Due to the loose price of the upstream cost terminal, the recent PTA futures continued to fall, and fell for five consecutive trading days. As of the close of the 17th, Zhengzhou PTA1901 contract reported 7236 yuan / ton, down 56 yuan / ton, or 0.77%, compared with the previous trading day, Volume decreased to 902,000 contracts, and positions decreased by 18,694 lots to 915,000 hands.
Analysts pointed out that the price hike in the early period led to the recent correction of PTA prices, but as the prices of upstream PX and naphtha continued to fall, cost support began to appear. In addition, downstream demand will gradually pick up, and PTA equipment will be overhauled in October. Contraction, with improved supply and demand, PTA has limited downside.
Cost support
For the recent weak performance of PTA, market participants believe that mainly due to the upstream PX price correction, coupled with the compression of PTA processing fees, the market lacks new profits, and the PTA futures price is adjusted.
As of October 16, the Asian PX market closed at $1,280/ton FOB Korea and $1300/ton CFR China, which was down $22.67/ton from the previous trading day.
'Asian PX price closed down to 1280 US dollars / ton - 1,300 US dollars / ton, according to processing fee of 500 yuan / ton, PTA duty-paid cost is about 7358 yuan / ton - 7464 yuan / ton. Domestic PTA spot price fell slightly, Asian PX price The price of polyester was basically flat; from the cost point of view, the price of upstream PX and naphtha continued to fall, and the cost support was loose. 'Ruida Futures said.
PAN-Anwar futures analyst Pang Chunyan said that PX-naphtha price difference is still at a high level, PTA processing fee is once again compressed to less than 700 yuan / ton, cost support appears. PTA installation for more reason and planned overhaul, supply contraction in October However, the polyester operating rate rebounded slowly. The sales of polyester filaments fell again, the market mentality was weak, orders were normal, and the downstream will maintain rigid replenishment, but it is difficult to continue to boost PTA.
'In the industrial chain, PX's profit has a large compression space, which is the main basis for long-term shorting. Fuhua's 1.6 million tons of PX formation supply may be in November or even later, and the short-term PX is moderately profitable, but it is expected to continue to maintain its preferred profit. Continue to support the PTA price. 'Pang Chunyan analysis.
Short-term or weak adjustment
In terms of fundamentals, in terms of supply, Hanbang's 2.2 million tons of equipment was restarted, Yizheng Chemical Fiber's 650,000 tons of equipment was overhauled, and PTA started to adjust to 73.81%. In terms of demand, downstream demand will gradually pick up, and downstream demand will gradually pick up. The polyester load is 84.81%.
After the festival, the terminal load recovery is obvious, the polyester gradually starts to restart, the load is increased, the PTA maintenance at the supply end is concentrated, and the concentration is good. The overall supply and demand in October is expected to be balanced. 'Cinda Futures Research said.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Fangzheng mid-term futures analyst Liang Jiakun analysis, overall, in October PTA equipment maintenance, supply contraction, production reduction polyester equipment restart, PTA supply and demand improvement, PTA down space is limited.
Technically, Ruida Futures analyzed that yesterday's PTA futures price closed down, the decline narrowed, the test below 7100 yuan / ton area quickly rebounded, the upper test 7500 yuan / ton regional pressure level, short-term PTA tends to range volatility. Operation On, trading in the range of 7100 yuan / ton - 7500 yuan / ton.