In the past few days, the trend of the PTA market has soared. The average price of the East China market has recently reached 7,272 yuan, rising by 1,310 yuan in one month, rising to a new high in four years.
The industry analysts believe that the PTA market will remain high due to supply and demand, downstream prosperity, raw material costs and other factors.
Limited supply
Recently, PTA social inventory is at an ultra-low level. In addition to more maintenance companies in the future, the spot supply will become more and more tense.
'In July, some maintenance devices were restarted, and the operating rate of the PTA industry rose to 83%. However, the operating rate of the downstream polyester industry remained at a high level of over 93%, which reduced the social inventory of PTA in the month by nearly 200,000 tons. ' Liaoning PTA Dealer Wang Lu said that PTA social stocks have been in a negative growth state in recent months.
In the later stage, the production equipment is overhauled and the supply will be limited.
It is understood that Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit 8 was overhauled in the first place; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.52 million tons/year unit and Yisheng Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/year unit have maintenance plans in the third quarter; Honggang Petrochemical 1.5 million tons/ The annual installation plan is scheduled to be repaired around October. Therefore, the PTA market supply will not increase significantly in the third quarter, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the price will remain high.
Demand is good
At present, PTA's main downstream polyester industry has entered the peak period of production capacity. With the release of new capacity and the restart of some devices, the operating rate of the industry continues to grow, bringing positive benefits to the raw material PTA market.
This year, polyester mainstream manufacturers started a new round of capacity launch. In the first half of the year, domestic new and long-term parking restarted polyester capacity was 3.25 million tons/year, which increased polyester production to 21.95 million tons, up 12.5% year-on-year. Compared with the expected growth rate of 8% at the beginning of the year. In the second half of the year, there are still nearly 1.7 million tons/year of new polyester capacity planned for production, which is expected to reach 23.44 million tons in the second half of the year, up 9.4% year-on-year.
According to Wang Lu, the polyester industry is currently highly prosperous, with both production and sales booming. Mainstream companies are basically in low inventory or zero inventory. 'The recent polyester plant load has increased to 96.5%, and the average load is expected to remain at 96 before the end of the year. More than the above. At present, the production and sales rate of mainstream polyester manufacturers has exceeded 100%, and some manufacturers even reached 150%~200%. Due to the demand is too good, some manufacturers began to resell the sale. 'Wang Lu said.
The downstream textile industry of polyester is also very good. Since last year, a large number of water jet loom companies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have been forced to transfer to northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other places due to environmental protection and cost pressure. Currently, these transfer capacity has been Entering the centralized release period, the willingness to purchase upstream raw materials is strong.
Cost push
Recently, the international crude oil market is still bullish. As a near-oil-end chemical, PTA's upstream PX market has risen with oil prices. At the same time, the start-up load of refineries has declined, making the PX market tight.
On August 7, the US sanctions against Iran came into effect, and the subsequent crude oil sanctions will be restarted on November 5. This will weaken Iran's oil export capacity, increase the risk of global supply shortage, and support oil prices. Goldman Sachs Group's chief international energy Industry researcher De Lavinia said that global oil demand will continue to be strong, and OPEC's surplus capacity is also being rapidly depleted. Therefore, the tight supply of oil market is inevitable. Supported by international oil prices, the PX market will follow. rise.
The increase in crude oil prices has brought about cost increases, coupled with the weak downstream consumption, the recent decline in the efficiency of refining enterprises. The head of the trade department of a medium-sized refining enterprise in Shandong said that with the increase of upstream costs, the refining enterprises currently lose 300 tons per 1 ton of crude oil produced. 400 yuan, some enterprises were forced to stop work overhaul.
In addition, the implementation of the new policy on the consumption of refined oil consumption by the state has also caused the local refining enterprises to feel certain pressure, resulting in a decline in the operating rate. According to the statistics of Jinlian, since June, the 35 local refineries in Shandong Province have experienced significant landslides, and the atmospheric decompression The plant start-up load has dropped from around 70% at the beginning of the year to below the current 55%. The supply of naphtha has decreased, driving the price to strengthen, and it has also pushed up the PX price, which has brought cost support to the PTA market.