Foreword: The new energy vehicle market, one of the most important downstream of the lithium battery industry, is highly policy-driven. The large fluctuations of several indexes in 2017 are closely related to policy changes. The policy requirements for new energy vehicles and power batteries continue to increase. , where energy density is still one of the most important performance indicators.
Statistical analysis of global lithium battery production
Since 2011, due to the transformation of energy technology and emerging technologies, the global lithium-ion battery production has entered a period of rapid growth. From 2012 to 2015, the growth rate has exceeded 50%. In 2015, the global lithium battery production was 100.75GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39.45%. In 2017, the growth rate of the main application market of lithium-ion batteries slowed down, with a growth rate of only 16.85%, but benefited from the prosperity of the power battery driven by the new energy automobile industry. It is expected that the global lithium battery growth rate will be stable in 2018, and the output is expected to reach 155.82GWH. The market size will reach 231.326 billion yuan.
Global lithium battery production statistics and growth forecast for 2011-2018
Statistical Analysis of China's Lithium Battery Production
According to statistics, in June 2018, the output of lithium-ion batteries in China was 116.122 million, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year. From January to June 2018, the cumulative output of lithium-ion batteries nationwide reached 575.742 million, an increase of 10.7%.
China's lithium-ion battery production statistics and growth from January to June 2018
Power lithium battery shipments are growing rapidly
From the downstream analysis of the industry, lithium batteries are mainly concentrated in the three major industries of consumer lithium batteries (for digital products), power lithium batteries (new energy vehicles) and energy storage lithium batteries (for industrial energy storage). Although the consumption of lithium batteries is currently relatively large, the demand for downstream 3C electronics tends to be saturated, and the proportion has declined gradually in recent years. In summary, the future new capacity and new demand for the lithium battery industry will be concentrated in the field of power lithium. 2016 China's power battery production reached 29.39GWH, exceeding 3C battery production, becoming the largest consumer. In 2017, China's power battery production was 44.5GWh, a total of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and 20GW is expected to be 60GWh. The power battery will be China's lithium battery. The biggest drive engine for the next 3 years.
Statistics and Forecast of Power Lithium Battery Shipment in 2012-2018
Power battery drives the rapid growth of anode materials demand
It is predicted that the growth of consumer electronics demand will stabilize at a lower level in the future, and the installed capacity in the energy storage sector will be smaller, and the demand for power batteries will be the main driving force for the high growth rate of the lithium battery industry. It is expected that by 2020, the power lithium battery will be The demand will reach 109.2GWh, the total demand for lithium batteries will reach 151.6GWh, and the demand for anode materials will reach 8.9/133,000 tons. According to the average price of 60,000 yuan per ton, the market space for domestic anode materials will be 2020. Near 8 billion yuan. If the proportion of China's anode materials is about 30% of the export, the market space will reach 12 billion yuan.
Statistics and Forecast of Domestic Lithium Battery Installed Capacity from 2016 to 2020
2018 lithium battery industry outlook
The new energy vehicle market, one of the most important downstream of the lithium battery industry, is highly market-driven. The large fluctuations in several indexes in 2017 are closely related to policy changes. The policy requirements for new energy vehicles and power batteries continue to increase. Energy density is still one of the most important performance indicators. The subsidy policy implemented in 2016 did not require energy density; the 2017 subsidy policy stated that the passenger vehicle energy density is greater than 120 wh/kg and the commercial vehicle energy density is greater than 115 wh/kg. The model enjoys a subsidy adjustment factor of 1.1 times; the 2018 subsidy of the new policy will adjust the energy density of the excess subsidy factor to 140 wh/kg. Therefore, investors are advised to pay attention to the links directly related to the improvement of energy density, such as cathode materials. Soft pack battery and its materials.
