Since August last year, polycarbonate officially blew the horn of the skyrocketing, the rate of increase is fast, the increase is huge, and it is dazzling. This website has also written several times to deeply analyze the 'superstar' and call it 'Golden gimmicks', although the limelight is no longer the case, but the feng shui turns, the undoubted increase in the market in the past, but nowadays it has repeatedly won the decline, but in just one year, the situation is very different, the decline is big It is embarrassing, in the face of the current downward trend, how should the business respond, Jin Jiuyin 10 can help the PC turn over, and listen to the author.
The key to leading the PC higher last year is simply the upstream and supply and demand. So is it that the PCs have been falling for the past few days? Is this exactly what they are doing? Not quite.
Bisphenol A: PC gradually drifts away in the down channel. Bisphenol A has no signs of stopping. As of now, the price of bisphenol A in East China is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, compared with the same period of last year (9500-9550 yuan/ton The growth rate was 58.1%, which was amazing. Not only that, according to the news of this website, Sinopec Mitsui Bisphenol A plant plans to stop maintenance in mid-August, Nantong Star Bisphenol A plant also has an overhaul plan in September, which indicates the next two months, double The supply side of phenol A will show a tightening trend. At the same time, the demand side is also quite optimistic. In 2018, the domestic PC new capacity will reach 170,000 tons/year, including Wanhua Chemical Phase I and Shandong Lihuayi PC Plant. It has been successfully put into operation, and Luxi Chemical II plans to officially put into operation in the third quarter. In the situation of short supply, bisphenol A may continue to be high in the later period. In summary, due to the wide spread between bisphenol A and PC, the two The correlation between the two is reduced, so the price trend of bisphenol A is not a direct factor for PCs to go down.
Supply and demand surface: Compared with the mild supply and demand situation of bisphenol A, the supply and demand situation of PC can only be described by 'tit-forward'. On the supply side, in addition to Wanhua Chemical and Shandong Lihuayi, the Sinopec Mitsubishi also repaired the previous period. It has been driven at the end of June. The supply of goods in the market has increased compared with previous years, but the impact on the market is limited. On the demand side, the excessive cautiousness of end users is the crux of the current market weakness. What do you say? The price of PCs in the early period has risen sharply. Downstream enterprises are in conflict with high-priced goods, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not good. The actual transaction follow-up is slow. The PC prices are gradually falling in the late period, while the downstream enterprises are being tempted by the 'buy up and not buy' attitude, the willingness to accept the goods is weak, and the transaction is small. In summary, the complex emotion of 'not buying up or not buying' is a key reason for the deepening of the contradiction between supply and demand, and it is also the culprit of the PC's decline.
Macro situation: The Sino-US trade war has been out of control since its official launch in March, and there is a growing trend. As far as PC is concerned, the United States will increase its tariff increase and will generate electricity for its two major consumer sectors, the automotive and electronics industries. Significantly affected, the domestic order volume has shrunk, and the PC purchases of domestic related enterprises have also decreased accordingly. The contradiction between PC supply and demand may be further aggravated, and the downward pressure on the market will increase. Of course, the macro aspect is not all bad news: The sea freight costs are high and the enterprises are swallowed up. Profits drive raw materials to rise, US dollar strength makes some merchants reluctant to sell, environmental protection or investigation will ease supply and demand, etc., all bring boost to the PC market, as for the effect, it will take time to calm down.
'You can give you unlimited scenery, you can also send you a gray face.' It is more appropriate to summarize the ups and downs of PC. Last year, it was the large-scale overhaul of the installation, the supply and demand form was eased, bringing vitality to the PC market. This year, The increasingly sharp contradiction between supply and demand has put the PC market into the bottomless abyss. I predict that the PC market may still have a downward space in the short term, so businesses need not be eager to enter the market, and should wait until the market stabilizes. Blindly optimistic, the current domestic and international environment is not good, a slight rebound in demand may not bring substantial breakthroughs in the market.