Recently, the PVC market, which has just emerged from a round of gains, has slightly declined. On September 4, the market reference price was 6,995 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.18% from September 1.
In the medium and long term, the raw material calcium carbide market is rising, and the cost support is strong. The downstream also enters the peak season of demand. It is expected that the PVC market will be stronger. 'Liaoqiang PVC distributor Lu Qiang and other industry insiders believe that.
The price of calcium carbide is rising, which is the main driving force for the rise of the PVC market.
According to Lu Qiang, the PVC market rose by 2.45% in August, mainly due to the stricter environmental protection supervision in the main producing areas of calcium carbide, the lack of market supply and the sharp increase in prices. In August, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest increased by 50~100 yuan. .
'The market outlook, environmental protection supervision will become more and more strict, the shortage of calcium carbide is intensifying. ' Lu Qiang said that in late September, the 60th anniversary of the establishment of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region will be held, or affect the supply of calcium carbide. From 2017 data See, Ningxia's annual production capacity of calcium carbide is 4.93 million tons, accounting for 10% to 13% of the country's total production capacity. The main supply areas are South China, Shaanxi and Shanxi, etc. With the celebrations, calcium carbide transportation will be regulated. A safety production inspection will be initiated, which will have an impact on the production of calcium carbide, which will reduce the market supply.
In addition, due to frequent power-limiting measures in the Wumeng area of Inner Mongolia, the operating rate of local calcium carbide enterprises will remain low, and it is expected to further push up the price of calcium carbide and form a strong support for PVC.
The downstream demand for PVC is also good.
According to Tian Feng analysis of PVC data analyst of Fushun Petrochemical, on the one hand, the operating rate of downstream plastic products enterprises has rebounded, increasing the demand for PVC.
Since August, the demand for plastic products terminals has slowly recovered, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises in North China and South China have increased. Among them, the operating rate of plastic products enterprises in South China is 82%, a significant increase of 15% year-on-year; the plastic products enterprises in North China started. The rate is 73%, an increase of 5 percentage points. After entering September, with the arrival of the peak season, downstream demand has continued to rise expectations, forming a support for the PVC market.
On the other hand, PVC is mainly used for the production of pipes, profiles, profiles and other building materials, accounting for 60% to 70% of the total demand. The rebound in the real estate industry will also drive PVC demand.
Relevant data show that in July this year, the national real estate development prosperity index was 106.88, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in the first 7 months, the newly started housing area was 114,800 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the growth rate exceeded market expectations. Concerned that the housing completion area and sales area began to bottom out in April. The downstream demand for PVC and housing sales have a delay of about 3 months. Therefore, starting from August and September, real estate demand began to start. PVC consumption is gradually increasing and will continue to push the market upward.
In addition, the recent PVC business operating rate has decreased.
As of the end of last week, the domestic PVC industry operating rate was 82.67%, a decrease of 0.9% on a week-on-week basis. Moreover, at present, Tianjin Daxie, Shanxi Ruiheng, Formosa Plastics, Ningxia Yinglite and other PVC devices have maintenance plans or are in the state of overhaul. The industry operating rate is expected to decline further. This will lead to a decrease in market supply and aggravation of the PVC market.