The company released the 2018 mid-year report. During the reporting period, the net profit of the returning mother was 379 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 655.60%; the EPS was 0.86 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 682%. Among them, Q2 realized a net profit of 278 million yuan, an increase of 173% from the previous month. The performance hit a record high; the realization of EPS 0.63 yuan, an increase of 174%.
Brief comment
The price of PA66 sliced, industrial silk and cord fabric rose sharply, and the investment income of nylon chemical industry was bright. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of slicing was 71,000 tons, which was 13,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, and the sales volume of Q2 slice was 34,000 tons. See, the company's first half of the year did not include the tax slice price of 24,200 yuan / ton (average of the first quarter of 22,300 yuan / ton), an increase of 32%, Q2 average price of 26,200 yuan / ton, the average price of Q1 rose by 17%, subject to The impact of the downstream major price adjustment cycle still lags behind the market price increase; the average price of industrial yarn and cord fabric Q2 is 2.59, 33,100 yuan / ton, an increase of 14% and 23%. The core raw material nylon 66 salt average price of 1.26 in the first half of the year. 10,000 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, the price is basically the same, reflecting the company's industrial chain integration advantages, and the market price of hexamethylene diamine is as high as 80,000 yuan / ton. The company's 18-year H1 investment income was 197 million yuan, up 381% year-on-year. , subsidiary nylon chemical (adipate, hexamethylene diamine business, the company holds 49%) 18 years H1 performance of 372 million, an increase of 427.5% over the same period last year, contributing investment income of 182 million yuan.
Sino-US trade war and RMB depreciation favored the company's export business, pushing up the domestic PA66 price. As an export-oriented enterprise (17 years of export value of 1.7 billion yuan), Q2 RMB depreciated against the US dollar by 5.4%, benefiting from exchange gains, the company Q2 The financial expenses are only 109 million yuan, and the exchange loss of Q1 is basically reversed. The net import dependence of PA66 is 40%, the depreciation of RMB and the trade competition impose a 25% PA66 tariff on the United States (China imports 70,000 tons of PA66 from the United States). Both greatly increase the cost of imported materials, and benefit the domestic P66 product prices.
In the peak season of production and sales, the overseas force majeure is superimposed, and the cost side pushes the price of PA66 up. On the demand side, the current PA66 inventory is only one day, and the supply is seriously scarce. The growth rate of PA66 downstream modified plastic in the automotive field is above 10%, and the demand is strong. Overseas Aoshengde, INVISTA, BASF's diamine plant suffered force majeure, resulting in shortage of upstream raw materials. In the peak season in August, downstream enterprises just need to get goods, the contradiction between supply and demand continued to expand, pushing up the mainstream price of PA66 to 36,900 yuan / ton, the price Continuous innovation, the company's third-quarter performance is expected to hit a new high.
The company's slice expansion continues to be good, and the potential partner of INVISTA's domestic adiponitrile project. The company expanded its production capacity by 40,000 tons in June 18, and plans to add 7 in Hai'an (30,000 tons) and Shanghai (40,000 tons). 10,000 tons of capacity, Yexian's 40,000 tons of spinning capacity will greatly increase the company's performance. INVISTA Shanghai 300,000 tons of adiponitrile project is expected to start construction in 2020, put into production in 2023. As the domestic nylon industry chain with the most complete set Enterprises, companies are most likely to become their partners, help to open up the entire industry chain, and benefit future performance.
profit prediction:
The company's 2018, 2019 and 2020 net profit of the mother is 10.39, 12.46 and 1.488 billion, EPS 2.35, 2.82 and 3.36 yuan, PE7.7X, 6.4X and 5.4X, maintaining the 'Buy' rating.