Since 2011, due to the transformation of energy technology and emerging technologies, the global lithium-ion battery production has entered a period of rapid growth. From 2012 to 2015, the growth rate has exceeded 50%. In 2015, the global lithium battery production was 100.75GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39.45%. In 2017, the growth rate of the main application market of lithium-ion batteries slowed down, with a growth rate of only 16.85%. However, benefiting from the prosperity of the power battery driven by the new energy automobile industry, it is expected that the global lithium battery growth rate will be stable in 2018, and the output is expected to reach 155.82GWH. The market size will reach 231.326 billion yuan.
Global lithium battery production
China is one of the important producers of lithium batteries. In 2014, China's lithium-ion battery production reached 5.287 billion, accounting for 71.2% of the world's total output. It has ranked first in the world for ten consecutive years. 2017 China lithium battery The output exceeded 10 billion, with a growth rate of 27.81%. In 2018, the national lithium battery production is expected to reach 12.1 billion, with a growth rate of 22.86%. After 2018, mobile phones in the main areas of consumer batteries are difficult to market due to the market, and the previous volume basically meets the market. Demand, the growth rate is expected to fall to about 10%, the decline in notebook and tablet production will continue to narrow, but it is still declining. Wearables, drones and other consumer products are expected to show rapid growth, but Overall, the overall size is small. Overall, the demand for consumer lithium-ion batteries in 2018 will maintain a low growth rate of around 3%. Compared with the continuous decline of consumer batteries, the demand for power batteries is growing rapidly, and the market share from 2012. 7% or so to 45% in 2016. In the long run, new energy vehicles are an important industry in China in the next few years. There is huge market space, and the market share of power batteries is expected in 2018. It is expected to exceed 60% and become the main pillar of the future development of lithium batteries.
China's lithium battery production
China's lithium battery market segmentation ratio
As one of the country's seven strategic industries, with the support of national and local government supporting policies, China's new energy vehicles have achieved leap-forward development in industrialization and scale. In 2011, China's new energy vehicle production only 8 million vehicles, accounting for less than one-thousandth of the national car. In 2017, China's new energy vehicle production has reached 794,000, an increase of 53.4% year-on-year, accounting for more than 2.7% of the national automobile. It is estimated that China's new energy vehicle production in 2018 Breaking through 1 million vehicles and reaching 2 million in 2020. The development of new energy vehicles has also enabled the rapid expansion of power batteries. In 2014-2017, domestic power battery shipments were 5.9GWh, 7.0GWh, 30.5GWh and 39.2 respectively. GWh, and the compound growth rate is expected to remain above 30% in the next three years. The cathode materials for power batteries mainly include lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The average life of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 4-6 years. The service life of the ternary battery is about 2-4 years; therefore, the power battery with rapid growth in installed capacity since 2013 and 2014 will usher in the first retiring tide in 2018. It is expected that the battery recycling will double in 2018. The old power battery recycling market will reach 5 billion yuan. By 2020, the total number of decommissioned power batteries will exceed 230,000 tons. The scale of the used power battery recycling market will further increase to 15 billion yuan, driven by environmental protection requirements and policy norms. The call to build a recycling power battery mechanism is getting higher and higher.
China's new energy vehicle production
Number of used batteries
Lithium batteries generally consist of a positive electrode, a negative electrode, a separator and an electrolyte. The positive metal materials contained in the positive electrode materials of different power lithium batteries are different. The most potentially valuable metals include cobalt, lithium, nickel, etc. The negative electrode is generally carbon. The material is mostly graphite. The electrolyte is a carbonate organic solvent of LIPF6. The proportion of cobalt, nickel and lithium in the waste lithium battery is 5%-15%, 2%-7%, 0.5%-2%, respectively. Containing metal elements such as Au, Al, Fe, the data shows that if the waste lithium battery is fully recovered, 240 tons of cobalt can be recovered each year, with a value of more than 40 million.
Cobalt is a silver-gray shiny metal with a melting point of 1495 ° C and a boiling point of 2870 ° C. It has ductility and ferromagnetism. Cobalt is stable in air at room temperature. Above 300 ° C, cobalt begins to oxidize in air. Cobalt It has excellent high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance and magnetic properties and is widely used in aerospace, mechanical manufacturing, electrical and electronic, chemical, ceramic and other industrial fields. It is important for manufacturing high temperature alloys, cemented carbides, ceramic pigments, catalysts and batteries. One of the raw materials. Cobalt is a very scarce small metal resource, known as 'industrial MSG' and 'industrial teeth', is one of the important strategic resources.
Yangtze River Cobalt Price (yuan/ton)
Cobalt supply and demand balance
Lithium is a silver-white alkali metal element that is soft and easily oxidized and darkened. It is the lightest of all metal elements. Compared with other alkali metals, lithium has the lowest compressibility, the highest hardness and the highest melting point. It is the abundance in nature, ranking 27th, and the content in the earth's crust is about 0.0065%. Lithium is also widely used in batteries, ceramics, glass, lubricants, refrigerants, nuclear industry and optoelectronics. .
Lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide price
In 2017, the global cobalt recovery metal amount is about 13,500 tons, and the 3C battery recovery rate is 23%. Assuming a power battery recovery rate of 30%, the 2020 cobalt recovery amount is 17,300 tons, which is an increase of 3,800 tons of cobalt compared to 2017's 13,500 tons. Supply. Assuming a 30% recovery rate of the power battery, the lithium recovery in 2020 is 15,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate supply compared to 0.5 million tons in 2017.
Battery cobalt content
Cobalt recovery (10,000 tons)
The amount of lithium used in the battery (lithium carbonate equivalent, 10,000 tons)
Lithium recovery
