Since September, PTA futures have started a high-level callback. The main contract of 1901 hit a new low of 7,084 yuan/ton on Wednesday, and then the shock stabilized. The latest report was at 7214 yuan/ton. Analysts said that the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms started. The fallback and polyester production cuts continued to be negative for PTA prices, but some PTA manufacturers stopped parking and repaired, which reduced the supply side and provided some support for the futures price. In addition, as the spot price fell, the PTA export window showed signs of opening, and social stocks were difficult. Further accumulation. Therefore, the decline in the PTA futures price will be slowed down.
The price decline is suspended
On September 21, PTA futures showed a strong shock. The main contract of 1901 was up to 7,254 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,214 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.25%.
According to analysts at Ruida Futures Research Institute, from the perspective of cost, the upstream raw material price support was loose, international oil prices fell, and Asian PX prices closed down to 1243.67-1263.67 US dollars / ton, according to processing fee of 500 yuan converted PTA duty-paid cost At 7106-7211 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, PTA part of the manufacturers to stop maintenance, so that the supply side has decreased, while downstream polyester companies continue to reduce production, market production and sales are light, short-term PTA period prices tend to fluctuate.
Spot price, according to Ruida Futures data, the East China PTA futures market fluctuated strongly on Friday, the market mentality was weak, the sporadic offer was around 7900 yuan / ton, the bid price was around 7700 yuan / ton, the negotiated price was 7800 -7900 yuan / ton. There is no transaction in the morning. The price of the PTA market in the US dollar plate is stable, the PTA US dollar cargo offer is executed at 1040-1060 USD/ton, and the PTA day tour supplier's offer is executed at 1060-1180 USD/ton. , No transactions have been heard.
Short-term or sustained shock operation
From a fundamental point of view, Zhongyu Information Market analyst An Guang said that from a macro perspective, the State Council improved the mechanism of promoting consumption and further stimulated the consumption potential of the residents. In the later period, it will actively stimulate domestic demand and offset the external disturbances to a certain extent. The negative impact of the market, the market mentality. From a fundamental point of view, the downstream polyester factory continues to cut prices, the recent increase in polyester inventories, polyester factories to increase prices, reduce production, but the market is aggravated, the polyester production and sales in September Continued downturn. The polyester started to fall, the demand for rigid PTA decreased, and the PTA market price was suppressed.
CITIC Futures analysts said that at present, the PTA market still has short-selling pressure: First, the expansion of polyester production has expanded, polyester production has declined, polyester stocks have rebounded rapidly, and demand side performance has been empty; second, PX price After several consecutive trading days, the cost support strength has weakened. However, the tight supply and demand pattern of PTA-polyester has been loosened, but it has not been completely weakened. In addition, Zhuhai BP and Yangzi Petrochemical have recently entered the parking lot to start the PTA. This week, the 1.5 million tons of Tongkun Jiaxing plant will be repaired as scheduled, and the PTA will start to fall further. The decrease in supply can offset the short-term drag caused by the reduction of some polyesters. Overall, the recent decline in PTA prices is intertwined by long and short factors. Next, the trend returns to the fundamental needs, the basic balance of supply and demand in the later period is still the trend.
For the market outlook, Xinyi Futures Analyst Wu Di said that on the macro level, the RMB depreciation is conducive to the export of PTA and downstream products, but the external disturbance event will affect the downstream demand of PTA, which will be negative for the PTA trend. In terms of fundamentals, although the downstream resistance is still The production is reduced, but considering that there are still more PTA installations in late September and October, and the current spot price is falling, the PTA export window has signs of opening. It is expected that PTA social inventories will be difficult to accumulate in October, or remain in progress. Low level. In terms of technology, the 1901 contract fell below the 5-day moving average of 7,223 yuan / ton, the upper pressure is near the 20-day moving average of 7,585 yuan / ton, the lower support is at the 60-day moving average of 6,778 yuan / ton, the PTA futures price is expected to remain short-term Oscillation operation, the operating range is 7000-7700 yuan / ton.
CITIC Futures analysts said that since September, due to the continued resistance of the downstream industry, the PTA futures 1901 contract continued to pull back under the pressure of large discounts. Although the current pressure is still large, considering the industry chain spread structure continues Repair, and in the early callback process continue to fulfill expectations, so the probability of a downturn will gradually slow down.