Since the cold year of 2016, the national 'high temperature barbecue' mode in the summer has brought good benefits to the entire air-conditioning industry. It seems to have washed away the industry volume three years ago, and the amount of double-dip. The National Information Center data shows that the 2016 cold year The domestic offline air-conditioning market sales and sales increased by 4.36% and 2.47% respectively. In 2017, the sales volume and sales of the air-conditioning industry in the domestic market increased by 28.5% and 30% respectively, setting a record high sales record; 2018 cold In the domestic market, the retail sales of air conditioners was 65.53 million units, an increase of 16.56% year-on-year. It still maintained a high growth trend. However, 'joy' and 'sorrow' often coexist. Behind the gratifying sales data of the air-conditioning industry, there is also a growing inventory. The heavy pressure of climbing, enterprises under the pressure to explore new sales models, in order to rationally digest inventory, while winning new market growth space and development momentum.
The 2018 cold year of the harvest
It is said that the air-conditioning industry relies on God to eat rice. Fortunately, his old man has a good mood in the past two years. The summer is hot and the sun is rising, the high temperature continues to rise, and the air-conditioning market is also following the joyful, the volume continues to climb. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics. It shows that from January to June 2018, the cumulative output of air conditioners reached 110 million units, an increase of 14.45% year-on-year. In addition to the production in August-December 2017, the total air-conditioning output in 2018 cold years was 172 million units, which was the peak of the 2017 cold year. On the basis of a new high.
According to the data of Aowei.com, the retail volume of the domestic air-conditioning market in the first half of 2018 was 33.22 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year; the retail sales of the air-conditioning market was 114.7 billion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year. Compared with the sales volume in the first half of 2017, In terms of the increase of 33.2% and 38.8%, the air-conditioning industry in the first half of this year is still showing a slowdown.
'Although the growth rate has slowed down, the whole curve has maintained an upward trend,' said Cai Ying, a senior industry expert at the National Information Center. He concluded that 'growth' is a very prominent feature of the domestic air-conditioning market in the 2018 cold year.
The 'growth' phenomenon has also brought about different changes in different levels of the market.
From the perspective of the primary and secondary markets, the brand concentration is further improved. According to the statistics of the National Information Center on the top three, the top five and the top ten brands in the domestic air-conditioning market, the real concentration is in the top three. The market share of the TOP3 brand increased by 6 percentage points from the 74.22% in the 2017 cold year to 80.44%, and the market share gap between the top three and the second group was gradually widening.
'Smart air conditioners also reflect this situation', Cai Ying said, the proportion of smart air conditioners in the first- and second-tier key markets accounted for more than 88% or even 93%. But at the same time, the high concentration of brand concentration in key cities may also There are two consequences: one will raise the threshold for other brands to enter key cities; the second is the Top3 brand with a gradual increase in control ability or the value adjustment strategy of one of the brands in the event of extreme weather, which may cause the overall market of the air-conditioning market. Volatility, will have a great impact on the market sales of small and medium-sized brands.
From the perspective of the third- and fourth-tier markets, the overall growth is good and the potential is huge. The data shows that the proportion of the third-tier market has increased from 11.75% in the 2017 cold year to 12.38%, and the proportion of the fourth-tier market has increased from 11.86% in the 2017 cold year to 14.22%. According to the data released by Jingdong Household Appliances, Jingdong Air Conditioning's sales growth in the first, second and third grade markets in the first half of the year was over 50%, while the sales growth in the fourth, fifth and sixth markets reached 87% respectively. , 77% and 300%.
'The third- and fourth-tier markets are an important basis for ensuring the overall scale of the domestic market in the future'. Cai Ying said that he believes that the third- and fourth-tier, especially the four-tier market, has made outstanding contributions to the growth of the overall air-conditioning market this year.
Stimulated by the air-conditioning market, in recent years, more small and medium-sized brands have entered the third- and fourth-tier markets that have not been fully exploited, and the quantity is still not high. 'The third and fourth grades include the growth of the rural market in the 2018 cold years for the survival of these brands. Active provides a good environment,' said Cai Ying.
'For air-conditioning companies, the 2018 cold year is indeed a bumper year. It has maintained growth this year at the peak of last year's history. This is a miracle in itself.” Wang Lei, vice chairman of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, air conditioner for 2018 cold years. The industry's growth trend has made a positive evaluation. She also believes that 'we should discuss more about the key factors supporting the rapid growth of the air-conditioning industry in the past few years; what are the factors affecting the air-conditioning market in the future; if there is any extreme weather, how should it occur? Respond to different market needs. 'Even, in the face of increasingly heavy inventory pressure, how should companies break.
Overcapacity, inventory pressure or a new round of brand elimination
Since the cold years of 2016, both industry and enterprises have emphasized: To be stable and reasonable to inventory, at the 2016-2017 China Air Conditioning Industry Summit Forum, there are enterprises and third-party data organizations that the air-conditioning industry is carrying more than 40 million huge stocks. .
Time goes to 2018-2019 China Air Conditioning Industry Summit Forum. After two years have passed, the problem has not been solved reasonably, but it has become more and more serious. The data of the National Information Center shows that the overall sales volume of air conditioners in the domestic market in 2018 is 8153. Wantai, of which the retail scale is 65.53 million units, and the engineering machine scale is about 16 million units. The inventory size of the cold year is expected to be around 48 million units.
48 million units, this data has not only decreased by 20% compared with two years ago. In this regard, Fang Wei, vice president of China Yangzi Group Zhangzhou Yangzi Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. is very worried, 'Impression, the peak of the cold year last year Forum, the inventory data recognized by all parties is 30 million units, and the total number of auctions has reached 48 million units this year. Will there be 58 million units by 2019? Will it be accumulated in one year in 2020?” He thinks this The possibility exists, and it also shows that there is an abnormal excess capacity in the air-conditioning industry. 'We can't say that it is caused by the reinforcement of many new brands. It is unfair to give hats to new brands. Leading brands are the main responsibility because they The cumulative production capacity is even larger. With the expected increase in air-conditioning personnel, if the market does not give force, the production capacity will continue to accumulate, which will bring unprecedented pressure to the air-conditioning industry.
'At present, the inventory pressure of the entire industry is indeed there', Yang Jie, chairman and general manager of Industry Online, said that according to the data monitored by the industry online, the output of household air conditioners in China in July 2018 was 14.15 million units, up 2.6% year-on-year; It was 13.7 million units, down 2.6% year-on-year; of which the internal sales volume was 9.88 million units, down 5.1% year-on-year. '5.1% decline is not particularly large, but it is the first decline since 2017 to 2018 continuous growth, it represents An inflection point or a signal. 'Yang Jie said that the air conditioning shipment data for the 2018 cold year has reached 97 million units, compared with 16 million units added last year. 'From our monitored companies 7, August scheduling data Look, they are already making positive adjustments, so there will be at least some adjustments from the industry's shipping end in the 2019 cold year.'
In the recent survey of the State Grid, the heads of relevant air-conditioning companies also talked about the inventory pressure. 'The current industry inventory has climbed to around 50 million sets.' This is the data disclosed by the head of a company, he said according to the average season Sales volume, 50 million sets of inventory need at least half a year to digest. And the overall level of industry inventory has been high, if the terminal sales in the peak season is not smooth, inventory may continue to climb.
Cai Ying said that under the double pressure of inventory and capacity release, if there is extreme weather phenomenon, then the 2019 cold year may have a new round of brand elimination caused by price war.
Improve anti-risk ability Can the new retail model eliminate inventory?
Lu Shenghua, editor-in-chief of China National Grid, believes that the air-conditioning industry has not yet reached the most glorious period, but there will be ups and downs in the long-term continuous rise process, such as the relative increase in inventory, the increase in corporate pressure, etc. Due to the different channel structure of each enterprise, product positioning is different. Therefore, in the face of pressure from the industry, the ability to resist risks is the most critical. 'Whether there is enough innovation capability and the channel structure is perfect, it needs the enterprise to perceive itself. The worse the weather, the bigger the market changes. Can see that the pit risk of those companies is strong. '
Zhu Lifang, director of the domestic marketing department of Oaks, highly agrees with this. She also believes that when the market is good and bad, it can best see the company's own operating capacity and channel model, and the channel structure's response to change. 'Many peers will think Oaks It is a single-line enterprise, but in fact, the number of channels we have offline this year has doubled from the retail window. This is the benefit of the new retail to Oaks. 'Zhu Lifang said that the new retail is ultimately from the factory products to The distance between users, Aux's network batch mode is through the entire value chain of the information flow capital flow logistics service flow, to achieve the level of efficiency, reduce costs, and pay attention to all consumer experience. 'For the enterprise, our scale The management has improved. For consumers, users in the rural market of the 5th and 6th grade markets can buy better products at lower prices. This is the quality evaluation. In the final analysis, whether new retailers bring benefits to manufacturers or Bringing benefits to consumers, and ultimately benefiting both parties can last forever.'
Midea's air-conditioner fully implements the 'T+3' model, which greatly improves the efficiency and response speed of channel resources, product circulation, internal management, market information, etc. Its relevant person in charge said that the US air-conditioning aspect is basically 'zero inventory', also There is no pressure on inventory.
TCL organically catalyzes the offline channels through innovative crowdfunding. The person in charge of air conditioning admits that this way can directly ignite the enthusiasm of the dealers, and achieve the listing is the amount. It is understood that TCL 'i涟' series cabinet air conditioners through innovation The crowdfunding method broke through 200,000 sets in a short period of time. The person in charge said that TCL air-conditioning is promoting the integration of two-line commercial terminals while exploring new retail, which is conducive to the synergy of different channels and the comprehensive service. .
Chen Yixian, deputy head of the e-commerce department of Guangdong Galanz Group Co., Ltd., also embraces the new retail. She believes that the new retail is an offline + online + warehouse integrated management, which can empower the products and is inevitable for the entire air-conditioning industry. The trend, 'only by developing new retail, companies have reasons to survive.'
'Channel integration may become one of the important work contents for production enterprises to maintain growth'. Cai Ying believes that e-commerce and specialty store channels have their own characteristics, and each channel with different characteristics is integrated to release the largest energy for enterprise sales. This is what companies should do most.
Ma Yun had predicted that the future e-commerce platform is about to disappear. The combination of online and offline and logistics will generate new retail. Online refers to the cloud platform, offline refers to the sales of stores or manufacturers, and new logistics will eliminate inventory. Reduce the amount of goods.
On the other hand, Fang Wei mentioned that the new retail of channels is a big challenge for enterprises, because enterprises need to do everything possible to mobilize all resources to adapt to the new retail model, so as to open up the barriers between online and offline channels. This point has to go through a long process. But at the same time, as Chen Yixian said, only when it develops, can enterprises have reasons to survive. Moreover, if they can help enterprises to lay a solid foundation, enhance the risk of pit risks, and solve the big problem of air-conditioning inventory. Let the company go more stable and farther, and let the industry continue to rise and less, and the 'long' process can also do a lot.