Before the holiday, the polypropylene market got its wish. The market quickly rose in mid-September after short-term indulging. The spot premium futures were 150 yuan/ton, which formed strong support for futures. The futures were repeatedly suppressed by the methanol futures, falling from the previous high of 10,301 yuan to 9614. After the Yuan, it bottomed out and became more powerful. At present, the spot market supply is tight, and the demand for replenishment before the downstream festival is pushed up continuously.
From the perspective of market supply, Zhongtian Hechuang, Ningbo Fuji Refrigeration, Shenhua Baotou and other devices temporarily stopped, and the construction started to decline. In the latter half of the year, Shenhua Ning coal-to-coal oil production, Shenhua Baotou and other devices resumed production, and the supply was tight. Can be alleviated, the supply is expected to pick up.
From the perspective of demand, the consumption of raw materials in the peak season before the two quarters supports the demand for raw materials, and the downstream start-up has been followed up. The petrochemical stocks are digested faster, and the probability of stronger prices in the later period is higher. The environmental protection is constantly coming, and the downstream is in the peak season, but compared with previous years. The start of construction has declined, and the stocking of stocks before the holiday has been released, effectively supporting the rebound of the disk, and the price is still high in the future.
Judging from the hype mentality, the recent lack of obvious news in the market boosted the spot, and the spot actively promoted the futures. The typhoon 'Hawthorn' has a greater impact in South China. The market is speculating. The drawing price in South China has rapidly entered more than 10,000 yuan. Propylene is a direct PP. Production of raw materials, from the current situation, the price of Shandong area rose to 9,450 yuan / ton, the cost support is strong, the spot is still speculation.
From the perspective of inventory, PP just needs to be improved obviously, and cost support is strong, and petrochemical inventory consumption is accelerating. Before the holiday, petrochemical still has the initiative to destocking intentions, the downstream demand situation is getting better, there will be concentrated replenishment, upstream enterprises and trade circulation The links have been reduced to a certain extent, the cost of goods has been rising, and the downstream has increased the intensity of stocking. The current inventory situation is relatively optimistic.
Future operation suggestion, PP and LLDPE are two chemical products with strong correlation. The spot price has formed a prominent leading role for futures, and the price return trend is also more obvious. Short-term PP futures are strong enough to have no friends. Under the current funds, Futures are also expected to rebound. The futures spread between PP and LLDPE is constantly expanding, but the resources before the PP section are tight relative to LLDPE, and the price is easy to rise and fall. Although the operating space profit across the varieties is ok, but the current plastic is difficult. Form an effective trend, it is not recommended to blindly follow the rise and fall.