Since August, the PVC market has been in the upward channel. Last week, the price of calcium carbide PVC in East China market was 7,350 yuan, up 380 yuan from August 1; the price of ethylene method PVC East China was 7,450 yuan, up 275 yuan from August 1 .
'At present, the overall low level of domestic PVC social stocks, the expected maintenance equipment increased, coupled with high raw material prices, driven by the sharp rise in futures, there is still upside potential in the spot. 'Zhongyu Information PVC analyst Xu Shinan and other industry analysts believe that.
Inventory remains low
Recently, PVC equipment has been overhauled and inventory is at a low level. In the later stage, there will be more sets of production equipment to be overhauled, and supply will remain limited.
'Because of the tight supply of calcium carbide, the production of PVC manufacturers in the southwest, northwest and other places is limited, and the inventory is at a low level. Currently, the equipment for parking maintenance includes Chengdu Huarong 120,000 tons/year, Inner Mongolia Junzheng 320,000 tons/year, Ningxia Jinhaoyuan Chemical 200,000 tons / year, Xiyang Chemical 100,000 tons / year, Xinjiang Yihua 300,000 tons / year, Salt Lake Haina 200,000 tons / year installation. Late planned maintenance equipment is still more, including Taiwan Plastics 400,000 tons / year, Ningxia Yingli special 250,000 tons / year, Tangshan Sanyou 400,000 tons / year, Qinghai Yihua 300,000 tons / year equipment, etc. Therefore, short-term PVC market supply is still tight, sales pressure is not large. Recently some manufacturers The ex-factory price has been raised, and some manufacturers have not closed the report. ' Xu Shinan said.
At present, the raw material inventory of PVC downstream is generally low. With the arrival of the peak season, the willingness to replenish the downstream will increase, which will support the rise of PVC.
Stronger futures market
In early August, the PVC futures market showed two significant increases. One time was August 3, the PVC1809 contract rose from 7065 yuan to 7270 yuan; the other time was August 7th, the PVC1809 contract rose from 7310 yuan to the highest price of 7525 in the year. Yuan. Driven by this, the market price of PVC in the East China market, PVC, ethylene PVC market price rose 200 yuan, 150 yuan, reaching 7450 yuan, 7380 yuan.
'Affected by high temperature weather, the supply of PVC in the third quarter recovered or not as expected. While the demand side is driven by good real estate performance, the recent trend is improving. At present, the low inventory in the downstream is difficult to meet the peak season in autumn, so the downstream will prepare the reservoir in the near future. Thus pushing up the price. 'Shanghai Dongzheng Futures Co., Ltd. energy and chemical analyst Yang Wei believes that the current PVC futures price has exceeded the previous target value of 7300 yuan.
In August, the main contract of PVC changed for the month, PVC1809's long position moved PVC1901. On August 10, PVC1901 opened at 7380 yuan, the highest rushed to 7455 yuan, all day high fluctuations. Overall, PVC futures will maintain a strong pattern, to the spot The market brings support.
High raw material prices
From the raw material point of view, since August, the domestic calcium carbide market has been stable and small, and the average factory price has remained stable at 2,900 yuan. Some areas have seen a slight increase, such as Henan's receiving price increase of 30 yuan.
'At present, the overall inventory of calcium carbide manufacturers is lower, and the shipment situation is better. Recently, the construction of PVC equipment in Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has reduced the external supply of calcium carbide and pushed up the market price. In Ningxia, the freight rate of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has increased by about 100 yuan, and the cost is corresponding. Increase. ' Long Zhong Information calcium carbide analyst Zhang Zhongying said.
In Sichuan, an important place of origin, the province does not charge for electricity during the period of high water. It is currently in a period of high water, and the cost of calcium carbide enterprises is reduced. However, due to the impact of local mudslides, PVC cannot be delivered, and enterprises can only reduce the load production, so the price of calcium carbide is high. Stability.
Another raw material ethylene, which is driven by high crude oil prices, has been on the rise channel. Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the monthly crude oil market report that the US sanctions against Iran and possible crude oil production in other regions may cause global oil supply to face Great challenge. Affected by this news, last week WTI September crude oil futures closed up 0.82 US dollars, reported 67.63 US dollars / barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed up 0.74 US dollars, reported 72.81 US dollars / barrel. Crude oil prices high, right The ethylene market forms a support.