Yesterday's close, the home appliance sector continued to underperform the market, Vantage, Qingdao Haier, Little Swan A and Midea Group all fell more than 2%. In the past two months or so, Little Swan A has fallen more than 30%, the US group also went down About 24%. Some analysts believe that the continuous adjustment of the home appliance sector, on the one hand, is related to the overall callback of large consumer spending. On the other hand, the slowdown in industry sales growth and institutional differentiation have also brought greater pressure on the stock price.
Signs of sales slowdown
There are many sales channels for home appliances, such as retail sales, offline stores and online monopoly or direct sales. But the latest data shows that although the market has good expectations for the home appliance industry, signs of slowing sales growth have emerged. Among them, the negative growth of retail channels is the most obvious. Some home appliance companies also bluntly, some sub-sectors face greater challenges.
Sales in the retail market have changed a lot. According to the monitoring data of the China National Business Information Center, the retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises nationwide in July 2018 decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 8.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. Retail sales of the category decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 13.8 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The largest change among the five categories of consumer goods.
According to data provided by Cai Ji Securities analyst Hong Jiran, air-conditioning online sales in July this year fell by 16% year-on-year. If the data distortion caused by the February Spring Festival peak is removed, this is the first year-on-year decline in online in recent years.
The listed company's financial report seems to have been reflected. According to the latest disclosure of Little Swan, the company achieved operating income of 12.057 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 14.09% year-on-year. The growth rate was the lowest level in the past six years, and the same period last year. Compared with the slowdown of 18.26 percentage points.
In 2017, the home appliance sector represented by Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Supor, Little Swan A became a beautiful landscape of the stock market. In the first half of this year, it also enjoyed the bonus of large consumption upgrade. However, since mid-June, the home appliance sector has Continued adjustment, many individual stocks adjusted more than 20%. Some analysts believe that although the fundamentals of the home appliance sector are still stable, the leading stocks are strong, but whether they can rebound after a sustained decline depends on the change in risk appetite of the entire A-share market. .
As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, while the home appliance sector fell 0.35%. Supor, Vantage, Qingdao Haier, Little Swan A and Midea Group all fell more than 20%. Gree fell 0.87%, kitchen appliances Boss appliances fell 0.27%. Relatively speaking, TCL Group in the field of black electricity, Sichuan Changhong and Hisense Electric closed red.
Institutions lighten up significantly
It is worth noting that in the two months since mid-June this year, the home appliance sector continued to adjust. Among them, Vantage shares fell 37.69%, Little Swan A fell 37.21%, Hisense Kelon fell 32.05%, and Boss Electric also fell 28.98. %. Midea, Haier, Gree, etc. were not spared, and the declines were all above 20%.
Some analysts pointed out that the recent trend of the home appliance sector is weak, on the one hand, it is affected by the upgrade of large consumption and changes in sales performance. On the other hand, the loosening of the organization has also caused the decline in capital capacity.
According to the preliminary statistics of the reporter, the public funds held in the first quarter of this year have clearly disagreed with the operation of the home appliance sector in the second quarter of this year. Rumei Group received long-term domestic demand in the second quarter of this year, Guangfa Xinyi, Bo Shiyufu, CEIBS and China Merchants MSCI and other funds increased their holdings. However, they were also reduced by the 8 funds of Huitianfu. Among them, Huitianfu Growth Focus Round Fund reduced its holdings by 3.5 million shares, and the blue-chip stable and flexible allocation fund reduced its holdings by 2.7 million shares.
'From the shareholding situation, the home appliance sector did not significantly reduce the situation, but compared with last year and the first quarter of this year, the organization has been significantly loosened. Plus its own increase is large, if there is a disagreement, the organization will lighten the pressure on the stock price Relatively large. 'A Shenzhen fund person told the Guangzhou Daily all-media reporter. Whether the home appliance sector can rebound to recover lost ground, mainly depends on market risk appetite.
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Air-conditioning sales
Guangzhou Daily News (all-media reporter Zhao Fangyuan) This summer, the continuous high temperature in many places in China has made the air-conditioning demand for 'watching the sky' again 'blowout'. The industry believes that extreme weather is often short-lived. High, the air-conditioning terminal retail market is not as optimistic as imagined.
High temperature weather boosts air-conditioning sales in some areas
Since July, many cities in China, especially in the north, have continued to have high temperatures.
A consumer in a third-tier city in the north told reporters that buying air conditioners is 'have to bow to a sudden high temperature'.
Industrial observer Hong Shibin told Guangzhou Daily that all media reporters: 'Air conditioning is a 'watching the day' product, especially in North China, northeast, the temperature difference between day and night before the summer is relatively large, many families may not need to use air conditioning, this year because of the hot weather As a result, some areas in the north began to install air conditioners in large areas. 'According to the observation of industry observer Liu Buchen, this year's air-conditioning inventory is very high. The reason for this result is that the manufacturers are pressing heavily, and the air-conditioner terminal retail market is not as optimistic as expected.
Extreme weather is not sustained
The reporter noted that the current air-conditioning ownership in first- and second-tier cities is relatively saturated. The newly-added air-conditioning sales are mainly for real estate sales and old air-conditioning replacement. As the first- and second-tier cities are obviously affected by real estate, the market growth is sluggish. The difference is that The air-conditioning possession in the fourth-tier cities is relatively low, and the space for demand still exists.
Industry observer Liu Buchen believes that extreme weather will temporarily drive air-conditioning sales, but this kind of pulling is not persistent.