Recently, the domestic PVC market has been in a state of yin. The market expectation is more pessimistic. From the actual industry, the inventory is relatively low, the cost continues to rise, and the PVC fundamentals are good for short-term, and the spot is falling for three consecutive days. Whether the transaction can continue to be heavy. There will not be a big surplus in supply and demand in the absence of a sharp deterioration in the macro, but the 1901 contract is facing the reality of the peak season and the expectation of the off-season. The short-term price is difficult to fall, and it is expected to rise first and then fall back.
PVC has fluctuated from the high point of the 7490 stage. After a sharp drop on Thursday, the contraction of the four trading days has been weak and the position has been slightly reduced. At present, the spot market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the price has been calm after hitting the 7000 mark. 60-day moving average and 6900 technical support concentration. Zhongyu Information believes that the late PVC or follow the mainstream of the market performance, short-term downside is not large, you can try technically do more operations.
In terms of raw materials, from the beginning of August, the price of calcium carbide has started to rise slightly. At present, the arrival price of Shandong calcium carbide is 3489 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase has reached 150 yuan/ton. This will lead to a rise in the cost per ton of PVC. Yuan/ton or so. However, the upstream profit is still high, and the reasons for the increase in calcium carbide prices are mainly three: First, the current PVC operating rate is high, and the demand for calcium carbide is large. Second, the limited power in the Wumeng region affects the start of the calcium carbide enterprise. There is a large enterprise calcium carbide furnace overhaul. At present, the calcium carbide industry generally believes that the price of calcium carbide will continue to rise.
In the southwest, the market in the northwest region is stable, and the futures are lower and higher, driving the spot trading atmosphere to be more active. The manufacturers' offers are limited, and some manufacturers are not quoting for the time being. The overall market turnover is still acceptable. The price of upstream calcium carbide has risen steadily. The current supply shortage situation has not changed, the manufacturers' inventory is generally low. The downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, but the demand is relatively stable. The traders' shipments are stable, and some of the low supply is slightly raised. Fundamental, currently PVC manufacturers have less inventory, society The inventory is lower than the same period of the previous year. At present, the upstream and upstream stocks are not under pressure. The PVC manufacturers are starting to work smoothly. The gold, nine, and silver ten are coming soon. In the later stage, there will be a phenomenon of centralized replenishment. The mainstream ex-factory price in the northwest region is near 6750-7000 yuan/ton, Southwest China. The mainstream ex-factory price reference 7150 yuan - 7300 yuan / ton.
Comprehensive pre-judgment, the current downstream relatively high prices, the trade link is sluggish. Zhongyu Information believes that the short-term market is more weak. East China 5 mainstream price 7000-7100 yuan / ton, South China 5 mainstream price at 7150-7250 yuan / Ton.