Before the National Day, middlemen and downstream appropriate margins, domestic petrochemical inventory control at a low level. After the holiday, although petrochemical stocks have increased, but the overall is not high, in the rise of crude oil, futures high support, petrochemicals continue to rise, downstream through festival consumption After the festival, the bank continued to replenish the market, and the market was pushed upwards. As the price continued to rise, the transaction was cautious and the shipment was not smooth. After mid-October, the market ended up rapidly, and the high price fell. For the later market, the author believes that although The overall economic outlook is weak, but considering the high crude oil, some resources are not available, and the demand is supported by the peak season. The downside is temporarily limited, mainly to absorb the increase in early October.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on the 8th that it will cut its forecast for world economic growth to 3.7% this year and next, and warned that increased trade tensions are the main threat to the world economy. The report points out that the downside risks to world economic growth have risen. At the same time, due to the weakening growth momentum of emerging and developing economies, the financial situation has tightened, and the possibility that the world economy is stronger than expected has declined. Lowering economic expectations has increased fears in the commodity market. On October 7, the People’s Bank of China announced again. On the same day, the Ministry of Finance announced that it is considering further tax cuts and fee reduction measures. Relevant industry insiders believe that in the case of market liquidity is already loose, the central bank’s round of RRR cuts clearly conveys 'wide Currency, stable credit's policy signals and expectations. The follow-up of monetary policy transmission channels will be the policy focus.
Although the economy is short, but the crude oil is high, and the demand is supported by the peak season, the market should have limited space at the current price level. The oil price continues to be 70-80 US dollars/barrel high, which supports the cost of oil-based polyethylene. According to theoretical calculations, crude oil 70 -80 US dollars / barrel, oil companies profit margins have been greatly squeezed, the cost of support for the market should be reflected. Another important supporting factor is the demand peak season expectations, the export of Christmas goods demand, double eleven e-commerce promotional goods Inventories, the demand for express delivery packaging increased. The agricultural film is in the peak demand season, the orders are gradually followed, and the membrane enterprises are gradually upgraded. The general operating rate of large enterprises is 6-8%, the daily output is 50-80 tons, and the output of individual large factories is 100. More than ton. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises ranges from 3 to 80%, and the daily output is 15-30 tons.