Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, made a wonderful review of the development of China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2018 and made an outlook on the development situation in the second half of the year.
First of all, in the industrial chain, overall, China's manufacturing results in the first half of this year are still gratifying. The output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components has exceeded 20%. In terms of silicon materials, prices have steadily declined, '531 After that, more than ten silicon material manufacturers began to stop production and maintenance. Although the profitability of the company was good in January-May, the company may start to lose money in the third quarter. The price of the wafer link dropped seriously. Due to the drop in raw material prices, the production cost of silicon wafers continued. Declining, leading enterprises have certain profitability. In addition, due to the influence of the downstream market, the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers is relatively stable, and the market share is gradually increasing. The technical upgrade of the battery chips is still continuing and accelerating, and the battery conversion efficiency is improved. The main channel to reduce costs. In terms of components, due to the less than expected surge in the first half of the year, the price of components continued to fall. After the '531', it fell below 2 yuan/watt, and the half-year drop reached nearly 30%. Many component companies are at a loss.
According to the data released by Wang Bohua, China's New Deal PV installed capacity was 24GW last year, which was basically flat year-on-year. The distributed installed capacity was about 12GW, which was nearly 70% year-on-year. It can be seen that the development of distributed is very rapid, especially the development of household PV exceeds expectations. .
In response to the international trade problems faced by the photovoltaic industry, Wang Bohua believes that enhancing competitiveness is a magic weapon to deal with trade wars. He said that trade protection is not a way out, so we don't have to be too pessimistic about the global market. At present, our domestic PV The industry should take a solid guarantee to improve internal strength and enhance industrial competitiveness; take a strong and stable domestic market as a solid rear; and use an active and effective strategic layout as an effective means to deal with trade wars.
Regarding the domestic policy environment, Wang Bohua said that the current policy focuses on guiding the industry to a high-quality development path, and the industry will develop in the direction of pursuing quality and efficiency.
Regarding the trend of the PV market in the future, Wang Bohua believes that in terms of the length of the year, China is still the world's largest market, and the industry needs to continue to have confidence in the domestic market. At present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in many countries is lower than conventional. Energy, photovoltaic market is being stimulated, it is expected that the global PV market will maintain a steady growth momentum. In addition, under the current market environment, the obvious decline in China's market is also an indisputable fact, the domestic PV industry needs to focus on the layout of foreign markets, and from Pursuing the transformation of scale and speed to quality and efficiency. Specifically, the manufacturing industry should be digital, networked and intelligent; system integration should be driven by innovation and diversified towards application; power stations should explore models such as wall sales. In 2018, the newly installed PV capacity is 35GW or above.
