Since August, the domestic aggregate MDI market has turned sharply. As of August 20, the warehouse price of Shanghai's supply of barreled goods in East China was about 17,600 yuan, down 2,700 yuan (ton price, the same below), a drop of nearly 13%. .
The industry analysts believe that the current contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, coupled with the impact of low-cost imports, the aggregate MDI market still has room to fall.
Import supply shock
Li Hong, manager of the marketing department of Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd., said that the main reason for the sharp drop in the price of aggregated MDI is the recent low-cost import of goods to the market. According to the cost analysis, the cost of importing Korean goods to shore is about 17,700 yuan. Therefore, market participants It is widely expected that in this round of decline, the support of Shanghai's supply is at 18,000 yuan, but the market has not stabilized at this price. Holders are generally facing shipping pressures, and even there is a phenomenon of stockpiling, which is not a bad thing for the market. watch for.
According to a company salesperson, traders are more optimistic about this year's market, picking up goods in advance to meet the peak season, but the reality is far worse than expected, low-priced sales put pressure on the market.
From the operation of the device, Wanhua Yantai 600,000 tons / year maintenance device has been restarted at the end of July; Tosoh Ryan 80,000 tons / year device on July 23 parking and maintenance for 1 month, will drive.
'The expectation of restarting the maintenance device will continue to be under pressure. Although the factory has a limited number of policies, the role is weakening and is gradually being suppressed. The short-term market reversal is unlikely.' Li Hong said.
Raw materials are difficult to change
From the perspective of raw materials, the domestic aniline market continued to be stable, and the factory price and market price did not change much.
'The raw material pure benzene center of gravity continued to explore, twice the price adjustment last week, a total increase of 250 yuan. Cost support is strong, once again compressed the profit margin of aniline. 'Li Hong said.
Judging from the start of the aniline production plant, Shandong Jinmao was overhauled on August 5, lasting about 15 days; Shanxi Tianji was parked for 1 day due to equipment failure.
Li Hong said that the current aniline factory inventory pressure is not large, but the spot is sufficient. The downstream factories are affected by environmental factors, the operating rate is not high, the demand for aniline is limited, the customer orders are not motivated, and the support for the aniline market is limited. In the later period, based on cost pressure, the domestic aniline market price is expected to increase or decrease, but due to the small magnitude, the pulling effect on the aggregate MDI market is very small.
Downstream demand is low
Polymeric MDI is mainly used in the production of polyurethane rigid foam, semi-rigid foam, etc., widely used in refrigerators, insulation materials, automotive and construction industries.
From the perspective of the automobile industry, according to the statistics of China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in July 2018 was 53.9%. According to the relevant principle, 50% is the glory line, and below 50% is the reasonable range; The higher the index, the lower the market demand and the greater the inventory pressure. In July, China's auto inventory exceeded the warning line, reflecting that the demand for raw materials in the automotive industry is still weak in the short term. Therefore, as an important raw material, MDI has not been in demand. It is reasonable to be able to increase the amount.
In addition, environmental protection inspections are still carried out nationwide. The operating rates of downstream spraying and pipeline insulation are generally low, and terminal demand is difficult to release, which cannot support the aggregate MDI market.
The overall situation of the refrigerator industry is not satisfactory. According to industry online statistics, the total sales volume of refrigerators in 2018 was 37.934 million units, down 2.7% year-on-year. Among them, the internal sales volume was 22.29 million units, down 3.7% year-on-year.
In summary, the demand for polymeric MDI terminals has not really started, coupled with the low price impact of imported goods, the attitude of the holders is unstable, the production plants are not strong enough, and the market is in the process of continuing to bottom out.