With the increasing demand for ethylene derivatives such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol, domestic ethylene demand has increased steadily in recent years. In 2017, China's ethylene equivalent consumption was about 39 million tons, and the equivalent gap was over 20 million tons. 2017, China Imported ethylene 2.16 million tons, an increase of 30%.
However, this year, the commissioning of some new installations will increase the supply of ethylene. Among them, the 1.2 million tons/year ethylene plant of CSPC II has been put into operation, which will greatly improve the supply shortage in South China. 10,000 tons / year, Jilin Cornell 300,000 tons / year ethylene plant plans to put into production, the annual new capacity is expected to be about 2 million tons.
Beginning in 2019, China will usher in an outbreak of new ethylene plants. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, domestic plans have released more than 14 million tons of ethylene per year, including 9 million tons per year. , coal (methanol) route of about 5.5 million tons / year. Although there are still 7 million tons / year of light hydrocarbon (ethane) cracking project affected by the Sino-US trade war, the possibility of short-term shelving is relatively large, but if 1400 More than 10,000 tons / year of equipment can be put into production as scheduled, when the domestic ethylene supply shortage situation will be greatly improved.
It is worth noting that in recent years, due to high crude oil prices and weakened demand for refined oil products, the coal (methanol) olefins industry has developed rapidly. At present, the domestic coal (methanol) ethylene production capacity accounts for 20% of the total production capacity. The ethylene industry has emerged a distinctive path that is different from its international counterparts.
With the further opening of the domestic crude oil import policy and the maturity of coal chemical technology, more private enterprises will enter the ethylene industry, and the overall supply pattern will begin to change positively – large-scale refining and chemical integration projects will be brought about by large-scale and diversified raw materials. Cost and technology impact, while the coal (methanol) olefins project also shows greater cost and raw material advantages at higher crude oil prices.
The Chinese model of walking on two legs brings new development opportunities to the ethylene industry.