The excitement brought about by the high growth of the air-conditioning market has extended from the 2017 cold year to the 2018 cold year. However, the hidden meaning behind this excitement is not the same. If the 2017 cold year is a real surprise, That 2018 cold year is more of a good fortune.
On the August 20th, 2018-2019 China Air Conditioning Industry Summit Forum, both industry research institutions and business representatives believe that the 2018 cold year air-conditioning market can achieve double-digit growth based on the historical high of 2017. For a miracle.
'This year, the temperature is very high, and the whole country is hot to the northeast, but the retail volume has not produced very high growth with the change of temperature. 'Zhu Lifang, director of the domestic marketing department of Oaks Home Appliances Group, said that in the cold year of 2016 and 2017 cold Under the continuous growth of the year, the air-conditioning market in the 2018 cold year itself is facing great pressure. As early as August 2017, the argument of 'singing bad' has already emerged.
Signal: The market cycle has reached
As early as during the pre-investigation period of the Air Conditioning Summit Forum, the State Grid has learned that many home appliance companies have set the tone for the 2018 cold year air conditioner market: based on the slowdown after the previous years, the 2018 cold year can achieve double digits. Growth, in the year of falling prices, is also a relatively prosperous year.
'The air-conditioning market generally has a three-year ups and downs cycle. From the 2016 cold year to the 2018 cold year, there has been a growth in three consecutive years. This is relatively rare compared to the previous cyclical fluctuations. 'A home appliance company executive analyzed the China National Grid. 4. The three consecutive years may mean that the air-conditioning market 'cold winter' is approaching.
According to the National Information Center data, the retail sales of air conditioners in the domestic market in the 2018 cold year was 65.53 million units, an increase of 16.56% year-on-year. From the past data, in the three-year ups and downs, there are generally no more than two years of positive growth. The wave of cycles has been growing positively for three consecutive years, so most of the air-conditioning industry has prepared for market adjustment from the macro cycle trend.
In addition to the macro cycle, sales in the peak season in July turned downwards, which is also considered to be a signal that the turning point of the air-conditioning market has arrived.
'In July, domestic shipments fell by 5%, although the decline was not particularly large, but this is the first decline since 2017 to 2018 continuous growth, representing an inflection point or a signal. 'Industry online chairman and general manager Yang Jie thinks.
According to industry online data, China's household air conditioner output in July this year was 14.15 million units, up 2.6% year-on-year; sales volume was 13.7 million units, down 2.6% year-on-year; of which, internal sales were 9.88 million units, down 5.1% year-on-year.
There is an adjustment signal in the market, and the output of air conditioners has reached a new high. The result of this production and sales is the rise of industry inventories.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the cumulative output of air conditioners in the first six months of 2018 reached 110 million units, an increase of 14.45% year-on-year. Together with the production in August-December last year, the total air-conditioning output in the 2018 cold years was 172 million units, which was cold in 2017. On the basis of the historical high, it has reached a new high.
According to the National Information Center data, the retail sales of air conditioners in the domestic market in 2018 is 65.53 million units, and the scale of engineering machines is about 16 million units. The overall sales volume of domestic air-conditioning market is 81.53 million units, and the inventory is expected to be around 48 million units.
Fang Wei, vice president of Yangzi Air Conditioning, believes that the current capacity of the air-conditioning industry is excessive, especially in the market adjustment period, which will bring some pressure to the entire industry.
'The inventory pressure of the whole industry does exist. From the monitoring data of July and August we monitor, the company has begun to actively carry out some adjustments. 'Yang Jie judged, the shipment of the entire air-conditioning industry in the 2019 cold year There will be some adjustments.
Opportunity: One multi-machine effect is still not fully released
Although the air-conditioning industry looks like 'the big limit is coming', there are still many opportunities under the macro market situation. For example, in many industry insiders, the 'ceiling' of the air-conditioning market is not within reach.
Lu Shenghua, editor-in-chief of China National Grid, believes that from the perspective of the relationship between household appliances consumption and population, the sales volume of 45 million refrigerators has almost reached the peak of the market, and air conditioner sales have not yet reached the most brilliant period. The overall market is still in a rising stage, the air-conditioning market Still the single largest volume in the home appliance industry.
In theory, the characteristics of a multi-unit air conditioner determine that its market size will reach two to three times that of ice and washing. At present, the size of the air-conditioning market is just close to twice the horizontal line, and there is considerable room for improvement.
Yang Jie said that compared with climatic conditions and Japan's sustainable economic development, the number of air-conditioned households in China is relatively low, and there is still much room for development in the future.
It is understood that in 2014, the number of air conditioners per 100 households in Japan has reached 248, and by 2017, the number of air conditioners per 100 households in China is only 96.1, and the number of air conditioners per 100 households in urban residents is 128.6. The rural residents have only 52.6 air conditioners per 100 households.
On the whole, compared with other developed countries, China's air-conditioning penetration rate still has a lot of room for growth. Compared with the 100-owned households of the country and urban residents, the potential value of the rural market has yet to be explored.
In fact, the 'base level' area did play the role of growth engine in the 2018 cold year.
According to Cai Ying, a senior industry expert at the National Information Center, the proportion of sales in the first- and second-tier cities is relatively shrinking. The third- and fourth-tier markets have become an important basis for the overall market scale. Among them, the third-tier market accounted for 11.75% of the last cold year. It has increased to 12.38%, and the proportion of the fourth-tier market has increased from 11.86% in the last cold year to 14.22%, contributing a lot to the overall market growth.
According to Tang Shuai, director of Jingdong Household Appliances Air Conditioning Operation, Jingdong Air Conditioning's sales growth in the first, second and third grade markets in the first half of the year was over 50%, while the sales growth in the fourth, fifth and sixth markets reached 87% respectively. , 77% and 300%.
In addition to the in-depth promotion of market penetration and the efforts of regional markets, representatives of air-conditioning companies have expressed that they will continue to seize the trend of online and offline channel integration, channel sinking, and product structure upgrade, and continuously improve the quality of operations.
At the same time, many phenomena have also brought a lot of thoughts to air-conditioning enterprises to find development opportunities. Air-conditioning enterprises believe that this kind of thinking mainly focuses on the following four points: First, the platform dimension, the counterfeit and shoddy products on the multi-platform platform And consumer rights is a kind of injury, manufacturers should take the lead, should use good products to establish a good image; market dimension, multi-platform counterfeit and shoddy products not only infringe the manufacturing company's trademarks, patents and other intellectual property rights, but also Disrupting the established price system, marketing system, sales system, manufacturing enterprises should establish awareness of rights protection; mode dimension, a business model of a lot of social integration is an integrated interpretation of channels and marketing, worthy of manufacturing enterprises to learn from; Dimensions, and more grasp the current situation of consumer grading, to meet the needs of specific consumer groups, manufacturing companies need to reflect, truly grasp the needs of different consumer groups, and provide effective product supply.
Yang Jie believes that the phenomenon of multi-pronged has made home appliance companies realize that understanding the consumer demand, channel layout integration, operational efficiency improvement, user experience improvement and other aspects still have a long way to go, there is a chance to create value.
Training: Product, service, model innovation constitutes 'three carriages'
The cold year of 2019 has arrived. Most air-conditioning companies have already held an opening meeting. It is better to train the 'inner power' during the adjustment period than the 'Mr. Market' who is not very controllable.
Wang Lei, vice chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that instead of predicting the future market trend, it is not as hard as possible to study consumer demand, through product innovation, to launch products that can solve consumer pain points, and at the same time through channel transformation, marketing innovation, through good Products, good service, seize the market opportunity at the beginning of the new cold year.
'One is the R&D capability suitable for the market and consumer demand, and the other is the service capability that can satisfy the consumers. ' Fang Fang believes that these two capabilities will be more and more valued by air-conditioning companies, especially during the hottest seasons. The installation service in place is even more commendable.
According to Fang Wei, air conditioners were installed in consumers in the northeast last month. Because of the high temperature weather, consumers directly asked for a thousand dollars to install air conditioners immediately. It can be seen that it is different from 'seven products three. The traditional saying of sub-installation, even in a special case, the ability to install services can even play a decisive role.
The importance of installation services need not be described, but due to factors such as seasonal cycle, labor costs and demographic structure, the crisis in air-conditioning installation services is looming.
According to Zhu Lifang, the current installer group is facing the danger of shortage of labor. Many 80s and 90s are reluctant to engage in this profession. Most of the installers are over 40 years old, and those under 40 years old only account for 20%-30%. Moreover, the safety issues of the installer and the issues such as salary and benefits are also worthy of attention.
For the shortage of installers, Galanz's experience is worth learning. Chen Yixian, deputy section chief of Galanz's e-commerce department, said that Galanz's six industrial lines have corresponding installations, maintenance workers, and the installation of various lines and maintenance workers are integrated to complement resources. , not only can prevent the danger of labor shortage, but also can guarantee, improve the comprehensive income of workers, can be described as killing two birds with one stone.
In addition, mainstream air-conditioning enterprises are gradually establishing and perfecting standardized and convenient installation and maintenance service processes, which not only can standardize operational service behaviors to ensure worker safety, but also implement registration at the user end, transparent maintenance procedures and charges, and air-conditioning enterprise service capabilities. Further improvement.
In addition to service capabilities, air-conditioning companies have achieved remarkable results in product innovation. In addition to the increasing penetration of smart, variable-frequency, and energy-efficient air conditioners, Midea’s 'cool feels no wind' air conditioner, Haier’s differentiated innovation in self-cleaning air conditioners has been The industry has formed a landmark selling point, which has made a great contribution to the upgrading of product structure while cutting the pain points. In addition, the air-conditioning, air-cleaning and fresh air functions will be combined around the air-sphere to improve the frequency of air-conditioning use. The upgrade and optimization of functional technology is also an important way for air-conditioning enterprises to enhance their product strength.
In fact, in addition to product capabilities and service capabilities, the innovation of air-conditioning companies in the channel and marketing model is also very worthy of attention. Midea air conditioners fully carry out the 'T+3' model, basically achieving 'zero inventory', new cold young pre-installation TCL air conditioners organically catalyze the offline channels through innovative crowdfunding methods, directly igniting the enthusiasm of the dealers to achieve the listing. The Aux Air Conditioning 'Network Approval Conference' is unprecedented, with the 'factory direct supply' profitable dealers, Relying on the Internet, using smart factories as the basis of intelligence, through the use of big data, artificial intelligence and other technical means, the product production, distribution and sales process is fully upgraded, online services, offline experience, product experience and modern logistics. Deep integration...
The innovations of products, services and business models continue to land, take root, and sprout. No matter whether the cyclical turning point of the air-conditioning market is coming, air-conditioning companies can calmly face and wait for the next summer.