After the month of July, August has already reached the middle of the month, but the PTA has not disappeared. All the way to the song has entered a collective 'carnival'! The price continues to soar in the short time over 1,500 yuan / ton. Yesterday, PTA futures The contract broke through the key points again, standing at 7500 points.
Take the PTA spot main port of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. as an example, to show you the amazing increase in PTA spot.
The data shows that in the month before July 10, the quoted price of Hengli Petrochemical has been maintained at 6,000 yuan / ton. This balance was broken on July 11, the day, PTA offer 6100 yuan / ton, compared The price of the previous trading day rose by 100 yuan / ton. Since then, the spot price of PTA has climbed all the way. On August 13, Hengli Petrochemical announced that the PTA spot main port issuance price is 7600 yuan / ton, which is higher than the price on July 10. 1600 yuan / ton.
In the futures market, the PTA1809 contract ended its consolidation on July 19th, opening the 'all the way' mode. As of August 13th, the PTA1809 contract closed at 7408 yuan/ton, which continued to refresh for four years. The lowest from June 20th. Starting at 5,546 yuan / ton, as of August 13, the PTA1809 contract range has risen by as much as 33.14%, soaring more than 30%.
Indeed, at present, there are some abnormalities in the domestic chemical market. The prices of some varieties such as PTA and methanol have not recovered, and the impact on the market and the industrial chain has already appeared. Zhejiang, the warp knitting industry chambers in some areas of Jiangsu recently jointly issued a discontinuation proposal. The reason is that the recent price increase of textile materials such as polyester filaments is too far off the mark. It is reported that polyester filament POY is also quoted at 9950 yuan per ton on July 30, and reached 10,600 yuan on August 7, up by nearly 6.5% in one week. The upstream raw material of polyester filament yarn is precisely PTA, high-priced conduction, fire burning, and thus can be seen.
In the entire chemical market, the enthusiasm for PTA and methanol is not a case. What is more worrying is that in the situation of increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the depreciation of the renminbi, and the Sino-US trade war, there is a risk of overall fever in the chemical market in the second half of the year. High fever may be more radical, bring a chain reaction to the market structure and the industrial chain, and need to be vigilant and preventive.
First, the price control factors
Geo-risk reflects oil price fluctuations
'From oil to silk, from silk to clothing', according to this production process, the upstream crude oil fell, which should bring down the price of polyester filament. But the current observation is that PTA is rising all the way, and is not affected by the price fluctuation of Iranian oil.
In today's Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the Economic and Trade Association's Stop Production Boycott Proposal pointed out that it does not understand that PTA continues to grow wild, leading to the downstream of the industry chain, and even pointing the upstream oligarchs.
However, the actual situation of crude oil is weak and strong. From 0:00 on August 7, the first round of sanctions against Iran began to take effect again. According to the US, it is necessary to completely cut off the source of funds for Iran’s independent development of nuclear capabilities - oil exports. Iranian oil exports fell to zero at the end of November this year. Trump said this: Anyone who has business with Iran will not be able to do business with the United States.
The impact of Iranian crude oil is a double sword, exports will fall to zero, and the international crude oil market will reduce supply by about 2.5 million barrels per day. According to foreign authorities' predictions, even if a discount is reduced by 1.2 million barrels per day, the international crude oil market The balance will also be broken, oil prices will rise and rise.
At present, the West is in the midst of Syria, and the Middle East has become a 'gunpowder barrel.' If the late speculative capital comes in again, if the international oil price in the second half rises by 80 dollars or even 100 dollars per barrel, analysts have predicted that it is not too unexpected.
Under the oil dollar system, the rise and fall of oil prices largely depends on the strategic intentions of the United States. At present, the United States has achieved energy self-sufficiency and exported a large number of energy and chemical products. It has economically hit China, the EU, Japan and other competitors. In the political situation, the fish in troubled waters has achieved better control over the Middle East. The oil price has soared. The United States is happy to see it and directly benefit it. It will spare no effort.
However, the surge in oil prices will bring imported inflation to China and push up domestic prices. For the domestic petrochemical and chemical industries, it may bring about a great success in the entire industry chain.
Second, the currency depreciation pushes up the import price
The exchange rate is a manifestation of a country's purchasing power. In July, the rapid depreciation of the renminbi has exceeded the 10% depreciation in March. This is especially true for the petrochemical industry, which is highly dependent on imports. The devaluation of 10% means that import prices have risen. 10%, and China's oil, natural gas, methanol, olefins, PTA and other bulk raw materials need to be imported in large quantities, which is rigid and significant for the price transmission of the entire petroleum and chemical industry chain.
Taking PTA as an example, its price has risen sharply in the near future. There is logic behind it: First, oil prices have risen a lot this year. Second, domestic PTA and polyester industries have formed an oligopoly pattern with absolute pricing power; Recently, the RMB exchange rate has quickly gone. According to estimates, only RMB depreciation will raise the price per ton of PTA by more than 400 yuan. The PTA price of the whole international market is rising, the domestic market with insufficient self-sufficiency and high monopoly, PTA price岂Will it rise quickly and soar?
In addition, the United States gradually raises interest rates to halfway. According to financial and financial circles, the probability of the US raising interest rates again in September and December this year will bring strong support to the US dollar index, strong stimulus, and bring the RMB exchange rate. Depreciation pressure. The market is heating up whether the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will break during the year. 7. It can be said that in the second half of the year, the risk of market fever caused by currency depreciation is very large.
Third, trade friction raises the price system
Recently, discussions on Sino-US trade wars in various circles of the society have been very enthusiastic. Macroscopically, the trend of micro-viewing, the petrochemical industry must pay close attention to and study the possible impact of trade wars on the industry and the market, and therefore prepare the plan and strengthen prevention. .
What are the potential impacts of the Sino-US trade war on the domestic petrochemical industry and the market? Unfortunately, the price increase. International trade follows the principle of full competition, cost-effective optimality, and forms a basically fixed value in years of game and price. System and market structure. Trade warriors destroy this stable situation, and eliminate the 'optimal' by the mutual increase of tariffs, and choose 'secondary'. This is for traders, whether it is to maintain the channel to increase tax, or to find another way The result of the transfer of the (selling) home is that the price of the commodity rises, and it rises sharply, which basically corresponds to the tax increase of 25%. Thus, the price of the entire market, trade, and industrial chain will rise.
At present, the first batch of trade plus tax lists between China and the United States have been implemented, and the battlefield will be expanded in the later stage. Energy and chemical products will not be spared. The trade war must be the result of a double loss. For the chemical industry, whether it is Buying raw materials from the international market at a higher price, or exporting products to the international market at an erratic price means that the cost of the domestic industrial chain rises and prices rise.
Fourth, but the impact of RMB depreciation is greater than tax increase
Many people believe that Sino-US trade friction is an important reason for the rise in PTA prices, but some experts in oil central enterprises believe that there is no direct relationship between the two. The price increase of this PTA is mainly caused by changes in domestic supply and demand.
'Because the current US PX capacity is 4.555 million tons / year, the production capacity accounts for 8% of the world, but its PX is mainly domestically digested, a small part of exports, so it has no impact on China's chemical industry. ' Bian Weihui said.
Bian Weihui said that the US PX products are imported into China. Because the freight rate is relatively high and the arbitrage is relatively difficult, it has rarely been exported to China in the past. 'At present, the US US$1087/ton price is calculated, plus the cost of shipping to China is about 1187. USD/ton, the current CFR Taiwan price is 1128.67 US dollars / ton, the loss is about 59 US dollars / ton, so in addition to the production companies may have a meager profit, there is no arbitrage space for traders, which is the amount of exports to China is not large The main reason. '
As for the reason for the current rise in China's PX price, the oil central enterprise experts believe that the main factor is the depreciation of the RMB.
'The current PX rose to a 46-month high, mainly due to the depreciation of the RMB and the downstream PTA. As the domestic economic growth slows down, PX imports and production costs will rise sharply. Because market participants expect the RMB to continue to depreciate. So the bullish sentiment on PX is increasing. 'He thinks.
in conclusion
According to this, geography, exchange rate, trade war, such as the three reminders of price increases, some have been effective, and some still need a lag period. Some analysts expect that from September this year until the end of the year, the domestic petroleum and chemical industry The high probability of high fever in the market requires high vigilance and prevention. Petrochemical is related to people's livelihood and related industries. Once the overall high fever, it will bring a series of chain reactions, such as rising domestic inflation, sudden break of the industrial chain, etc. How to avoid the formation of fire The unfavorable situation of the company is that the whole industry and relevant management departments need to be strictly guarded.