Before the domestic propylene oxide national holiday, the cost and demand continued to play, the market continued to consolidate, it was difficult to get up, the upstream and downstream were good and bad, the deadlock was difficult to break, and it is expected that the PO will remain stable during the holiday period. Rising space, but the industry is more divergent about the post-holiday market, mainly due to the release of the multi-party news after the holiday and uncertainty to disrupt the post-holiday mentality of the industry.
First of all, look at the cost side. Recently, in addition to the raw material propylene once again climbing slightly, the raw material liquid chlorine unexpectedly 'protruded' the price has changed and the situation has risen rapidly, and the price has risen to 800-1000 yuan/ton in a few days. Cost, the domestic chlorohydrin method propylene oxide profit has shrunk significantly, leading to the chloro-alcohol method factory eager to try, the price of the court is revived, but given the near-fake holiday and the demand for polyether is flat, PO has limited volatility under the current high price in the current year. After the holiday, the price of raw material propylene will continue to operate in the high range. The overall price fluctuation range is limited, and the support for PO cost remains. However, whether the liquid chlorine price can continue to be such a high level after the holiday becomes a major factor for the downstream industry to measure the bearish after PO. The Xinfa chlor-alkali plant is still uncertain about the period of resumption of production. Although the supply surface is positive, the quotation of liquid chlorine enterprises continues to rise, the downstream receiving capacity is not strong, and under the pressure of high cost, some downstream purchases are reduced. Zhongyu Information expects The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong continued to continue at a positive price in mid-October, but it is difficult to maintain such a high price after the holiday. However, in the case of liquid chlorine, it is difficult to quickly turn to the situation, Method oxide support costs still exist, from postganglionic PO temporarily difficult to look down the background.
Under the support of cost support, the factors affecting the price fluctuation of domestic propylene oxide after the holiday are mainly subject to supply and demand. From the perspective of supply side, Shandong Binhua Dongrui Plant plans to stop and repair 10.11-10.21, but Dongrui PO equipment The polyether self-use in the supply field has a limited impact on the overall PO. Dongying Huatai and Tianjin Daxie are both expected to save and repair after the holiday. In the context of the lack of inventory pressure in the PO factory, the main factory inspection after the holiday is bound to give them Confidence in price, but if Jishen drove smoothly, it is expected to dispel the PO factory's hope of going up. In terms of demand, during the holiday period, many major polyether factories in Shandong and East China will be shut down for maintenance, Blue Star Dongda, Dickson Federation, Binzhou Jiahua, Jurong Ningwu, Hongbaoli, Kelia, Jiangsu Jinqi and other parking maintenance plans, and the only impact on the market is only Bluestar Dongda, Dongda plan 10.9-10.12 Parking maintenance, parking PO will stop purchasing during the parking period, but continue to purchase during the holiday period to reserve stocks to ensure the supply of polyether core households, while other major polyether factories in Shandong also maintain normal purchases during the holiday period. here Under the scene, it is still difficult to accumulate too much inventory after the PO factory returns, and the terminal just needs the node to start after the festival, which still becomes an important factor that drives the polyether order to indirectly affect the PO demand. Although the terminal raw material inventory is low, it is subject to TDI. The worries caused by the release of new capacity of Wanhua and the ups and downs of the PO market are unclear. The more conservative and prudent and moderately demanding, the overall demand in October may not be strong, which also clamped up the PO and polyether upside.
In summary, the overall cost and demand side of the game in October, the domestic propylene oxide continues to fluctuate in the high price range, but the overall price center of gravity is slightly lower than September. In the phase of the cost and supply and demand phase, After the holiday, the price of PO is difficult to turn down quickly. After the collision of the downstream node, there is no shortage of the price of the factory after the PO factory. However, the recovery after the Jishen Festival may be larger, and the demand for the Dongda Polyether after the maintenance of the vehicle is weakened. Uncertainty disturbs the mentality of the industry, and the post-holiday is good and bad, and further guidance is needed.