In September 2018, passenger car sales ushered in three consecutive months of negative growth. The narrow passenger car was -13.2% year-on-year. It was different from 09, and the negative growth in three consecutive years since 15 years immediately stimulated the policy. To the high-level voice, the purchase tax reduction policy has just exited less than one year, the financial expenditure itself is tense, and the diversion of funds in the third- and fourth-tier property markets makes this policy combination punch more difficult to introduce than in history; In the voice, new energy sales in September still maintained a growth rate of 73.4% year-on-year. It is not easy to maintain high growth in the case of a high base in September last year, followed by the release of a leading domestic new energy vehicle industry. In the third quarter, the non-net profit in the third quarter is expected to increase by 120%-130%, and the first three quarters will not increase by 80%-88%, which greatly exceeds market expectations. Why can the power battery industry rise against the trend in a cold winter? What is happening in the power battery industry of the most bitter midstream industry in the 'upstream and downstream downstream', is the industry turning to the turning point?
Upstream resource prices have fallen sharply
In the past year, the price of core raw materials for lithium batteries has dropped significantly.
Figure 1. The price trend of battery grade lithium carbonate in the past year
Figure 2. The price trend of electrolytic cobalt and advanced cobalt in the past year
From June to September this year, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 130,000 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt dropped from 600,000 yuan/ton to 480,000 yuan/ton. How much can these prices affect the gross profit of the battery factory? , Let's do some calculation, calculate the current shipment of the three yuan 523 material, per ton of LiNi 0.5Co 0.2Mn 0.3O2According to the chemical formula, about 0.383 tons of Li is required. 2CO 3, 1.36 tons of NiSO 4*6H2O, 0.58 tons of CoSO 4*7H2O and 0.53 tons of MnSO 4*H2O, if only two calculations of lithium carbonate and cobalt sulfate account for a relatively large cost, compared with a year ago, a 523 material is reduced by 3-4 million yuan and 0.5-1 million yuan respectively. Battery cost 30-40% calculation, today's power battery upstream cost decreased by 8%-10% compared with the same period of last year, even compared with the first half of this year, there is a 3%-5% decline, while the general power battery manufacturers and downstream automakers The agreed prices are calculated on an annual basis, which will lead to a significant increase in the gross profit of power battery companies in the short term. The gross profit of the leading enterprises in the Ningde era is expected to rise to 35%-36% in the third quarter, and this is for some gross profit shipments at low levels. A small or newly created power battery company is undoubtedly good news, which means that it is very likely to cross the breakeven directly. If you look back, with the release of lithium carbonate capacity, the price of lithium carbonate may remain at the same time. Low, and cobalt also lacked upside momentum in the short term, so the gross profit recovery of the power battery industry is expected to remain.
Equipment level increases production efficiency, capital investment declines
At present, along with the leading intelligent equipment of domestic equipment, the rise of domestic leading equipment companies such as Shenzhen Xinjiatuo, the equipment investment of new production lines has been greatly reduced compared with two years ago. Taking the current investment capacity of 1GWh as an example, only equipment investment was 2 years ago. Up to 300-500 million yuan, and the automation rate is low, but the current input of 1GWh capacity equipment investment only needs 150-200 million yuan, and equipment reliability, automation efficiency is greatly improved, assuming that this production line is full, according to equipment for 6 years Straight-line depreciation method, for the new power of the battery, currently only one production equipment, the annual depreciation cost is reduced by 30-500 million yuan compared with its predecessors, if the cost per kwh is reduced by 30-50 yuan, accounting for At present, the cost of the entire battery system is 3.33% (calculated according to the price of 1200 yuan per kwh); on the other hand, the automation rate of the new production line is often higher, still calculated according to the production line of 1gwh, and the new production line needs about 80 workers. -150 people, and the production line needs about 300 people two years ago. According to the labor cost of 80,000 yuan/year, the labor cost as a new battery force can reduce the annual production capacity per gwh by more than 10 million yuan. New electricity production line About 10 yuan, so the efficiency gain effect brought by the new production line is reduced by about 5% compared with two years ago. Therefore, if the new battery industry led by an old driver, the productivity will be able to be productive in a short time. For a quick release, it has a strong competitive advantage over the old capacity.
The industry talent echelon builds a market without worry before 2020
China's new energy auto industry is gradually maturing, and the level of power battery technology is gradually shrinking with Japan and South Korea. Compared with the industry just broke out in 2013, a large number of experienced battery technicians have appeared in the market. With the outflow of talents from Japanese and Korean manufacturers, the technical reserve talents in the Asia-Pacific region have gradually merged, and the production process has also matured. One company is becoming less dependent on a few experts, and is increasingly pursuing the enterprise. Comprehensive management and control strength, battery cost and cost performance have become the core competitiveness of the product. For the market, the concentration of Ningde era is still concentrated, basically monopolizing the passenger car enterprises in China except BYD, compared to last year. By September 2018, the market share of catl has reached 43.06%, which is an increase of nearly 17% compared with the same period of last year. It can be said that the concentration of the passenger car power battery market is quite concentrated.
Compared with the passenger car market, the special vehicle and energy storage market are relatively scattered and the market space is wider. This is undoubtedly the main battlefield of the new power battery. In the face of the oil price increase, the market is expected to be replenished after 2020. The expectation of new energy vehicle breaks is also gradually changing. According to Tianfeng Securities' forecast, the ternary battery will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 40% in the next five years. In fact, demand growth is still very rapid.
Figure 3. Tianfeng Securities global ternary battery demand forecast
For CATL, the leading battery companies in the industry such as BYD are mainly targeted at large OEMs and shipped globally. The average quality products will also be preferentially supplied to the head customers, while the relatively scattered small vehicle orders and It is difficult for customers of special-purpose car factories to get a quick response, and this also gives the market space of new power battery more obvious. In the short-term, China's power battery market CATL, BYD two strong pattern will continue, but with the intervention of new forces, the top 20 Other battery companies are expected to usher in earth-shaking changes.
To sum up, 2018 is undoubtedly a year of reshuffle of the power battery industry. Nearly 100 companies have gradually faded out of the vision of OEMs. In addition to small and medium-sized enterprises, the early stage is not strong, and large-scale battery companies that have been overpowering have also fallen into succession. Difficulties, such as Watmar, etc. On the other hand, with the price reduction of upstream resource materials, the gross profit of the power battery has been significantly improved since the second half of 2018. For the new power battery, due to recent years The continuous decline in equipment prices, the improvement of automation rate, the gradual improvement of product standardization and the improvement of industry talents, the new power battery companies will gain significant cost investment advantages; the new energy vehicle market is still growing rapidly; mainstream battery companies are The strength of domestic car companies has also forced more and more car companies to gradually accept and choose new battery companies. Therefore, it is expected that the new power battery will still face better market opportunities in the past two years.
