Under the background of global oil price volatility and China's 'forbidden waste' and 'environmental protection', the risk of fluctuation in the polyethylene market has further intensified, and the industry's profits are rapidly declining. From January to August this year, the industry's profit dropped by about 50%.
Increased risk of industry fluctuations
1, waste plastic reduction
According to statistics from Zhongyu, 15 batches of 18 batches issued by the CB contain the import approval for waste plastics, and the total amount of approved imports is 63,076 tons. Among them, the 8th batch approved the maximum import volume of 18,207 tons, followed by a single batch. The approved import volume did not exceed 5,000 tons, and the 18th approval approved the highest volume of 4193 tons in the past five months. Although the approved imports of waste plastics increased slightly, it still could not meet the demand for domestic recycled materials. In China's imports of waste plastics, it has been completely stopped. The other side of the prohibition of waste plastics will drive up the price of domestic polyethylene new materials, which will form a certain support for the polyethylene market.
2, crude oil shocks rose
At the same time that China's waste plastics basically stopped importing, international crude oil prices fluctuated and the US crude oil price rose from US$60/barrel at the beginning of the year to US$75.27/barrel. Domestic petrochemical enterprises are under pressure from rising costs.
Recently, the profit of oil-based polyethylene has fallen sharply. The average profit of the year has dropped by about 50% compared with the same period of last year. In September 2018, the domestic polyethylene maintenance equipment will be driven one after another. Daqing Petrochemical will drive from September 4th to September 28th. At present, the 300,000 tons/year full-density line has already started driving; Shenhua Xinjiang plans to resume supply in early September, Shenhua Ning coal plans to start on September 30, Shenhua Baotou 300,000 tons/year full-density device plan to stop for maintenance in early September for about 10 days. Maoming Petrochemical plans to overhaul, and Fujian's joint linear device plan is halved. Overall, the linear supply is limited in increments, while seasonal demand is expected to strengthen in September, and the National Day, Mid-Autumn Festival packaging demand and export of Christmas goods are expected. Demand boosted, polyethylene spot price support, in addition, into October, double eleven e-commerce promotional goods stocks, commodity express packaging demand is expected to increase, it is estimated that short-term polyethylene market terminal demand is expected to be good, market conditions Provide some help.
3, macro negative can not be ignored
Since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war this year, China and the United States have conducted two consultations, but ultimately no results, which led to an escalation of trade disputes and a certain pressure on the market mentality. The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that trade policy and trade disputes are important. Sources of economic risks, as long as the US economic growth is on track, the Fed will be prepared to raise interest rates again. There are many macro uncertainties in September. The current focus of the market is still on the Fed’s interest rate hike, trade frictions and geopolitical issues, so The negative from the macro side can not be ignored.