The lithium battery industry has more than 300% supply and demand ratio, but it is still difficult to resist investment enthusiasm. In the half year of over 100 billion mergers and acquisitions, who is making money? Who is playing with fire?
Ice and fire
According to public data, China's power battery capacity reached 101GWh and 154GWh in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The capacity in 2018 is currently forecast at 168GWh.
But on the other hand, although the production of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 10 million units in 2018 has become a high probability event, but the power battery shipments will only reach 45GWh.
More than 300% of the supply and demand upside down pattern is doomed to be the theme of the industry for a period of time.
Under the circumstances that the policy catalysts are heating up, the requirements for power battery energy density are further upgraded. In this context, the number of power battery-related enterprises in China has dropped from 150 in 2016 to less than 100 in 2017.
In the first five months of this year, the total installed capacity of power batteries was about 12.67GWh, a year-on-year increase of 224%. However, from the perspective of the installed capacity of enterprises, the total installed power of the top ten power battery companies totaled 3.83GWh, accounting for 85% of the total. Among them, the Ningde era (300750.SZ) and BYD (002594.SZ) have a high proportion of 43% and 12% market share, far from the second camp.
It belongs to the first camp of the power battery industry. The Ningde era has a very different performance from Watmar. The former achieved a total operating income of 9.36 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, down 45.83% year-on-year. After the net profit of nearly 700 million yuan, an increase of 36.6%; while Jianrui Wooneng (300116.SZ, Watmamu parent company) has a huge loss - the first half of the year, operating income of 3.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.62%; net The profit loss was 1.67 billion yuan, and the profit for the same period last year was 558 million yuan.
Kenrui can say that in the past year, due to the failure of Waterma’s own strategic decision-making, the speed of expansion is too fast, the internal management is out of control, and the adverse changes in the new energy market environment and national policy adjustments are deep, and the debt crisis is deep. Sustained impact, Waterma suffered a large-scale shutdown, and the orders in hand were not able to perform normally.
Where is the Womat blindly expanding? Perhaps the following set of data can give an answer.
In 2017, the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries reached 16.56GWh, a year-on-year increase of 165%, while lithium iron phosphate batteries only loaded 18.07GWh, down 20.12% year-on-year. This is in sharp contrast with the growth of 2016.
However, Waterma has always adhered to the technical route of lithium iron phosphate power battery, which has bought a fortune for its huge losses.
Mainstream technology
The battle between lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has been in existence for a long time. BYD’s persistence and the rise of the Ningde era have further confronted the confrontation between these two technical routes.
In 2017, lithium iron phosphate and ternary two-type batteries dominated the total load, accounting for 93%. Among them, the proportion of ternary batteries was 44.08%, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 49.44%. As the policy requirements for driving range and battery energy density gradually increased, the balance between the two was finally broken.
In the field of battery loading, the 2017 ternary battery loading capacity is 16.05GWh, which is mainly used in pure electric passenger vehicles. Among them, the proportion of pure electric passenger vehicles is 56.14%, on pure electric special vehicles. The proportion of supporting equipment is 34.87%. The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 18.00GWh, and the matching quantity of pure electric passenger car is over 70%. The matching quantity of pure electric passenger car is relatively stable, and it remains at around 16%. In the plug-in hybrid passenger car, the matching amount is decreasing year by year.
According to the data, there are currently 22 supporting battery companies for pure electric passenger car models with 73 or more driving speeds of 400 kilometers, of which 20 are equipped with ternary batteries.
From the perspective of battery technology, 73 of the 73 pure electric passenger car models that have reached or exceeded 400 kilometers continue to use the ternary battery as the technical route, accounting for 83%. The other technical routes account for: lithium iron phosphate 10% battery, 4% multi-component lithium battery, 3% battery type not indicated.
It can be seen that the technical path of the ternary battery is safe and promising at present. Even BYD, which once dominated lithium iron phosphate, has turned its course.
In the first half of 2018, four battery companies, including BYD, announced plans to put into production capacity, which is expected to be put into production.
The battery technology path is becoming increasingly clear, and ternary materials have become the target of capital chasing. According to the incomplete statistics of the Power Battery Application Branch Research Department, the lithium battery industry chain companies in the first half of 2018 have announced the expansion and production of lithium battery cathode materials and mergers and acquisitions projects. The total investment amount is about 31.8 billion yuan, and the total planned production capacity is 56Gwh. Among them, there are 14 investment projects for the expansion of ternary cathode materials and mergers and acquisitions, accounting for more than half of the total investment projects for cathode materials investment in the first half of the year. The project amount exceeds 5 billion.
It can be seen that the ternary path has become an industry entry barrier.
M&A targeting minerals
In the first half of the industry's series of capital operation cases, Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ) announced that it will acquire 23.77% of the global lithium giant SQM for US$4.07 billion, which will make the capital market stand out.
Tianqi Lithium, which maintains high frequency in the capital market, still follows its usual 'decapitation' style - controlling the upstream voice. The Thaleson acquisition has enabled Tianqi Lithium to enter the absolute upstream of the industry, May 2014 Tianqi realized the 51% acquisition of the parent company of Tilson's parent company, Wenfield, and indirectly controlled the Thaleson lithium industry, which cost a total of 5 billion yuan. Since then, Tianqi once monopolized the source of spodumene from all manufacturers in the country. .
As a competitor in the industry, Yanfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. (002460.SZ), which has a dominant position in the processing industry, also aims to target the mining area, in order to break the dilemma of 'subject to people'. Public information shows that Yanfeng Lithium is also working with South Korea's LG. Chemicals approach Mineral ResourcesL to acquire a stake in a lithium mine in Australia. It is reported that the lithium mine is expected to be valued at $3 billion.
On August 14, Yanfeng Lithium announced that it agreed to invest in the Netherlands with a wholly-owned subsidiary, Qifeng International, with a self-owned fund of US$85.3 million to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary “Netherlands Qifeng”; A 50% stake in Argentina's MineraExar will be acquired by SQM for US$60.3 million. MineraExar has a Caui-Olaroz Lithium Salt Lake project in Jujuy Province, Argentina. The first phase plans to produce 25,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate per year. Put into production in 2020.
SQM ushered in two Chinese buyers in a short period of time, and the battle for lithium mines has intensified. According to public statistics, in the first half of 2018, mergers and acquisitions were financed by lithium carbonate, nickel, cobalt, lithium hydroxide and lithium hexafluorophosphate. There are 15 transactions.
