Since August 23, China has decided to levy 25% tariffs on US $16 billion of imported products from the United States to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and the multilateral trading system, including styrene. This is good for the domestic styrene market, but the price has not risen.
This week, the market price of styrene from a high of 12250 yuan (ton price, the same below) callback to 11800 yuan in the month.
Insiders believe that in the supply surface increase, demand downturn, such as bad influence, styrene market ' gold nine ' prices are worrying.
Increased self-sufficiency rate According to Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd. General manager Wang Chunming, China is the world's largest demand for styrene, the demand for 2017 accounted for about 34% of the global demand, apparent consumption of 9.7 million ~980 million tons.
The mismatch between production capacity and demand has created a supply gap for styrene. In 2017, the number of styrene imported from the United States accounted for 9.5% of the total demand. After tax, the United States of China Styrene Arbitrage window closed, will bring a certain degree of supply reduction. But with the development of the industry, the self-sufficiency rate of styrene is increasing gradually. In the first half of 2018, the monthly production of styrene was more innovative, up to 577,000 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate has reached 71.%. Although there is still a certain gap in terms of supply and demand, but downstream users of domestic sources of consumption and dependence is gradually upgrading, and even some of the factory contract dosage appears certain surplus.
' said Wang Chunming. Incomplete statistics, 2018-2022 years, China plans to have 7.112 million tons of styrene production capacity into commercial operations.
According to the existing research data, the styrene market is expected to achieve self-sufficiency around the end of 2019.
New capacity Release Into the August, the new production capacity of styrene released, but also to reduce the external dependence of the industry.
such as Anhui Hao source 260,000 tons/year styrene new device in mid-August to lift load to 80%, daily output reached 600 tons, products exported to East China, north China. Recently, the production rate of styrene plant has been gradually improved, and the overall operating rate of mainstream production enterprises is maintained at 86%~87% High. Daqing Petrochemical 225,000 tons/year device will be restarted in September, when the market supply continues to increase, the ' Gold Nine ' market will be under pressure operation.
"Jilin Bao Yuan Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. manager Zhang Xu said. Traders are not bullish on the market for styrene in September, as well as high port inventories. As of August 22, the total amount of styrene in the main reservoir area of East China (Jiangsu) has reached 80,000 tons. In addition, cargo from Saudi Arabia is awaiting unloading.
This weakens the growth momentum of the styrene market on the supply side. Again from the styrene industry profit situation look. According to Wang Chunming Introduction, July production enterprises profit space at about 2000 yuan. Into the August, corporate profits narrowed, but still at 1700 yuan up and down.
Because the profit is more abundant, the future price has a certain callback space.
Demand continues to shrink
The demand surface continues to atrophy the trend, is also the industry to the styrene market is not optimistic the important reason.
According to Zhang Xu, a few major downstream users of styrene in the near future loss, so downstream enterprises on the stock of styrene is significantly reduced intentions, and even the situation of anti-selling raw materials appear. As an important downstream of styrene, EPS market recently depressed. Low demand for downstream building plates, the electronic and electrical industry is in the traditional production off-season, the demand is not good, by the trade war, foreign trade business decreased, foam packaging demand reduced. Affected by this, EPS overall operating rate fell to 48% in late August, down 4% compared with mid-April.
Production enterprises in East China are down 10%, down to 33% per cent. PS and ABS demand is also not satisfactory.
In August, some large-scale household appliances enterprise row production reduction, small and medium-sized enterprises also appear cut or parking operations, resulting in production enterprises direct sales volume reduction, traders shipments are not smooth, the supply has accumulated in the field, some raw material inventory high. Another downstream unsaturated resin, although facing the traditional peak season, but the market lacks bullish prospects. ' East China Local area limited production, sewage discharge will be required to reduce negative or limited production; The North continues to expand the scope of environmental inspection, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding ' 2+26 ' city, Fen-Wei Plain 11 cities are included, in addition, 2018 China-Africa Cooperation Forum Summit will be held in Beijing in September. Combined with the above factors, resin and its terminal FRP, Quartz stone and other industries continue to encounter bad, the market is less likely to run to good.
' said Wang Chunming.