On September 11, the spot price of PTA rose to 9320 yuan, which was 3305 yuan higher than the starting point of this wave of rising - 6015 yuan on July 19, an increase of 54.9%. Subsequently, the market reversed the down market. At the end of September The spot price of PTA fell to 7820 yuan, down 1400 yuan from the 11th, a drop of 15.2%.
'The pre-PTA gains have fund speculation. With the September contract entering the delivery, the market's enthusiasm for the market has weakened. The downstream polyester production and sales are weak, and the factory has reduced production significantly. The PTA has already accumulated a phenomenon. With the futures lower, it is expected The reversal of the downturn will continue for some time. 'Longzhong Information PTA analyst Sun Xueyu and other industry analysts believe that.
The biggest negative in the PTA market is the weakening of demand, leading to inventory accumulation.
75% of domestic PTA is used to produce polyester fiber, and 20% is used to produce bottle grade polyester. Recently, both downstream industries have started to reduce production. 'Below late August, the polyester industry entered a centralized maintenance period. For example, Shaoxing Tiansheng 30 The 10,000-ton/year installation, the Ningbo Dawo 250,000-ton/year installation began to be overhauled. With the September 21st as the node, the overall weekly loss of polyester production reached 100,000 tons, and some large-scale plants are planned to join the production reduction. According to Longzhong Information, in the next month, the weekly loss of polyester production will be around 100,000 tons, equivalent to reducing PTA demand by about 86,500 tons. 'Sun Xueyu said.
Overall, due to the pre-market boom, the operating rate of PTA devices is high. At present, the downstream polyester production and sales are sluggish, and the operating rate is fluctuating between 4 and 5 percent. The terminal is not willing to get the goods, and there are basically stocks. The short-term PTA market is expected to continue its weak pattern.
The futures market has fallen, becoming another big negative for PTA prices.
The data shows that from January to August this year, the correlation between PTA futures price and spot price is as high as 0.99. Therefore, futures price has become the pricing benchmark for spot trade. On September 24, the closing price of PTA main contract 1901 fell to 7212 yuan. The new high point of 8032, which was set on August 30, fell by 850 yuan, a drop of about 10.6%. This led to a weaker spot price of PTA.
'From a fundamental point of view, the previous polyester plant reduced production intensity, especially the production of some large factories led to market psychological collapse, resulting in price collapse. Technical level, the main contract 1901 fell below the 5-day moving average of 7223 yuan, the upper pressure is at the 20-day moving average Around 7585 yuan. At present, the market mentality has recovered. It is expected that the PTA futures price will continue to fluctuate in the short-term, with the range of 7000~7500 yuan. ' Zhuo Chuang PTA analyst Wang Wei said.
The price of raw materials is stable and small, and it is difficult to bring support to the PTA market.
At present, domestic PX is mainly imported from South Korea, Japan and other places. Therefore, the PX market price in Asia directly affects domestic prices. On September 24, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell slightly, closing at USD 1269~1271/ton FOB Korea and 1289~ 1,291 US dollars / ton CFR China, basically stable.
'The overall operating rate of PX equipment in September was about 79%. Qilu petrochemical plant started and stopped coexisting, Zhenhai refining and chemical industry, Fujian United and other several sets of equipment faced maintenance, the supply side of the market was moved down in a narrow range; but Tenglong aromatics 1.6 million tons / year device In November, it faced a restart. As the overall market supply has not changed much, it is expected that the PX price will be stable in October, and it is difficult to support the PTA price increase. 'Sun Xueyu said.