While actively inviting China to continue consultations, it continued to increase the tariff threat. On the Sino-US economic and trade issues, the Trump government released different signals again, and the sentiment of market investors was also affected by ups and downs.
On the evening of Monday, East Trump, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on China's 200 billion US dollars of products. The market worried about the prospects of Sino-US trade issues, investors' risk aversion has heated up rapidly, and the three major US stock indexes have fallen collectively, technology stocks, China stocks have fallen, dragging the Nasdaq index down 1.4%, the biggest single-day decline since July 27.
On September 18, the Hong Kong stock market was dragged down. The Hang Seng Index opened 86 points lower. The intraday decline expanded and fell below 26,700 points. Tencent fell more than 2% in intraday trading. In the foreign exchange market, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was adjusted to 45 basis points. Reported at 6.8554, the second consecutive day of downward adjustment.
The Trump administration’s frequent “switching” on trade issues has not only made it difficult for the outside world to judge its true demands on Sino-US economic and trade issues, but also increased the uncertainty of investment and trade environment between Chinese and American companies, and also allowed financial market investment. The mood of the person is fluctuating.
As of Tuesday night, Beijing time, with the US 200 billion tariffs and China's $60 billion tariff counter-boots landing, the US stock market ushered in a slightly higher opening, and technology stocks also rebounded slightly. Among them, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. 0.11%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.12%.
US technology stocks were 'drinked'
The Trump administration issued a statement after the US stock market on Monday. Trump insisted on wielding a $200 billion tariff bar, which made market investors risk-averse. The technology stocks that had performed well in the previous period suffered a 'beverage.' US stocks opened on Monday. In the same day, the technology stocks fell collectively, Amazon fell 3.16%, Apple fell 2.66%, Naifei fell 3.9%, Twitter fell more than 4%, Google's parent company Alphabet, Facebook fell Over 1%, semiconductor stocks micro core technology fell 3.25%, Qualcomm fell 2.46%, Micron Technology fell 1.63%.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the trade war will also affect American companies, including the impact of large US technology companies. US stocks also fell sharply, especially for technology stocks.
At the same time, last week in the US stock market to grab the limelight in the stock market, the fun head and the fight more collective "face". Wei Lai car closed down 14.14%; interesting heads opened higher and lower, closing below the $ 10 mark More than a few intraday volatility, the biggest decline of more than 8%. The "star stocks" in the stocks are not immune, Jingdong fell 5.09% on Monday, Alibaba fell 3.55%, Aiqiyi fell 6.02%, Baidu fell 1.08%.
However, Bai Haifeng, director of the International Business Department of China Merchants Fund, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the collective diving of the Chinese stocks is also related to the recent strong performance. Last week, more than 60% of the stocks closed up, Weilai Automobile, interesting Headlines and other new stocks rose.
Bai Haifeng said that the recent listing of Weilai Automobile and the fun headlines fluctuated with signs of speculation. The target itself fluctuated very much. As for the market outlook, he believes that 'the United States will continue to voice before the mid-term elections, thus exacerbating market volatility.'
US stock feast or near end
The S&P 500 has not fallen more than 1% since June 25, and has not seen more than 1% since June 1. However, from the perspective of capital data, investors’ confidence in the stock market seems to have According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, although US stocks closed up last week, investors are clearly more risk-averse, with about $5.6 billion in funds being withdrawn from the stock market.
In a report to the 21st Century Business Herald, Goldman Sachs said that Goldman Sachs economists have recently measured the potential impact of tariffs more broadly through models. In the short term, given the risk of further escalation of trade disputes, the impact of tariffs is mainly This is reflected in increasing the uncertainty of the business and trade environment, as well as the damage affecting consumer confidence. For example, it may lead to the company delaying investment in production capacity, directly or indirectly affecting consumer spending through the stock market wealth effect.
However, for the US stock market that has entered the tenth year, after the record of the longest bull market since World War II last month, more and more sings from Wall Street have been received. Phil Orlando, chief stock market strategist, Federated Investors (Phil Orlando) pointed out in a report that trade disputes are only one of the few unfavorable factors facing the US stock market. Other factors include the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy and the possibility that the Democratic Party may regain the political changes in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, but He also believes that strong US economic growth may continue to support the market, freeing the stock market from long-term decline.
At present, the market generally expects the Fed to announce the third rate hike in the next week, which may further suppress the US stock bull market.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had previously said at the annual meeting of the Jackson Hole Central Bank that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until new economic data indicates that interest rate hikes should stop, accelerate or reverse.
'The Fed may raise interest rates in the near future, and the funds still prefer US assets'. Yang Delong pointed out to reporters that for the United States, it is not yet time for funds to be abandoned. Moreover, emerging market currencies and stock markets have recently appeared. Relatively large adjustments, the funds are still biased towards US assets. However, Yang Delong believes that the US stock market feast should be said to be 'almost'.
After the US stock market has risen sharply, the valuation has already been at a historical high, and the market has a high risk of high shocks. But when it can start to fall, it is still difficult to predict. Because after the bubble is generated, it can actually be blown. It is even bigger. 'Yang Delong believes that the overall profit growth of listed companies in the United States is still relatively strong, so it is still difficult to predict whether the bull market of US stocks will end, but the longer the risk is, the bigger it will be.