This year, especially since the second half of the year, the PTA has risen rapidly, causing the market management department and the entire industrial chain to shake. After Zhengshang’s August 5 issue of a market risk warning letter for PTA futures, less than one month, four consecutive bursts The gold medal, which greatly increased the trading margin of the PTA futures contract, the intention of macroeconomic regulation and control to cool the market is very obvious.
What is the logic behind the PTA surge? This newspaper has launched a series of 'PTA full-strength analysis' reports from today, from the perspective of supply and demand, cost, speculation, prospects, etc., to analyze the deep-seated reasons and future trends of this round of PTA price inflation. .
From June 20th, PTA futures 1809 contract price rose 5,562 yuan / ton to more than 9,200 yuan / ton, less than 60 trading days, PTA as the leading part of the bulk of industrial raw materials prices ride, the world is amazing. PTA Why did the price suddenly skyrocket? The China Chemical Industry News reporter investigated the supply and demand situation as the most important fundamental.
PTA futures were listed at the end of 2006. The two roller coaster prices in 2008 and 2011 were related to the rise and fall of crude oil. The market remained stable during the rest of the period. Since 2015, due to the serious overcapacity, the PTA market has fallen to the bottom, and the futures contract The price once dropped to the level of 4,000 yuan / ton, forcing nearly 15 million tons / year of production capacity to withdraw from the market. After the market spontaneous regulation, 2017 PTA effective production capacity of 39 million tons / year, the output of 35.74 million tons, the industry began to recover The overall operating rate rose to over 80%. From the demand point of view, the demand for PTA was 33.34 million tons, and supply and demand remained basically balanced.
At the end of 2017, Tongkun Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/ton new PTA plant was put into operation, which led to an increase in the domestic production base. In 2018, PTA production also increased compared with the same period of last year. The data shows that the national PTA production in the first half of the year was 19.04 million. Tonne, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. Due to centralized maintenance of domestic equipment, domestic imports of about 380,000 tons of PTA in the first half of the year, more than doubled year-on-year. Adding domestic and foreign, the total supply of domestic PTA in the first half of the year was about 19.42 million tons, overall fairly stable .
From the demand point of view, the rapid expansion of the downstream polyester industry and the introduction of new capacity have caused the market to rapidly increase demand for PTA. In simple calculations, the domestic PTA has a supply and demand gap of about 500,000 tons in the first half of the year. It is also in this context that the PTA market suddenly broke out after the intervention and promotion of speculative funds, as well as the rise in oil prices, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the Sino-US trade war.
Although the PTA industrial chain is long, the product is relatively simple. It is refined from crude oil. The upstream product is paraxylene (PX), and the downstream products are mainly polyester. In other fields, it is rarely used. In polyester products, poly Ester fiber accounts for about 75% of polyester consumption, bottle grade polyester accounts for about 18%, and the remaining 7% is used for polyester film and engineering plastics.
According to industry insiders, 0.855~0.865 tons of PTA is required for every ton of polyester products produced, which means that the demand of the polyester industry directly determines the consumption level of PTA. In the first half of this year, the total output of polyester in the country reached 22.08 million tons. The PTA consumption was 18.87 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons, an increase of 8.89%. The increase in demand was mainly due to the new capacity of polyester. In addition to other fields and consumption (about 600,000 tons) and exports (about 37 10,000 tons), so the total demand for PTA in the first half of the year reached 19.84 million tons, and the situation of long-term oversupply has reversed. Although the gap between supply and demand is not large, the effect of quantitative change to qualitative change has occurred in the market.
At Tongkun Group, the largest polyester filament production enterprise in Tongxiang, Zhejiang, the production lines in the factory are currently being produced at full capacity. The relevant person in charge of the company said that PTA is the most important raw material for producing polyester filaments. Usually, the company will store 15 days of raw material inventory, but with the hot sale of polyester filament, the current PTA inventory in the company's warehouse is at the lowest level in the same period of history, only to maintain 5 days of production, procurement of PTA raw materials has become a top priority.
The supply and demand of downstream enterprises are booming, providing a solid fundamental support for the PTA market. However, with the hot PTA, the ice of short-term tight balance between supply and demand is also melting, and the market situation is quietly changing towards a long-term loose direction. PTA Rich profits are attracting the capital of various capitals. Hengli Petrochemical is a leading PTA company in China. It has built 3 PTA production lines with an annual output of 6.6 million tons, and has become the world's largest PTA production base. Currently, the company applies the latest generation. The technology's 2.5 million tons/year fourth PTA production line has also been launched and will be produced by the end of 2019. In addition, another PTA giant Rongsheng Petrochemical recently revealed that the PTA project will be expanded to increase the market according to the specific situation. Occupation rate, is currently carrying out preliminary work.
In addition to the expansion plans of traditional industry giants, new cross-border gold diggers are also eager to try. The 6th China-Asia-Europe Expo held on August 30 will accelerate the promotion of the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt and key projects. At the signing ceremony, Li Lianglu, deputy general manager of Xinjiang Zhongtai (Group) Co., Ltd. revealed that the company's 1.2 million tons/year PTA project will be put into operation next year. At the signing ceremony, the company decided to invest 270 in Korla, Bavaria. More than 100 million yuan, the construction of 4 million tons / year kerosene co-refining integration project, will form an industrial chain with the PTA project.