In the past 1 months, PTA market out of a wave of sharp decline. In the business community September textile commodity price rise and fall, PTA decreased by 14.22% to the bottom of the position.
Last week, PTA (East China) market reference price of 8082 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared to the beginning of September fell 13%.
Insiders believe that recently in the installation of centralized maintenance, downstream demand, and the cost of strong positive factors under the role of the PTA market is expected to break the deadlock, again into the rising channel.
High oil prices Recently, the international crude oil price soared, for the PTA market injected cost support. Since this year, crude oil production agreement has been landing, coupled with the United States sanctions on Iran, the international crude oil market supply is expected to be tight, prices hit record highs.
"Fushun Petrochemical Economic analyst Wang Lu analysis said. In the near-stage, the Iranian issue is fermented again. News that the U.S. sanctions against OPEC's third-largest oil producer, Iran, will come into effect on November 4, and the US wants governments and companies to stop buying Iranian crude to put pressure on Iran's re-commercial nuclear deal.
Analysts expect Iranian crude exports to fall by about 1 million barrels a day. The news led to a tense market mentality, with Brent crude futures pushing up to more than $86 a barrel in early October, the highest in nearly 4 years. In fact, Iran's crude oil production has begun to fall significantly before that, down to 3.63 million barrels/day as of August, the lowest level since 2016. Among the importing countries, South Korea has stopped importing Iranian crude and China has also reduced imports, and India's imports of Iranian crude fell sharply in August. International crude supplies are still in tight balance, given the slowdown in U.S. production growth.
In this role, crude oil prices will continue to operate high, and the oil price is highly correlated with the naphtha and PX market will be running high, the cost of the role of transmission to the PTA market.
Supply Crunch ' Due to the September PTA market decline repeatedly, the early high-load operation of PTA production Enterprises since the end of September began to arrange maintenance. From the current market news, October, involving the overhaul capacity of over 11 million tons/year, will inevitably lead to a reduction in market supply.
"Liaoning Polyester Dealer Zhang Daping Introduction said. At the end of September, Ningbo Yat shing 650,000 tons/year PTA plant for parking overhaul, restart time to be determined; October 9, Chongqing Peng Wei Petrochemical 900,000 tons/year of plant parking overhaul, plan 7-10 days; petrochemical 2.2 million tons/year plant parking overhaul, Shenghong petrochemical 1.5 million tons/year device,
Hengli Petrochemical No. 2nd 2.2 million tons/year device, Zhuhai BP The 1.1 million-ton/year unit is scheduled for October mid-late parking overhaul.
At present, PTA industry start rate has dropped to 72.93%, compared to the beginning of September down 9.65%. Zhang Daping that in October, many PTA plant overhaul, and downstream of the polyester industry part of the early parking equipment is expected to restart.
Rigid demand warmer, will further deepen the PTA market supply and demand tensions, thereby pushing up the market price.
Stronger demand
October, PTA's main downstream polyester industry into the production and sales season, the formation of rigid demand to boost. According to Zhang Daping, October is the traditional season of polyester filament. National Day holiday before, enterprises to increase preferential strength, coupled with long holidays to boost production and sales, polyester market experienced the September downturn began to enter the rebound channel, prices have risen, the current production and sales rate in more than 100% of the high. Last week, Rongsheng polyester filament price per ton rose 50~100 yuan, new fengming polyester Poy per ton rose 50 yuan, Heng Yi Petrochemical per ton polyester Poy rose 50 yuan.
Although the current rise is not big, but the upward trend has already appeared. Benefits, so that polyester production enterprises enthusiasm, early production or drop negative enterprises have negative or restart, the industry started rate rebounded to about 82%. National Day holiday, the total capacity of 700,000 tons/year of polyester plant restart.
Recently there are new production capacity, such as Fujian 200,000 tons/old silk new device production at the end of September.