. The only year-on-year decline was the PHEV bus market, which was only 13MWh installed in September. The change in policy is causing the market to die.
On a month-on-month basis, compared with 4.22GWh in August, the installed capacity of lithium battery increased by 42.4% in September, which has a big improvement. Among them, the fastest growth rate is the EV special vehicle market, and the installed capacity in September is 528.7MWh. 25.7 times of the month; followed by the EV bus market, achieving a 383.1% increase in the chain, which may mean that the technical requirements for the rapid growth of the New Deal have been basically digested in these two markets, and the development in the next few months will be benign (Note: 'Perhaps' because the reasons analyzed in the next paragraph cannot be ignored.)
There is a very interesting phenomenon in the ring data, that is, the monthly growth rate of the two types of electric passenger cars is very general, especially the PHEV passenger car installed machine even has a 52.6% decrease in the ring ratio. In the view of Mo Ke, trace the source This may be caused by the decline of the traditional auto market. The year-on-year decline in the sales volume of the traditional auto market has accelerated in recent months, and the volume and price have fallen, which has forced the automakers to switch to electric vehicles with relatively stable profits (because of the existence of subsidies). However, we know that the subsidy for electric vehicles is after you realize sales. Therefore, the 'sales ability' of the car companies determines the output of electric vehicles and the installed capacity of lithium batteries. The electric vehicle market is generally divided into private purchases and groups. Purchase, the latter is easy to achieve rapid growth. In the above-mentioned several types of electric vehicle market, EV passenger cars, PHEV passenger cars and EV special vehicles are basically purchased by the group, while the two types of electric passenger car market are privately purchased. Large, especially the customers in the PHEV passenger car market are basically private. Speaking of this, Mok also does not want to continue, readers can continue to study and analyze .
From the perspective of different battery types, in the total installed capacity of 6.01GWh in September, NCM ternary batteries accounted for 59.8% of 3.59GWh, which was the same as 60% of the previous 8 months; among them, 2.86GWh was used for EV multiplication. Cars, accounting for 79.7%. It is foreseeable that with the further strengthening of the EV passenger car market in the future, the installation of NCM ternary batteries will be further developed.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39.2% of 2.35GWh, of which 1.72GWh was used for EV passenger cars, accounting for 72.9%; 445.4MWh was used for EV passenger cars, accounting for 18.9%. It should be mentioned that lithium iron phosphate The battery group efficiency is significantly higher than that of the ternary battery. Some lithium iron phosphate batteries on the EV bus have a group efficiency of more than 90%, which means that in addition to the battery core, other components (such as safety components) Almost no, such a battery pack is equally difficult to be safe. Therefore, Mokke believes that the battery route is not the main cause of the frequent safety problems of our current electric vehicles.
From the perspective of different shapes of batteries, in the total installed capacity of 6.01GWh in September, the square battery accounted for 77.8% of the 4.68GWh, and the application in the various vehicle markets accounted for more than 50%. Among them, the installed capacity in the EV bus market accounted for 50%. The ratio is as high as 96.7%, and it has reached 68.2% in the EV passenger car market. In the application technology development of square batteries, Chinese manufacturers have the most experience and the strongest capabilities in the world.
The soft pack battery ranked second with 713.4MWh installed capacity, accounting for 11.9%, mainly used in the EV passenger car market (accounting for 77.5%). The main reason is that the soft pack battery case is relatively light, and the safety factor is It is also relatively high. In the pursuit of energy density today, in order to reduce the risk factor, car companies and battery manufacturers are more welcome to soft pack batteries. This is also the main reason why some people are optimistic about soft pack batteries.
Judging from the situation of battery manufacturers, a total of 61 battery core manufacturers installed in September, of which only 10 have a share of more than 1%. The total market share of these 10 companies is as high as 91.4%. Overall, the monopoly of the market is gradually Intensified. In September, the combined market share of CATL and BYD was close to 70%, which was a certain degree higher than that of the previous months. Tianjin Lishen has a better performance this year because of its rich heritage. The location of the name. Guoxuan High-Tech has not made a breakthrough in the installation of NCM ternary battery, which obviously affected its market ranking.
2, in the first three quarters of 2018, the total installed capacity was 29.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 91.7%.
According to the data of True Lithium Research, in the first three quarters of 2018, China's electric vehicle market achieved a total of 29.5GWh of lithium-ion installed capacity, a significant increase of 91.7% compared with 15.4GWh in the same period of last year. The results are very beautiful. The economic environment is sluggish. It helps the development of emerging industries.
Specifically, the EV passenger car market installed 16.1GWh in the first three quarters, accounting for 54.4%, which is the most important driving force; 116.1% year-on-year growth is also ranked second among all types of vehicles. EV bus market cumulative Installed 8.7GWh, only half of the EV passenger car is far behind, but it has increased by 101.6% year-on-year, and the overall performance is good.
From the perspective of various types of batteries, among the total installed capacity of 29.5GWh in the first three quarters, the NCM ternary battery accounted for 60% of 17.7GWh. As in the previous eight months, the specific gravity is stable; among them, 79% of NCM ternary batteries are used. EV passenger car. Lithium iron phosphate battery accounted for 37.8% of the total installed capacity of 11.2GWh, which is also equivalent to the previous 8 months, of which 8.4GWh is used for EV passenger cars, accounting for 74.9%. See the table below for details.
From the various shapes of batteries, the total installed capacity of 29.5GWh in the first three quarters was 22.2GWh, accounting for 75.2%. In addition to the PHEV bus market, in the other four types of vehicle market, the square battery installed accounted for a significant majority. In the EV passenger car market, the installed capacity accounted for 91.2%; the installed capacity in the EV passenger car market also reached 68.6%, exceeding 2/3. Soft pack batteries and cylindrical batteries accounted for 3.8GWh and 3.5GWh respectively. % and 12.0% are mainly used in the EV passenger car market. The PHEV bus market mainly uses soft pack batteries, which is related to the many years of deep cultivation in this market.
The following table shows the statistics of the top 20 installed lithium batteries in China's electric vehicle market in the first three quarters of 2018. In the first three quarters, 86 battery core manufacturers achieved installed capacity, of which the top 20 accounted for 94.5% of the market. CATL installed with 12.1GWh. The total is far ahead of other battery manufacturers, with a market share of 41.1%; BYD ranks second with 7.0GWh, although the gap with CATL is large, but also a large margin ahead of many manufacturers behind; Xuan Gaoke and Tianjin Lishen belong to an echelon, and their total installed capacity exceeds 1GWh. The total market share of these top 5 is as high as 78.3%.
3, after words
The rapid landslide in the traditional car market was unexpected by Mokko, but from the actual progress, this obviously stimulated the development of electric vehicles. According to this situation in September, the Chinese electric vehicle market is likely to dry up to 1.2 million vehicles this year. The installed capacity may exceed 50GWh. Although it seems to be a prosperous scene, but Mo Ke is more and more uneasy. There are still two more words to say. 'Fast' to meet the technical requirements of the New Deal and the resumption of group procurement (the latter we Will seek the verification of relevant data), it may make the safety of vehicles and the financial problems of enterprises become more prominent. The development of China's electric vehicle industry chain may experience a burst after the bubble boom in the near future. When will it be in the future, it may be this time next year, or it may be the year after. After the bubble bursts, the water is squeezed out and the road is back. For the enterprises in the industrial chain and the capital that is committed to investing in the new energy industry, it needs to be ' Nirvana rebirth' is coming to make relevant preparations. In general, the bubble burst is not a bad thing, but it will be very painful. The road to car electrification is not Blocked, and we must have confidence.
