Ethylene is the basic raw material of the petrochemical industry. Ethylene production has become a symbol to measure the development level of a country's petrochemical industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the domestic ethylene industry has developed rapidly and has become the world's second only after the United States. The two largest ethylene producers and consumers. Globally, naphtha is also the main raw material for the production of ethylene. The Middle East and North America are mainly light hydrocarbon (ethane) raw materials, and China's resource-restricted raw materials are still naphtha. With the rise of the domestic coal chemical industry in recent years, the proportion of domestic coal (methanol) ethylene production capacity to total production capacity has reached about 20%. The domestic ethylene industry has developed a distinctive road different from international counterparts. .
Globally, the production of ethylene capacity has obvious cyclicality. It is generally divided into raw material-driven and demand-driven. For example, the ethylene plant put into operation in the Middle East from 2007 to 2010 is mainly benefited from low-cost ethane raw materials. There has been a shortage of ethane in the region, and new installations are mostly based on naphtha or mixed cracking. North America has brought a lot of cheap ethane since the shale gas revolution in 2011, and there are many ethylene crackers in the region. Changed to ethane raw materials, and a large number of new ethane cracking units were built. The total production time was concentrated between 2017 and 2020. The newly added ethylene production capacity in China was mainly driven by demand. Due to high crude oil prices and weakened demand for refined oil during 2011~2017 For other reasons, the new capacity is based on coal (methanol) to olefins.
According to statistics, as of the end of 2017, the total domestic ethylene production capacity reached 24.3 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year; the output reached 18.2 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year. The annual ethylene import volume reached 2.16 million tons, an increase over the same period of last year. 30%. As the demand for ethylene derivatives such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol continues to grow, the domestic demand for ethylene has steadily increased. The apparent consumption of ethylene in 2017 was about 20.37 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year; The equivalent consumption is about 39 million tons, and the equivalent gap is more than 20 million tons. The phenomenon that ethylene and its derivatives are heavily dependent on imports is more serious.
The commissioning of some new installations will have a positive effect on the supply of ethylene this year. The 1.2 million tons ethylene plant of CSCL II has been put into operation, and its commissioning will greatly improve the supply gap in South China. The 450,000 tons of energy and the 300,000 tons of ethylene plants of Jilin Cornell are scheduled to be put into production. The annual new capacity is expected to be around 2 million tons. Starting in 2019, the country will usher in the outbreak of new ethylene plants. Incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, more than 14 million tons of ethylene capacity will be put into production in China, including about 9 million tons of oil routes and 5.5 million tons of coal (methanol) routes. In addition, there are still about 7 million tons. The light hydrocarbon (ethane) cracking project is likely to be put on hold for a short period of time due to the Sino-US trade war. If the above-mentioned 14 million tons of equipment can be put into production as scheduled, the shortage of domestic ethylene supply will be greatly increased. improve.
After several years of development, the domestic ethylene consumption structure has also undergone some changes. Among them, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounts for about 27% of total consumption, high density polyethylene (HDPE) accounts for about 26%, low density poly Ethylene (LDPE) accounts for about 11%, ethylene glycol accounts for about 11%, ethylene oxide accounts for about 9%, and styrene accounts for about 8%. Among them, ethylene glycol, HDPE and LDPE have the lowest self-sufficiency rate of 34%. 49% and 53%, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.
On the whole, with the further opening of the domestic crude oil import policy and the maturity of coal chemical technology, more private enterprises began to enter the ethylene industry, and the overall supply pattern of ethylene began to change positively. The large-scale refining and chemical integration project was scaled up. And the diversification of raw materials brings cost and technical impact, while the coal (methanol) olefins project also shows better cost and raw material advantages under higher crude oil prices. The two-legged Chinese model will bring the ethylene industry New development opportunities, the spring of the ethylene industry is not far off.