The PV market that needs subsidies may be greatly limited, and the average annual price is about 30G. Until the price is low, subsidies are no longer needed. The development of the affordable PV market requires the joint efforts of all parties. The government and the power grid need to solve the problems of the three mountains. Opening ratio is a problem of technological innovation. In addition, new policies, market-based transactions + non-water renewable energy power quotas + green certificate system + sales at a price, can open a large market, although subsidies, but through the market The competition method to solve the subsidy problem, coupled with the differentiated market and export market, the development prospects are still very impressive. This is the researcher Wang Sicheng of the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute at the second PV power plant operation and maintenance new ideas seminar and training meeting A wonderful speech.
Last year's data, China's manufacturing world ranked first, accounting for more than 70% of the world, from all industries, from the photovoltaic market last year was more than 50%, the country installed capacity reached 53G, the cumulative installed capacity of more than 130 million kilowatts, Greatly exceeded the original expectations. From the market point of view, distributed last year was a bright spot, reaching 20GW in that year, household power supply reached 500,000 sets, although the total amount is not much, the first year of household photovoltaic use last year, the national photovoltaic installed capacity More than 130 million.
From the past 10 years, the overall PV price has dropped by 90%. By 2017, the data component was 3 yuan, 36 yuan a decade ago. The system price last year was based on official data, the average is 7 yuan, actually more than 7 yuan. Low, this year's decline is quite powerful. This year's offer is a little more than 2 yuan. Of course, the price of the entire component of the individual tender is even 1.6 yuan, 1.7 yuan, the system cost is basically below 6 yuan, and there is a substantial reduction, so China is World PV has made a huge contribution.
We need to clarify this definition. In addition to the ordinary photovoltaic power plants, the distribution is like this. The first category is the document of the National Energy Administration. Building photovoltaics do not require quotas. Household power supplies and self-use projects are also No quota is required, no matter how big, even if it is 50MWd, as long as it is connected to the intranet, it is also self-sufficient and does not require quota. Of course, it is a fixed subsidy for self-use, and the roof is distributed with full Internet access, and enjoys the benchmark price. There is a fixed subsidy for self-use, and there is a distributed photovoltaic power station, which is what we call 'photovoltaic+'. This part is subject to quotas. This is a policy before 5.31.
After the '5.31' came out, the whole thing changed. What is the impact? First, the ordinary power station. The ordinary power station is the same as the '5.31' and enjoys the new electricity price. The whole price is 0.15 yuan. The 2017 electricity price is 0.65 yuan, 0.75. Yuan, 0.85 yuan, the result of the newly announced electricity price is 0.5 yuan, 0.6 yuan, 0.7 yuan, the impact is very large, probably the entire income difference of 25%, the industry reflects a lot, but the Energy Bureau immediately restored '6.30' 630 before the grid is still enjoying the difference of 0.15 yuan in 2017, this has little effect on ordinary photovoltaic power plants, including 'photovoltaic +' is the same. For distributed, for the original is not limited, now the scale will be immediately cut Around 10GW, '5.31' before the grid is still enjoying state subsidies, '5.31' is not there, this directly affects about 10GW of installed capacity, like the number of household developers tens of thousands, the employment of household photovoltaics has About 600,000 people, who have already filed or have not been filed on the grid, have a very large impact on the projects under construction, which probably affects 10G, and everyone who has hoped to influence so much, the whole amount may be 2 , 3GW, hope country Can you put this port in one place, and it seems impossible to put it again now, the effect of distribution is very large.
In addition, it is the scale. There are no indicators for ordinary power stations, and there is no distribution. In the meantime, distributed is not subject to quota restrictions. Now it is not mentioned. Now it has 12GW in the first half of the year. There is no indicator in the second half of the year. There are no targeted projects, because there are no projects. Although new prices have been announced, there is no corresponding project, but there is a gap. If you don’t want state subsidies, you can arrange the construction by yourself. No subsidies are possible. After the '5.31' came out, the whole situation changed greatly.
From the statistical point of view, the first half of 24GW is about half and half, half is ordinary power station, half is distributed, and a considerable part of the ordinary power station actually has about half of it is equal to the first build. In addition, the 'leader plan' + poverty alleviation, Add up to about 10G, because there is no indicator in the second half of the year, a total of about 34GW. Is it possible for the country to put aside the distribution? This seems to be hopeless now, because it may be more than 10GW, at least for now. The whole year is about 34GW, and there is still a part of the export. The amount of exports last year, according to the statistics of the association, is 31 GW. Now the total amount of PV market in 2018 should be more than 60 GW, and there will be no subsidies in the second half. Some of the projects are now under construction. I know that some industrial and commercial roof projects are still being built, because it can be counted without subsidies, and some people are doing demonstrations, not subsidized demonstrations.
'The leader's plan', about 5 G. poverty alleviation projects that can be connected to the network this year. This time, the rationale is clear. The reporter asked that the total amount of poverty alleviation that has been approved is about 15GW, and 10GW has been built. About 5GW this year. In the continued implementation, the overall goal is probably 15GW, 2.8 million, in fact, probably can not be beaten, the total to solve the 2.8 million poor population, about 18 GW, maybe the second batch, '13 ' There should be a second batch of poverty alleviation projects.
Therefore, now we are opening up a cheap market. In the past, we only had one market, which is subsidizing the market. Now we don’t want subsidies. How big is this market? Of course, this requires everyone to work together, can we have technological innovation to lower the price of electricity. And the power grid also needs to solve some problems. We often say that 'five big mountains', 'five big mountains', we have no way to solve the photovoltaic industry, 'five big mountains' are pressed down, not to mention the arrears, the 'four big mountains 'Influencing our electricity price by 20%, we now have an average price of 6 cents, 20%. If it is reasonable, if it can move 'five big mountains', it could be reduced to about 4 cents. The impact is still quite large. In addition, new Policy measures, market-based transactions, green certificates, mandatory quotas, this I think is opening another window, I will explain in detail later.
The 'Leader Plan' is better solved on the issue of 'Several Mountains'. The land does not need money. It costs only 1 yuan. If we can control the land cost per square meter per year, it is no more than 2 yuan. I think it is still Reasonable, now completely different, some even receive the highest 6 yuan / square meter, Shandong issued a text is received 5 yuan / square meter per year, and some are closed to hit the dog, is returned after the completion of the construction However, this government is unlikely to be across the board, because the land is collectively owned, and the state is owned by the state, like the roof is their own owners, so the government can not order you to drop to 2 yuan per square meter, so this may still Need the market to adjust, this mountain is not easy to cut, unless the government like the 'Leader Plan' across the board, I can give you down to 2 yuan, more than 1 yuan or even no money.
Grid access, this is mainly in the grid company, is it possible to implement according to national policies, to abandon the light limit, whether it is because of security issues, or because of the dispute of interests, the dispute of interests should be resolved, if it is security The problem is that it is reasonable to abandon the light. However, a leader of the Energy Bureau once wrote an article. He said that from the operational data, there is no support. The light-restriction is caused by the grid security and grid congestion. The power cut-off, there is no such data support, that is to say, the current power cut-off is not because of the threat to the power grid, but caused the power to cut off power, but the dispute of interests. If this is the case, the government should To solve, the power grid should be solved. Financing costs, subsidy arrears, and more should be solved. Financing costs, of course, the government said that the bank does not listen to the government, he has its own operating principles.
Therefore, non-technical costs have caused more than 20% of the cost of electricity, so this should be able to solve.
As for subsidy arrears, we all know that if we do not take any measures to exceed 300 billion by 2020, the cost of receiving the network is actually documented by the state. The document on reducing the burden of renewable energy is particularly clear, and the grid companies are responsible for investing in the construction of the network. However, most of the network-connected projects are now invested by developers. It is also said that if the grid enterprises are built by developers, the grid class should complete the repurchase by the end of 2018 according to the agreement or the investment amount assessed by the third party, but now I read a message, the repurchase rate is only 5%, basically still on the developer's head, including new projects, in addition to the front runners, the front runners are strictly in accordance with this document, are built by the grid, but Ordinary power stations are not so lucky. If the problem is implemented according to the national documents, 9 cents per watt, nearly 1 yuan per watt, this part of the cost can be reduced if it can be reduced.
There is another one. Our grid companies are actually not easy. We can develop such a large market today and it is inseparable from grid support. However, there are inscription problems that need to be studied carefully. If not, each station must be equipped with no work. Compensation, is it necessary to have a power forecast for each station? We have seen many PV power plants abroad, the United States, Germany, Spain, Japan, and people do not have these things. They should be equipped with these things in your booster station, but It is not necessary to press such a match at each station. I am not saying that it must be installed or must not be installed. At least it should be a stone of the mountain. It is at least a reference to how people do it. Domestic requirements can not be over-loaded, and the power of the inverter must be removed. This is even more unreasonable. It is common in the world to do this. Why can't China do this?
There are many problems with distribution. One is the problem of PV penetration, the problem of reverse power flow. I don't see any convincing analysis. In addition, the secondary access is not 380 degrees. You have to go to millions. The investment to do the secondary system, there is no need, this is also the burden on our distributed developers, the developers are very confused, the other is the 'net electricity metering', our country is banned, since I do not subsidize Can you enjoy the 'net electricity metering', I can not subsidize, but you want my power generation to be equal to the value of the grid retail electricity price? For example, my electricity price is about 7 cents, I will say The 'net electricity metering', I have a power price of 7 cents for all power generation. It is also worthwhile not to subsidize. Now our country is two-way metering. The part of the reverse power transmission can only be more than 3 hairs of desulfurization electricity price, while the self-use part enjoys it. The retail electricity price, but the 'net electricity metering' can make all the photovoltaic power are enjoying the price of 7 cents, so this income is very different. Can these problems grid companies Net electricity consumption to settle, as long as the photovoltaic power generation is less than one year's electricity consumption, it is sure that your PV power plant is enjoying the high electricity price. This is very simple, and there is no transaction cost. The United States is in 42 states. There is a net electricity metering method that allows the use of 'net electricity metering', and many states in the United States do not have subsidies, which is to promote the development of photovoltaics in accordance with this policy.
In Europe, except for Germany, other countries are allowed to use 'net electricity metering', including Japan, so why can't our country do it? Foreign countries are allowed, and our country does not allow it. In fact, the implementation of this policy is conducive to improving photovoltaic development. The income of the business, directly open a 'spontaneous use' of the cheap market.
Technological innovation also needs the support of the government and the power grid. Why is the capacity ratio ratio, the capacity ratio is generally adopted internationally after 2010, because it can greatly improve the income, in addition, for example, the original category of regional countries originally limited The equivalent utilization hours is 1500. In fact, the increase of 20% after the release can be increased to 1800. The annual power generation hours can be greatly improved, the cost of electricity can be immediately reduced, and very good technical innovations have been Written into the IEC standard, domestic is not allowed.
In fact, if the state allows or the grid allows us to overload, we must also increase the number of guaranteed acquisition hours, because the national default limit for light and light is based on the number of guaranteed hours, and the number of hours of guaranteed charges is now announced. 1500 in the first category and 1200 in the second category, this should be improved. The first category should be raised to 1800, the second category to 1500, and the third category to 1200. So our technological innovation, if you are stuck in the still 1500, 1200 1000, I have no way, I can send 1800, you can't let me send it, so this is complementary. First, you have to let go, let me expand. Second, you have to raise the ruler accordingly. , but only the minimum limit of 20%. In fact, like foreign countries, like the United States this is 1.4: 1.0, 40% of the front photovoltaic over-loading is common in the United States, I have also been to this power station. Like SMA, he even went to 1.6 The best economy is actually 1.6:10. Of course, different regions are different. At least foreign countries generally accept that 60% of them are over-loaded, that is, 10 megawatts of power plants with 16 megawatts of photovoltaic modules. This is economical. Best, the electricity price is the lowest This is a report to the SMA.
If we have 'five big mountains', don't let go of the ratio is such a boundary condition, if we remove the 'five big mountains' to let go of the capacity than another set of boundary conditions, of course, this is the lowest.
Now let's take a look at the financial boundary conditions, which are done according to different boundary conditions.
Finally, I will conclude that if you have 'five big mountains', don't let go of the ratio. If you achieve an internal rate of return of 10%, which is a reasonable proportion of income, if a project, the actual reasonable price is in the three types of resources. It should be 7 hairs, 8 hairs or even 1 yuan respectively. Of course, some places have 'a big mountain', and some places have 'two big mountains'. I am in extreme cases, 'five big mountains' are pressed down. If we can get rid of 'Five big mountains', if the ratio can be released, in fact, our reasonable electricity price is also 10% internal rate of return, we can do 3 to 5 to 5 hair 5, so there will be a large number of markets to achieve parity , at least on the power side.
I still follow the high comparison. According to the current level, the component is 1.9 yuan. If the system cost is 5 yuan, if we do the limit, our components can achieve 1.5 yuan / watt, the system can achieve 4 yuan per watt, we Reasonable electricity prices should be between 2 and 4 cents. At least one or two types of ordinary photovoltaic power plants, including all user-side electricity in the country, can be subsidized. We must be able to achieve such a level, that is, the boundary. After the conditions are fixed, this is a simple mathematical problem. This is the power grid price data compiled by Wang Shujuan. First look at the power generation side. The national desulphurization on-grid price is about 3 gross 6 and the electricity consumption side is more than 5 hairs. The lowest electricity to industrial and commercial electricity, the electricity price of 10 kV access is 0.7 km / kWh, we take the 'five big mountains', the component price of 2 yuan, the system cost of 5 yuan, we can also use electricity The side reaches parity. If we try to achieve the lowest price, all the power sides can achieve no subsidies, which is very obvious.
If the PV industry is to develop a cheap PV market, we need to do it in the PV industry. We will reduce the cost price to less than 2 yuan, and the system will drop below 5 yuan. We will use the hours to expand, so that an innovative means can be used. To achieve 1800, 1500, 1200, the state, government departments and the power grid also need to answer a few questions, can the subsidies not be in arrears? Can the grid access be implemented according to the national policy? Can the light rejection rate be controlled below 5%? Cost, loan, is the financing cost can be further reduced, can not let go of the ratio, and increase the corresponding number of hours of protection, the minimum is only increased to 20%, in fact, we can still be higher, of course, we will not say .
One, two, three, and six, at least the responsibility of the government and the power grid, this is likely to open a window for us. Of course there are some differentiated markets, like this is Professor Liu Zuming of Yunnan, he does Very successful, he did all the direct solution to the AC water pumping, because the PV modules are very cheap now. In many villages with no electricity in the high mountains, they need irrigation water, need human and animal water, in the past It is very inconvenient to pull AC power, and the electricity bill is very expensive. Some of them are now pulled up by AC. Because the electricity bill is very expensive, the people are also applying for PV water pumps. There is no cost after the PV pump is invested once, and he did The power is very large. It turns out that our photovoltaic water pump is a few kilowatts. People and animals drink water. Now it has really solved the irrigation water. This is very successful. Now that it has been done abroad, the Asian Development Bank will organize various developments in Yunnan next month. The country went there to do training, opened up a large market, and now it is in short supply.
Like solar street lights. As we all know, the original 'light up project', Beijing rural area, just 150,000 sets in Beijing, are now there, and they have not played a role at all. After one investment, the battery is bad after a few years. No one is in charge. After the three-year warranty period, it is different now. First, the reliability of LED is much improved. After reaching 50,000 hours, his light efficiency is three times higher than that of ordinary ones. So the original one The 45-watt low-voltage headlights must be equipped with at least 100-150 watts of PV modules. Now only 15 watts of LEDs and 50 watts of PV modules are required. The brightness is the same, the whole cost is down, so this is with technological innovation, like now The LED includes a lithium battery. Now, the lead-acid battery is no longer needed. The original lead-acid battery is broken in 3-5 years. Now the lithium battery can be used up to 2000 times. The whole life can be extended to 8 years, and it is all intelligent. It can monitor more than 10,000 solar street lights in real time, so it enters the commercial stage, with more than 1000 sets of lights, 8 years of use, economically completely PK off the street lights, and there is no electricity cost, the solar street lights one Zizi has been promoted to the commercial market, so this company is doing very well. Now it is doing a lot in foreign countries. Now in China, the business volume after '5.31' has increased by 30%. With the advancement of technology, we think that No, there is no way to solve this market. In a few years, the battery is bad, the government has no one to bear, and now it is different. Now more than 1,000 yuan can continue to ignite for 8 years. The market of commercialization is quickly pushed away. This is a differentiation. The market. We used to do this. I feel that this is no drama. After a few years, the battery is bad, but now people are really commercializing the market. They don’t need state subsidies at all. Like photovoltaic pumps, they don’t need it.
In addition, the new policy is very clear. The country has just issued and actively promoted the trading of the electrified market. The very obvious signal is different from the original document. First, market-oriented transactions and clean energy quotas. Combined, and all power users bear the quota, this is not the same as the original, the original document is not written like this. There is another, his entire pricing mechanism does not talk about subsidies, is a basic electricity price + floating electricity price, That is to say, it is possible that he is a concept of selling at a price. The second one is directly selling at a price. For example, I use 2000 kWh a year, and I have a quota of 200 kWh. The quota is that you must buy wind power or photovoltaic power. What is the price? For example, if the price is increased by 3 cents per kilowatt hour, my 200-degree electricity will only increase by 60 yuan a year. This concept directly solves the problem of subsidies, and the problem of consumption is also solved. Solved, so this gives the signal. So this gives me a lot of hope. The original is not, the original market-oriented trading pilot can not get rid of subsidies, subsidies are paid by the grid. Now the country is equal to say If you don't want to subsidize, you can't do it. If you still need subsidies, you can't do it. So the new electricity price is not about subsidies. It is directly about the issue of selling at a price, so this solves the problem and gets rid of it. The entanglement of subsidies.
In addition, like this document, the renewable energy power quotas draft, renewable energy power prices, give non-water renewable energy quotas, non-water is wind power, photovoltaic, this is allocated everywhere, you must follow The quota is enforced, but this document does not say that the subsidy is a problem. It only solves the problem of subsidy, no subsidy, and no subsidy. This is not the case. So, be sure to follow the new policy, if the analysis is correct, Not only solved the problem of consumption, forced quotas, the other one, sales at a price, can solve the subsidy problem, so I am still very much looking forward to this, of course, I finally did not know this, and he is 5 million through the power trading center. For kilowatt users, you will enter the power center transaction, 5 million kilowatts/year. I can bargain with others. The power trading center is actually set up in various provinces in China, so there is already such a condition for market trading. So I am looking forward to this policy.
From the long-term goal of the country, this is the case. In 2035, this is a goal that the Energy Institute has given to the National Energy Administration. In 2035, it will achieve 1,000 watts per capita, and it will be pushed back. If 2035 is 1.5 billion kilowatts, it will be 1 billion in 2030. 500 million in 2025, 250 million in 2020, according to this, in fact, our average annual installed capacity is not less than 50G, 2020-2025 annual average installed capacity 50G, 2026 or even more, to 2035 an average annual installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts. In the long run The goal of China's energy transformation is to promote the development of photovoltaics, that is, the future is very bright.
Conclusion, the PV market that needs subsidies may be greatly limited, and the average annual price is about 30G. Until the parity, there is no need for subsidies. The cheap PV market needs the government and the power grid to solve the problems of the three mountains and solve the problem of the ratio. If it can be solved well, 60% of the market may no longer need state subsidies. If this problem is solved well, in addition, new policies, market transactions + renewable energy power quotas + non-water renewable energy power quotas + Green certificate system + sales at a price, and can open a large market. Although it is subsidized, it can solve the subsidy problem through market competition, and there is a power quota system, which can open a considerable policy market at once, and there are differences. Market, etc.
In fact, there is one, export market. The export market was 31G last year. It used to be no more than 31G, up to 28G. This year I estimate it is higher than last year, 35-40G, plus 35G this year. There are still more than 70 this year. G, which is the same as last year, so this year is not pessimistic. Again, the subsidized market is 30G. In the next few years, the cheap market does not know how much, the new policy enforces the market for marketized trading of power quotas, and A differentiated market, the whole five major markets I think that 50GW per year should be able to return to such a market in the last two or three years, although the subsidized market is greatly compressed, but other markets are open to us. .
thank you all!