Since October, the acrylonitrile market has been filled with empty atmosphere. As of October 19, the market reference price was $18100, down 5.6% compared with the average monthly price.
The industry is widely expected, in the raw materials propylene market lower, poor downstream demand situation, acrylonitrile market will be weak shocks, difficult to meet the peak season trend.
Look at the empty mood diffuse ' In the previous period, the Acrylonitrile market had reached its full-year highs by September. However, as the pre-production equipment resumed, the market supply increased. In the downstream demand is not prosperous situation, the market view empty sentiment dominates.
"Fushun Petrochemical Company acrylic analyst Zhao Chuang that the market outlook for Acrylonitrile is more likely to lower." According to Zhao Chuang, the production of acrylonitrile decreased by 11.19% in August as a result of partial installation maintenance. such as Jiangsu State 260,000 tons/year plant shutdown overhaul, Shanghai Secco a 130,000 tons/year production line was discontinued in mid-August, Anqing petrochemical plant load slightly slipped 10%~30%. In this case, the market supply of acrylonitrile in September was tight and prices climbed.
However, into the October, these pre-maintenance equipment resumed production, the market supply to loose, the focus of the shift shifted, watching atmosphere rich.
Reduced cost support ' Early acrylonitrile market all the way, the main driver is the raw materials propylene market firm. However, recently with the polypropylene period spot both tumbled, market bad frequency out, propylene market offer loose, downward trend has become a foregone conclusion, acrylonitrile cost support weakened.
' Zhao Chuang thought. In his opinion, there are three reasons why the market for propylene is lower. First, downstream polypropylene market lower drag. After the national day, polypropylene futures began to lower, the market atmosphere gradually cooled. At present, the petrochemical enterprise inventory has reached more than 800,000 tons, enterprises have to reduce the inventory intention. Second, in the early October, a number of propylene downstream factories into the overhaul state, the need to gradually turn pale. Third, due to regional downstream enterprises parking, propylene supply increased, impact on the market. Recently, the northeast of Jinxi Petrochemical downstream polypropylene plant, Jilin Shenhua propylene oxide plant, such as parking overhaul, resulting in propylene inventory accumulation, the northeast source of large inflows to Shandong.
Affected by this, Shandong Propylene refinery offer dropped sharply. As at October 16, the main market for propylene in Shandong province decreased by 100 yuan, or 0.98%, and the main market in the northeast was down 350 yuan, or 3.63%, and the main market in East China fell 175 yuan, or 1.76%, and the main market price fell 100 yuan, or 1.04%.
The decline in propylene is already open and the market for acrylonitrile is lacking in cost support.
Downstream demand is not booming ' From the demand side, the downstream industry is generally poorly run, dragging the market upward of acrylonitrile.
"Liaoning acrylonitrile trader Li Qiang analysis said.
According to Li Qiang introduction, the downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in China is mainly in acrylic, ABS and acrylamide three major industries. This year, ABS market is far less than last year. According to statistics, this January-July abs ton profit of about 2000 yuan. However, since the end of July, the cost of ABS climbed to about 15500 yuan due to higher upstream raw material prices. However, the cost increases at the same time, the market supply is also increasing, the factory factory price maintained in 15000~15500 Yuan, the apparent profit basic loss 100~500 yuan.
As a result of long-term profit shrinkage, beginning in mid-October, Zhenjiang Chimei, LG Yong Hing and other joint venture companies have different degrees of negative news spread, affecting the market demand for acrylonitrile. Acrylic industry is also not prosperous season, the deal atmosphere is always depressed. In September, the domestic acrylic fiber industry average operating rate of about 50%, production of about 33,000 tons, the chain fell 25.4%. Recently, the load of Jilin chemical fiber plant dropped to 50%-70%; daqing Petrochemical Acrylic Fiber Unit is in the vicinity of 80%, and the load of Qilu petrochemical acrylic fiber device is about 60%; the load of Hangzhouwan acrylic fiber device is about 60%; the load of Ningbo new acrylic fiber device is about 60%.