In September, the domestic aggregate MDI market showed a spiral downward trend. Although there were two attempts to rebound in the middle, but ultimately failed to counterattack, the 'Jinjiu' market was broken. In October, the aggregate MDI supply side is still sufficient, and the raw material support is weak. In addition, demand remains sluggish, and industry insiders believe that the 'Silver Ten' market is unlikely to have a big improvement, and it is likely to continue to be weak.
Market bearish is still
Li Hong, Marketing Manager of Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd. said that this year's aggregate MDI market is not the same as last year. Last year, the price of aggregated MDI was around 40,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). In September this year, Shanghai The price of goods was 13700~14,000 yuan, which was 3,000 yuan compared with the end of August. The price of Wanhua PM200 with the ticket was down by 4,000 yuan compared with the end of August. This means that the recent price has dropped nearly three points compared with last year. of two.
According to Li Hong, although the manufacturers control the price, the industry is basically pessimistic about the MDI market in October. The latest news also shows that Wanhua's aggregate MDI in October has lowered the listing price of dealers by 1,500 yuan; Huntsman In October, the MDI listing price was lowered by 4,500 yuan from the previous month, which increased the market's bearish atmosphere.
Raw material support is weak
From the point of view of the raw material aniline of polymeric MDI, 'Jinjiu' out of the 'V' shape trend, the overall market is not ideal. At the end of September, the mainstream transaction price of Jiangsu market was 8,700 yuan, down 300 yuan from the end of August, a drop of 3.33%; the mainstream of Shandong market The price of 8520 yuan was accepted from the offer, down 200 yuan from the end of August, a decrease of 2.29%.
The industry is not optimistic about the aniline market in October. A person in charge of a production company said that after the market outlook, the aniline production enterprise Shandong Jinling Dongying installation plan to drive after the National Day, Yangon aniline equipment resumed supply in early October. Although the Cornell aniline device There is an overhaul plan, but it has less supply to the market, so the overall supply has increased.
In addition, after October 1st, some areas in the north ushered in a new round of environmental protection and production, and the United States added 10% tariff to China's 200 billion US dollars of products. The tire field is greatly affected, so the downstream needs to be hard to see. Impact, it is expected that the aniline market will fluctuate around the cost line in October, and it is unlikely that it will rise sharply. It is difficult to form a support for the aggregated MDI on the cost side.
Slow start of demand
Polymeric MDI is the main raw material for the production of polyurethane foam insulation materials, floor materials, various adhesives and other polyurethane products. For polymeric MDI, the biggest negative still comes from the demand side.
According to industry insiders, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment launched the ODS enforcement action on July 28, and the illegal use of polyurethane rigid foaming agents became the focus of law enforcement. At present, many provinces and cities across the country have launched special enforcement actions. As a result, the operating rate of foaming agent production enterprises has remained low. In the medium and long term, environmental protection pressures continue to rise, leading to a difficult improvement in the demand for polymeric MDI.
In 2018, the property market 'Golden Nine' was not available, and the cooling has arrived. The data for the first half of September showed that the 40-city residential transaction increased by only 1% from the previous month; the cumulative transaction area decreased by 16% year-on-year. With the cold weather in the property market, refrigerators, color TVs and other appliances during the peak season. The market also has varying degrees of fading, affecting the amount of polymeric MDI.
In addition, global trade frictions still have an upward trend, which will impact the global economy, and the long-term impact on the commodity market. China has adopted policies to stimulate domestic demand, reduce taxes, develop the private economy, and further open up to offset the trade war. The negative, but the positive effect will take time. The current consumption season has passed more than one-third, and the lack of aggregated MDI 'silver ten' has become a consensus in the market.
In summary, the aggregated MDI market 'Golden Nine' dream has been broken, in October on the supply side, the cost side and the demand side of the three sides of the air, the market is difficult to make a big difference.