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It is estimated that the sales of excavators in August increased by nearly 40% year-on-year.
According to our latest communication with industrial people, it is estimated that the domestic sales of excavators increased by 30% in August, about 10,000 units, plus about 12,000 units of exports, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%, higher than previous market expectations. According to our 8 The grassroots survey in the middle of the month was affected by high temperature and rain in July. It was generally a low season for traditional construction. For example, the rain in Sichuan lasted for 20 days in July, which obviously affected the construction of the site. After August, the number of start-ups increased significantly. According to our communication with the OEM, the number of hours of startup of several major OEMs in August was upward year-on-year, indicating that sales exceeded expectations and the work started to be active. Therefore, we also maintained sales during the peak season in September-October. optimism.
The growth rate of infrastructure construction is expected to stabilize and rebound. The peak season in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.
At the end of July, the Politburo meeting decided to increase the intensity of infrastructure supplements. The National Council also proposed to speed up the issuance and use of 1.35 trillion local government bonds, and promoted a number of private investment in transportation, oil and gas, telecommunications and other fields. Mainly, projects with clear investment return mechanism and large commercial potential. The recent approval of infrastructure projects represented by transportation infrastructure has accelerated significantly. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the second half of the year is expected to stabilize and rebound. According to the communication with agents and OEMs, it is widely expected. From the second half of this year to the first half of next year, under the leadership of infrastructure projects, the construction machinery industry will maintain a high boom, and the peak season in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.
The tightening of environmental protection verification will speed up the release of new demand, and the national three countries may promote the early release of demand.
On July 3, the State Council issued the “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, pointing out the investigation of the non-road mobile machinery and the low-emission control area for non-road mobile machinery. The key area was completed before the end of 2019. Recently released Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019, the comprehensive action plan for comprehensive prevention of air pollution (draft for comments) requires cities to complete non-road mobile machinery surveys by the end of December 2018, and delineate and publish low-emission control areas. The low-emission control area prohibits the use of high-emission non-road mobile machinery such as black smoke. Tangshan City even prohibits the use of equipment below the national standard of discharge standards, and requires a monthly sampling rate of not less than 50%, and imposes penalties on violations according to law. With the implementation of the delineation of low-emission control zones across the country, the demand for equipment that meets emission standards will increase, and some equipment with excessive emissions will be phased out, which will speed up the release of demand. In addition, according to our understanding of the industry, The national four emission standards for non-road machinery and equipment are likely to be implemented from January 1, 2020, that is, sales will be banned from 2020. Three devices, the use of sold products is not affected. Since the national equipment will increase by 5% in terms of cost compared with the national equipment, there may be a situation in which the demand is released in advance, thus affecting sales in 2019. Therefore, we are next year. Excavator sales remain optimistic.
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