Entering 'Golden Nine', the TDI market did not rise as expected in the industry, but continued to fall. In the first week of September, the price of the East China market fell by 500 yuan (ton price, the same below), running to around 29,800 yuan. .
The industry believes that due to the impact of foreign low-priced products on the market, coupled with the slow start of demand, the TDI market 'Golden Nine' is not enough.
According to Li Hong, Marketing Manager of Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd., the domestic TDI market improved in August. Especially in early August, the domestic TDI ex-factory price generally rose to 32,500 yuan. This provides an opportunity for imported goods to enter China. The market caused an impact.
Specifically, the low-priced Indian sources will enter the domestic market at the end of the month; Dow's supply is also expected to enter at the end of September, which will form a real pressure on the domestic TDI market. Therefore, traders have recently accelerated shipments to avoid risks.
Before mid-September, the number of Korean Hanwha and OIC imported goods was about 4,000 tons. Although the number is small, the impact on the market continues. At present, the spot market import price is about 29300~29500 yuan, and traders still have room for operation. This means that the TDI market still has room for downward adjustment. 'Li Hong said.
The slow start of demand is also an important factor restricting the market of TDI.
TDI is mainly used in the production of flexible polyurethane foams and polyurethane elastomers, coatings and adhesives, which are closely related to the automotive industry. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales in July totaled 2.043 million and 1.889 million vehicles respectively. , the chain fell by 10.8% and 16.9% respectively; the year-on-year decline was 0.7% and 4% respectively. This year, except for the Spring Festival, the only month of decline.
'The era of high demand for automotive has passed, so the demand for soft foam polyurethane and elastomer is difficult to increase. This is an important reason for the downturn in the TDI market.' Mr. Chen, general manager of a trading company in Shandong, said.
Not only the automobile industry, but also the paint industry has been in a downturn recently. This year, the coatings industry is facing more stringent environmental inspections. The low-level job has become a portrayal of many small businesses, and the purchase of raw materials TDI is difficult to increase.
'Although the current price of TDI has declined, it is still relatively high for the downstream factories operating in the downturn. Although the 'Jinjiu' is coming, the demand may pick up, but the demand is not optimistic. The downstream manufacturers insist on following the procurement of raw materials. With the mining, the transaction is mostly based on the small orders. In particular, the recent low-priced disk continues to appear, the procurement is more cautious, the transaction is difficult to increase, forcing traders to continue to let the shipments. 'Li Hong said.
However, traders also agree that the TDI market is unlikely to fall.
First, as the price declines, it is close to the cost of getting goods from traders, and the market continues to reduce the space. Second, the raw material toluene market is generally closed up, and the support for TDI is formed on the cost side. Third, under the downturn, Gansu Yinguang, 2. Yantai Juli, Southeast Electrification, and Zhangzhou Dahua have recently overhauled or restricted production plans.
In summary, the glory of the 40,000-yuan mark on the TDI 'Jinjiu' station in the past has been difficult to reproduce this year. The downstream demand is sluggish, the resistance to high-priced raw materials, and the import of low-priced products continue to impact the market, putting pressure on the TDI market. Go ahead. However, the cost side support combined with the reduction of the price of the inner and outer plates, TDI cut space is not large.