Halfway through 2018, a total of 16 batches of waste were imported in the first half of the year, 13 of which contained waste plastics, totaling 58,439 tons, while the recently announced 16th batch approval contained only 212 tons of waste plastics.
Compared with last year, a total of 11 batches of waste plastics were imported throughout 2017, with a total import of 7,050,562 tons.
In the next six months, whether or not waste plastics will continue to be imported is still unknown, but everything will be closed on December 31, 2018.
At the recent plastics industry conference, relevant people said: Domestic waste plastic imports have been basically eliminated, but the products imported under the new material model are increasing.
Waste plastic imports have become history
The import of waste plastics began in the 1990s. The main reason is the rapid development of domestic plastic consumption, and domestic plastic production cannot meet the demand of consumption, so imported waste plastics make up for this shortage.
In the history of more than 20 years of import of waste plastics, the highest import year was in 2012, importing 8.87 million tons of waste plastics, and the import of waste plastics showed a downward trend in the next few years. By 2017, the import volume was 7.05 million tons.
Whether domestic or foreign, the use of waste plastics is very extensive, PET is a very good raw material for chemical fiber, PE can be used in most packaging products, in addition to food packaging.
Therefore, after the domestic waste plastics import is basically completely stopped, there are still 40,000 tons of waste plastics processed in foreign countries imported into the country in the form of recycled granules every month. Because the price of waste plastics is relatively low, many domestic Plastic products all need low-cost things, so after the waste plastics imports stop, it has a great impact on the plastics market at home and abroad.
After the implementation of the ban, what changes have occurred in the global new material market?
Take polyolefin as an example, look at the changes in the global new material market from the perspective of capacity, demand and consumption.
Polyethylene
In 2017, the global polyethylene production capacity increased by more than 6 million tons, of which the linear increase was the most, reaching more than 3 million tons, and the global production capacity has reached 110 million tons.
In 2017, the global demand for polyethylene has reached 92 million tons, an increase of 3.8%, and the growth of demand has maintained a very good level.
In the consumption of polyethylene, film products are still the main driving force for future growth. Due to the slowdown in the construction industry, the growth rate of pipe has declined. The consumption of film is still the main driving factor for consumption growth.
Polypropylene
In 2017, global polypropylene production capacity increased by 3.69 million tons, which is the lowest growth rate in the past three years. In 2015, global polypropylene production capacity increased by more than 4 million tons in 2016. At present, the global polypropylene production capacity is close to 8000. Ten thousand tons.
Global polypropylene demand is 70 million tons, up 4% year-on-year. Like polypropylene and polyethylene, global demand growth has remained at a very good condition.
The consumption structure of drawing materials and films is increasing. Due to the slowdown in the growth of automobile production in Europe, especially in the United States, the global injection molding of polypropylene has declined.
China's polyolefin market changes after the ban
Polyethylene
In recent years, China's polyethylene production capacity has grown slowly. In 2017, China's new polyethylene production capacity was more than 1 million tons, the output was 16 million tons, the import was more than 12 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 28 million tons.
In 2017, demand for polyethylene increased by 11%, and the demand for 2.6 million tons increased. Therefore, the growth rate of domestic polyethylene production is far lower than the growth of domestic demand, and polyethylene still needs a large amount of imports.
This is why a large amount of polyethylene waste plastics have been imported domestically for many years, and the recycled particles of polyethylene still need to be imported in large quantities.
Polypropylene
In 2017, China's new polypropylene production capacity is about 800,000 tons. At the end of this year, the polypropylene production capacity is about 23.5 million tons. The output is 20.2 million tons per year, the import volume is 4.9 million tons, and the apparent consumption is 24.93 million tons. 10.4%.
From the analysis of the situation in 2017, the slowdown in the growth rate of polypropylene production capacity is the main reason for the current price of polyethylene and polypropylene.
Domestic polyolefin price outlook for the second half of the year
In recent years, the production capacity of polyethylene has continued to grow, and overcapacity has taken shape. It is scheduled to produce 19.85 million tons of polyethylene per year in 2018, with a production of 17.7 million tons, domestic imports of 13 million tons, and demand of 30 million tons. Supply and demand are basically balanced.
Packaging products are still the main application direction of polyethylene. In recent years, the demand for polyethylene for express packaging has been steadily increasing. This year, the new expressive materials will be piloted in the express delivery industry in Shanghai, which will make the use of traditional plastics in the express packaging industry more obvious. The impact of the price increase.
In recent years, polypropylene production capacity has continued to grow. It is estimated that the national polypropylene production capacity will be 26.78 million tons/year in 2018, and the output will be 22.3 million tons. The domestic polyethylene import volume will be 4.6 million tons, and the demand will be 26.8 million tons. Supply and demand remain tight. Balanced state.
In the later period, the import volume of polypropylene decreased, and the export volume increased. The import of recycled materials was substantially reduced. In the second half of the year, due to the economic slowdown and the increase in import arrivals, downstream factories and traders were also relatively cautious about the market, increasing the possibility of inventory. Smaller, the market is more likely to be loosely supplied throughout the year.
In the second half of the year, oil prices are expected to remain high. Upstream companies still have strong pricing power, squeezing profits of middle and lower reaches, downstream companies are also vying for bargaining power, and polypropylene prices are expected to rise.