The main raw material of PTA is PX, and the main raw material of PX is naphtha. Therefore, the price of crude oil and the supply and demand situation directly determine the production cost of PX and PTA. Historically, PTA price and crude oil price are also highly correlated. Sex.
International oil prices have bottomed out in 2016, and since then they have embarked on a turbulent climb. In the first half of this year, international oil prices continued to fluctuate upwards. The main factors include: OPEC’s agreement to extend production to the end of 2018 at the end of last year. Throughout the 2018, oil prices have set a keynote in the middle and high level. The Saudi Arabia-based production-reduction countries have exceeded their market expectations, and have repeatedly exceeded the output. This has intensified supply tensions and given strong support to the oil market. It is easy to rise and fall. The United States is changing from a crude oil importing country to an exporting country. The rise in oil prices is in line with its fundamental interests, and the US shale oil is temporarily unable to be exported in large quantities due to the transportation pipeline bottleneck. It will not impact the international oil market in the short term. , Syria, Russia imposed sanctions, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased sharply, bringing strong imagination and expectations to the rise in oil prices.
The data shows that in the first half of the year, under the superposition of multiple factors, the oil supply exceeded expectations, the international oil price fluctuated to a new high in four years, Brent crude oil closed at 79.12 US dollars per barrel, up 18.76%; US crude oil closed at the highest level per barrel US$74.29, up 23.61%.
Driven by rising oil prices, PX prices continue to rise. In particular, China, as a global PX importing country, is more subject to supply and bargaining power, resulting in a rapid increase in PTA production costs. In the first half of this year, domestic PX prices fluctuated upwards in May. In the first half of the year, it reached the high point in the first half of the year. After the adjustment, it continued to move upwards. The overall trend was consistent with the crude oil price. The PX price rose again in early July, mainly due to the price of naphtha. This year, the global supply and demand of condensate is tight, further promoted. The price of naphtha is stronger. At present, the price difference of naphtha cracking is close to 120 US dollars, which is at a historically high position.
In addition, the consequences of years of stagnation in the construction of domestic PX projects have already appeared. The current PX capacity is seriously insufficient. Last year, imports were more than 14 million tons, and import dependence was nearly 60%. The main importing countries were South Korea and Japan. The total imports of the two countries accounted for all PX in China. 62% of imports, it can be said that the core pricing power of China's PX is actually in the hands of South Korea and Japan. Since 2017, the high-load operation of downstream PTA has brought strong demand support to PX, plus global The faults and load instability of the PX device in the range add to the strength of the PX.
The reporter initially found out that Saudi Aramco's 1.34 million tons/year PX unit in Rabigh stopped parking in mid-July; Singapore Exxon Mobil Corporation, South Korea Hanwha, Japan JX Company announced the September maintenance plan, Vietnam PX Low-load production, accidental parking of domestic Sichuan Petrochemicals, and a significant decline in PX social inventories have led to a tightening of overall PX supply in Asia, and strong market optimism, which led to reluctant selling and bidding, driving PX out of crude oil. .
It is understood that the PX price in the Asian market rose again last week. The average weekly price of CFR China was US$1,272.43/ton, up 5.49% from the previous month. The average weekly price of FOB Korea was US$1,253.10/ton, up 5.55% from the previous month. Asian PX and naphtha prices The difference is a new high, and the profit level has increased significantly, but its cost transmission to PTA is self-evident.
In addition to the rising cost of oil prices, this year, especially since the second half of the year, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has brought about the impact of PTA's skyrocketing or cost, or cost expectations. In July, the RMB depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, crude oil and petrochemical raw materials. Import costs will inevitably rise. Some institutions have pointed out that only the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will raise the PTA price by more than 400 yuan per ton.
In addition, the Sino-US trade war is escalating step by step, and the information on the price increase of related products is also very clear. Some industry analysts pointed out that China and the United States impose tariffs on export products, regardless of whether the tax rate is 5% or 25%, and ultimately Insured by buyers and consumers, the intuitive performance is that the cost rises and the price rises. Moreover, the more foreign ownership is, the more important the trade rights, the stronger the expectation of price increases, and PX and PTA can be said to bear the brunt.