If you are immersed in the air-conditioning market for a long enough time, if you have enough knowledge of the demand characteristics of air-conditioning, then the impact of this year's peak season market will be particularly obvious. An old dealer in an industry used to As for the author, the domestic air-conditioning market has no problems that cannot be solved by the heat of the day. If there is, then it will be hot again. There is no more suitable for the sales of air-conditioning products than the current weather. However, the favorable temperature conditions have not brought the manufacturers as scheduled. The need for blowouts.

The air-conditioning industry has finally entered a stage where even a long period of high temperature and humid climate is difficult to stimulate demand explosion. For all the manufacturers in it, this is the worst situation. No more than a proven ' The influence of the law's being broken is greater. This is the pain of the experience brought by empiricism, and it is also the inevitable result of the development of the industry to a certain extent.

Collective investment impulses are still punished

But today, a year ago, no one would expect this kind of result to appear, even if there is a hint of worry, it will often be convinced by the subconscious judgment that the weather hot market will be good. It is no exaggeration to describe the air-conditioning industry in August 2017. When the industries such as refrigerators, washing machines, and televisions are in a state of sluggish growth, the air-conditioning industry will last for one year from July 2016 to June 2017. The continuous out-of-stock market has brought about a collective carnival in the entire industry.

Even before, I am afraid that no one will realize that an industry that has been fully market-oriented for more than 20 years has experienced fierce price competition, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been extremely intensified. Without any external stimulus policies and methods, Actually, there will be a shortage of production capacity, and the supply market will be in short supply. However, under the consideration of the competition game, few people will tell the reality that everyone has already known – this is only a staged opportunity.

Rational speculation does not stop the frenzied investment impulse. Any form of crisis speech will be inundated in the collective leap forward atmosphere. In fact, since the first half of last year, the long-running capacity expansion of the air-conditioning industry has swept the country. The last time this phenomenon happened back to the 1990s.

From the big-name brand to the new brand that started to work in the industry, almost all of them are building new factories in full swing. They are building a production line in full swing, and they are rushing to recruit... No one organization can count the number of brands that are absolutely accurate, but now the air-conditioning industry is alive. More than 600 brands have become the consensus in the industry.

Synchronous with capacity expansion, shipments continue to cross historical peaks. In fact, there is not only an investment frenzy in the manufacturing sector, but also a new wave of new entrants in the circulation field. In the pattern that it is difficult to obtain rich profits, air-conditioning has become the unanimous choice of home appliance dealers. All, the air-conditioning shipments have increased again in the past year, in addition to the enthusiasm of the original merchants, the channel expansion allows the products to ship. The improvement of space is also one of the direct reasons.

The trend of terminal retailing has not kept pace with the high level of shipment growth. The concentrated outbreak of retail volume in the past two years has released huge demand resources, and the entangled macroeconomic environment and real estate market are also difficult to provide new students. Incremental. In the relatively stable range of product renewal requirements, a large number of shipments are converted into huge inventory. History always has striking similarities, and the current inventory troubles in the air-conditioning industry have been repeated two years ago. It has appeared many times.

The biggest crisis is the mentality of not tolerating a decline.

In fact, the demand space in the domestic air-conditioning market is still large enough. However, the collective demand for sales growth has caused most manufacturers to devote themselves to the market. Any industry will have various crises. The biggest crisis in the air-conditioning industry is not in the market. It is not in the product, not in the environment, but in the state of the industry that is not inclusive of the market, and has no tolerance for the decline in sales.

After the end of the 2018 freeze year, each data organization published an overall annual status. What is puzzling is that the retail high-growth data given by the data organization is very different from the situation on the merchant's site. There is a condition that makes this seem contradictory. The situation can coexist, that is, the offline decline that is greatly filled by online growth has driven the entire industry to grow again on the basis of last year's historic retail peak.

The entire air-conditioning industry has had a lot of confusion in the past year, but one thing is certain, that is, the online e-commerce platform still maintains its growth momentum; it is also certain that the growth rate of the 2018 freeze year is comparable to that of There has been a significant decline in the past.

The online platform can meet the explosive growth of air-conditioning manufacturers. The entry of a commercial terminal can form a coverage of the national market, and the distance between the manufacturer and the user is the shortest. However, as other commercial terminals develop to a certain extent, they face Like the bottleneck, the release of online dividends has now entered a slowing cycle, and the corresponding entry and operating costs also have high barriers to entry.

The soft spot for the online model does not mean the weakening of the offline circulation. On the contrary, inspired by the online platform, the air-conditioner's ability to differentiate the offline system has also been realized in the past year. Progress, strengthening endogenous growth, focusing on user experience, and striving for efficiency improvement have become the core of manufacturers' integration of offline channels.

The scale increase brought by these measures to enterprises in 2018 may not be so obvious, but without these measures, the harsh industrial environment will bring more pressure to the survival and development of enterprises, and, in the face of the future development of the market, Manufacturers have thus formed a more spacious space.

Many chaos has destroyed the competitive order of the industry.

The superior ecological environment that the air-conditioning industry has been able to maintain in recent years is thanks to the high pricing model pursued by the leading brands represented by Gree and Midea. This has created a lot of opportunities for the follow-up brands, especially the chaos. It is the entry of a large number of new brands. In the absence of independent technology research and development, product development, and manufacturing capabilities, the entire air-conditioning industry has experienced a variety of unfavorable phenomena that may affect the long-term development of the market.

The brand of the edge ball has been flooded in the domestic market. Foreign brands such as Panasonic and Mitsubishi Electric have become the object of collective imitation of the cottage enterprises. The traditional enterprise resorts to the traditional form of self-protection in the current environment is basically ineffective, because this is not only It is only a personal behavior, but an industry phenomenon. The key to the brand of the edge ball is the enthusiasm for the low-priced products from the channel to the terminal, from the merchant to the consumer.

The low price behind the low price is often low quality. In the past year, the raw material cost did not show a big decline or even a part of it is rising, and the selling price of many small brands is often lower than the manufacturing cost of standard products. Cut corners, energy efficiency It is the main means to achieve this price competitiveness. The shocking and even ironic is that the 'national standard machine' and 'non-standard machine' will become the title of the industry and the market is unimpeded.

The harm of bad money to expel the good money effect is inevitable for the formal enterprise, and the impact of a large number of short-term behaviors on the harm of the channel and users to the industry is even more profound. The direct cause of these chaos is that there is excess The capacity needs to be effectively released in the short term. In essence, the imbalance between supply and demand distorts the market's ability to allocate resources.

It is worth mentioning that the commercial draw represented by the fight is also providing ample circulation opportunities for the brand and the non-standard machine. The public opinion crisis after the listing in the US is a white card machine in the domestic appliance market. The concentrated manifestation of the phenomenon of non-standard machines, the elimination of the competition order requires a strong and strictly enforced normative system.

Innovation will make the industry full of imagination later

Counterfeit and shoddy products, brand unscrupulous flow to the market, although it is incredible, as if the historical re-emergence of high inventory, such as the lake is hanging over the top of the industry, despite the worry and anxiety, but in the past year there are many products, technology, Innovations in patterns and so on have outlined a beautiful map for the future development of the industry.

Innovations in products and technologies are the most commendable places. Midea and Haier will upgrade and iterate comfort products and self-cleaning products. Aux and TCL will develop the functional direction of the products, including medium-sized projects like Yangzi and Meibo. Enterprises also spare no effort to innovate in product innovation. Turning on the reports of various listed companies, the air-conditioning industry has reached a historic height in the cost of technology research and development and product developers in the past year.

Innovations in production and sales models and business models have also accelerated in the past year. Midea has formed a unique development path through end-to-end and integrated manufacturing, logistics, regional operations centers, terminals, etc.; Effectively expanded the number of terminal networks in its offline channels, and attracted other brands to follow; Meibo Air Conditioning has enabled the new enterprise to rapidly enhance its brand image and value through the Internet of Things sharing model.

The brand communication mode and the transformation and innovation of foreign image are also one of the main lines of industry development in 2018. Midea's air conditioners are surrounded by sports, music, literature, games and other seven dimensions to integrate more youthful and fashionable elements. Through the pan-marketing endorsement, and the cross-border cooperation with the Ferrari club, Oaks has poured a rich youth into its brand. In the era of the user group gradually switching to the younger generation, the brand image that caters to mainstream consumption has become a lot. The common choice of business.

Of course, there are also layouts in the field of product segmentation, such as Gree's kitchen air conditioning, Midea's children's air conditioning in cooperation with Disney, Hisense's men's air conditioning upgrade... The smart products and smart home platform are not rushing. Weaken the investment in product basic functions.

In the past year, the entire air-conditioning industry has embarked on a high-altitude curve. In the process, there are many wonderful performances, and there are also chaos that is worth exploring and pondering. And, due to the existence of high inventory, The trend makes the later development not optimistic. As the world's largest single country market and manufacturing center, the foundation of China's air-conditioning industry has not been destructive due to the harsh external environment, the awkward Sino-US trade relationship, and the deteriorating market demand. The collapse, and each company gives the market a more adequate rehabilitative diet may make the survival and development of the coming year more comfortable.