Unsaturated resin: Commodity | 'Pu Sheng' | UPR raw material center of gravity

After the National Day, the commodity market as a whole showed a 'popular increase' market, and many varieties rose sharply. Chemical products performed more strongly. International crude oil recently operated at a high level, boosting the market for chemical products, and the black line continued after the holiday, plastic, PVC, methanol PTA and other products also went up. Most of the products in the spot market opened slightly higher. Unsaturated resin raw materials also basically stabilized, and styrene, ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, phthalic anhydride and other products gradually recovered, and the main raw materials rose slightly. The factory resumed procurement after the festival, and the transaction was slightly heavy.

In terms of international energy, US crude oil hit a four-year high. Although it has retreated in recent trading days, the supply shortage caused by the upcoming Iranian crude oil sanctions date is expected to continue to push oil prices upwards, based on oil-producing countries responding to Iran. After the sanctions came into effect, most investment banks believe that the global crude oil market will be in short supply in 20019, which will reach 400,000 barrels per day, which is higher than the previous estimate of 300,000 barrels per day. This will lead to Brent at the end of the second quarter of 2019. The crude oil price target was raised from the previous estimate of $90/barrel to $95/barrel, of which Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned that it does not even rule out the possibility of a sharp rise in oil prices similar to 2008.

Therefore, the warming of energy has driven some chemical products to strengthen. In the context of the overall atmosphere, the turnover of unsaturated resin materials has shifted upwards, and the cost support for UPR has appeared. In terms of styrene, it continues the National Day. Before the high level of consolidation, some traders made up the amount of positions, due to the slow recovery of demand after the downstream festival, the factory's purchasing intentions were cautious in the face of high positions, but the strong atmosphere of commodities also infected with styrene is difficult to fall, according to Zhongyu monitoring, downstream of styrene The equipment is planned to be overhauled, but the impact on the market is weakened. In addition, the recent good depreciation of the RMB and the reduction of domestic monetary policy are also beneficial to the styrene industry.

In terms of maleic anhydride, the rise was temporarily stagnant. Due to the rapid rise before the National Day, the high price of the factory was not smooth, and the short-term domestic maleic anhydride market was at a high level. However, the performance of phthalic anhydride products was strong, and the market of phthalic anhydride was stable. At this stage, the phthalic anhydride industry still has a parking phenomenon; the downstream DOP gains space still exists; the oil price is strong under the o-xylene, and the cost support is maintained; and the related naphthalene phthalic anhydride has a tendency to increase in price. Ethylene glycol and ethylene dioxide The rebound trend of alcohol stability has strengthened. Recently, the ethylene glycol and diethylene glycol markets are moderately strong in the market, and the downstream replenishment expectations and electronic disk pulls are expected to rise.

It is understood that under the cost support of unsaturated resin plants, manufacturers maintain stable shipments. Most large plants have stable load and normal production during the National Day. Therefore, raw material stocks are also in the middle and lower levels. Actively introduced, reducing taxes and reducing the burden on enterprises, the central bank lowered reserves, released liquidity, and in the context of China's unprecedented severe external challenges, raising the export tax rebate rate is a pressure to reduce the pressure on foreign trade enterprises. From November 1, 2018 , the current export tax rebate rate of goods is 15% and part of 13% to 16%; 9% to 10%, part of which is raised to 13%; 5% to 6%, part to 10%. The export tax rebate rate for products with high energy consumption, high pollution, resource products and de-capacity tasks remains unchanged. Some downstream industries of unsaturated resins have also raised the export tax rebate rate twice this year, which is conducive to stable production of enterprises. For the winter environmental protection and production limit is no longer one-size-fits-all, comprehensive factors or for the 'silver ten' market is late.