After two consecutive years of hot market, the focus of the home appliance market is highly concentrated on air-conditioning products, but the trend of household air conditioners in the first half of 2018 is obviously not conclusive for the whole year. In July, the terminal market continued to burst out. The sound of coming into the cold winter has caused the industry panic. In view of this, the industry online has combed the development and changes of the air-conditioning industry in the first half of this year on the basis of multi-party communication with the industry, and made a fuss for the second half of the market. A preliminary forecast.
First half of the year: New scale has triggered industry changes
Recall that at the end of 2017, the industry has a lot of sounds in the air-conditioning industry. It is believed that the air-conditioning industry that has experienced high growth will enter a weak cycle and consolidate in the year. However, the actual data of the air-conditioning industry in the first half of 2018 has not declined, and the scale of production and sales has remained double. The high growth of the number of digits. Compared with the development of other home appliances, the performance of air conditioners in 2018 is unique.
The scale has reached a new high
According to industry online data, in the first half of 2018, the total production volume of China's household air-conditioning industry was 87.92 million units, up 13.2% year-on-year. The total sales volume was 90.7 million units, up 14.3% year-on-year, of which domestic sales were 52.6 million. Taiwan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, total exports of 38.10 million units, an increase of 6%. From a data point of view, based on the high base of the same period last year, a new historical high was created, and the growth rate remained at double The number of digits, such growth is hard to match with any traditional home appliance.
In the first half of 2018, the household air-conditioning industry grew not only in quantity, but also in unit price and sales revenue. Especially in the domestic market, on the one hand, the price of bulk raw materials has stabilized and declined in the first half of the year, and the pressure on air-conditioning manufacturing costs has decreased. The optimization of product structure has also raised the overall price level to a certain extent. According to preliminary estimates, the retail price of household air-conditioning terminal products in the first half of this year increased by 10%-15%. It can be said that in the first half of 2018, China's household air-conditioning market Although the growth rate is slowing, it is undoubtedly still harvesting good growth and income, as evidenced by the income and profit growth of air-conditioned listed companies in the first quarter.
Production and sales scale and growth of China's household air-conditioning industry in the first half of 2018 (10,000 units)
Product, channel new change
In the first half of 2018, household air-conditioning products have been in constant structural optimization. Frequency conversion, energy efficiency, and intelligence, including the proportion of artistic cabinets, have been improved to varying degrees. The biggest change is reflected in the air-conditioning refrigerant structure. R32 this year. The structure of air-conditioning products of refrigerants has been significantly improved. From the scale and growth of China's air-conditioning refrigerants in the first half of this year, the air-conditioning scale of R32 refrigerants has increased by 41.5% compared with the same period of last year, and its overall scale has exceeded 13 million units; In terms of the proportion of structure, R22 refrigerant products have once again dominated R410a with a slight advantage. The proportion of air conditioners for R32 refrigerant has increased from 11.6% last year to 14.4%.
The main reason for this change is that the price of R410a refrigerant in the first half of 2018 has risen too fast, and its supporting refrigeration oil is in short supply. Therefore, the manufacturer has adjusted the product structure, reduced the number of R410a refrigerant air conditioners, and added R32 and R22 refrigerant products. It is R32 refrigerant air conditioner. It was mainly produced and sold by Japanese brands before 2018, and it is mainly sold back to Japan. The domestic brands are mainly promoted by Gree. After 2018, Midea, Haier, Oaks, TCL and other brands follow suit. Related products are launched in the market. R32 refrigerant products have been rapidly growing and infiltrating both domestically and overseas.
Comparison of the size of refrigerants for household air conditioners in China in the first half of 2017-2018 (10,000 units)
Comparison of refrigerant structure of household air conditioners in China in the first half of 2017-2018 (according to sales volume)
Another change comes from the transformation of marketing and channels, mainly reflecting the new retail model under the line.
First, the channels of Jingdong, Tmall and other online platforms are sinking. Jingdong's 'channel strategy' has built a comprehensive service situation for consumers, brands and offline stores, including channels, brands, logistics, etc. Consumers in the 6th-level market and the rural market can enjoy the same home grid purchase service experience as the big cities, realize the comprehensive and consistent service experience of the Jingdong platform, and also guarantee the partners to achieve a win-win situation of 'channel mutual compatibility, symbiosis and win-win'.
The second is Oaks' original network batch mode. The network batch mode is based on the current low cost and high efficiency of logistics, which has enabled the rapid expansion and overall improvement of the number of terminal networks under Oaks Online. Advantages, which makes the sales channel of Oaks air conditioner in the domestic market more broad. The network batch mode of Oaks has attracted a lot of attention in the industry and has attracted many brands to follow.
Domestic sales pattern remains stable
The eruption of the air-conditioning market in the past two years has brought a good external environment and imagination to many brands. In addition, the mainstream air-conditioning brands have focused on accelerating high-end upgrades in the past two years, so many new brands have entered the air-conditioning industry. Incomplete statistics, there are currently hundreds of brands in the household air-conditioning industry, but the big brand structure has not changed much, and it is still the duopoly competition of Gree and Midea.
In terms of market segments, both domestic and export, TOP5's air-conditioning brand structure is very stable. Among them, although the domestic market has a brand size that is consistent with 2017, the growth rate between different brands is quite different. The growth rate of Oaks is still ahead of the industry level, reaching 48%, more than double the industry average. Haier and TCL have also achieved higher than the industry average.
Aux Air Conditioning's domestic market shipments continued its rapid growth since 2016, and continued to maintain an increase of approximately 50% in the first half of 2018. If the growth of Oaks in 2016 and 2017 is more from rich external market opportunities, The growth of the first half of 2018 is more from internal efficient operation. First of all, the product strength has been greatly improved, no matter the quality, performance, or industrial design of the product, there have been earth-shaking changes, from technology research and development to new product launch. The rhythm is also greatly accelerated. This is the basis for the rapid growth of Oaks; the ideas and methods of marketing change are constantly upgraded, and the rapid expansion of the business path has been achieved, which has made many brands unattainable. The third is the brand promotion and creativity. The inherent logic is The image of the company and the image of the product are further integrated into the user's life, close to the user, and this concept has been quickly penetrated.
In the first half of 2018, the sales growth rate of some air-conditioning brands and industry comparison (by sales volume)
In the air-conditioning export market, Haier’s export growth led the industry in the first half of 2018. Gree and Oaks also achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. As the exchange rate rose, the export cost of air-conditioning products increased, and the current increase rate is close to 10%. Most air-conditioning companies began to increase prices from the middle of the year, but the price increase behavior directly affected the overseas demand for orders, so the export pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large.
Second half: Operation is difficult but winter is not yet
For the shipment size and trend in the second half of the year, some people are worried about whether there will be a cliff-like decline. Industry Online believes that the operation of the air-conditioning industry in the second half of the year will be more difficult than the first half.
Focus on inventory risks
Since domestic shipments of air conditioners have maintained rapid growth in the first half of the year, in contrast to the fact that terminal retail sales are not as good as shipments, and are lower than expected, inventory has always been the focus of industry and business.
As of the end of June 2018, the total inventory of household air-conditioning industry was 39.20 million units, an increase of 28.3% over the same period of last year. If calculated according to the average monthly consumption of the peak season, this inventory needs almost 5 months to digest, according to In comparison with the usual inventory turnover of 4 times a year, the current inventory level is slightly higher. However, compared with the highest level in May 2015, there are still more than 3 million units, but according to the shipment situation in July, As well as the current retail sales situation, the inventory in July will be an increasing trend, so the subsequent inventory pressure will continue to increase.
Therefore, the market's concerns about inventory are further aggravated, the direction of anxiety extends from inventory to price, and then extends to the market trend in the second half of the year. For high stocks to trigger price wars, industry online believes that the possibility of occurrence is relatively small, and now the entire industry is The product structure is optimized and upgraded, and the leading enterprises have higher requirements for profit. If the leading enterprises do not take the initiative to set off the price war, the probability of price war in the whole market should be small.
Operation is difficult but winter is not yet
First of all, from the external environment, China's overall economic development is now generally, the most important is the lack of endogenous growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May this year continued to decline, setting a new low in 15 years, and the value in June was also lower. In the level of April. Secondly, from the perspective of the industry itself, the continuous increase in inventory brings greater operational pressure, and the new cold year factory will open. In order to successfully open the market, the company will definitely control the market, so the overall shipment in the second half of the year. The scale should be basically the same as that of the same period of last year, or it may fluctuate slightly on a flat line.
According to the preliminary data of the industry online forecast, the total shipment volume in 2018 will decrease by 0.2% compared with the same period of last year, of which domestic sales will maintain a slight increase of 0.8%, and exports are expected to decline by 2.9%.
Sales volume and growth forecast for the second half of 2018 (10,000 units, %)
In short, although the domestic household air-conditioning industry has cooled down in the second half of the year, it has not reached the 'cold winter', multi-site, multi-application characteristics, making air-conditioning have the growth space that other home appliances do not have. It has experienced two consecutive years of explosive growth. The air-conditioning market is entering a stage of self-repair: From 2018 onwards, the air-conditioning industry has begun to transform, leading companies are profit-oriented, and product competitiveness has become the core of the company's market development. Returning to the essence of competition, the air-conditioning industry is developing benign The road is constantly moving forward.