According to incomplete statistics, the scale of domestic polycarbonate construction will exceed 3 million tons per year in the next few years, and the new installations planned to be put into operation in 2018~2019 will be close to 1 million tons per year. 'This round of polycarbonate boom in China, Shocking the global plastics industry, unwise investment behavior will disrupt the market and cause vicious competition. 'Cheng Zheng, chairman of the China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association, pointed out recently.
Zheng Yu analyzed that the intensive release of polycarbonate capacity can greatly increase the self-sufficiency rate and meet the domestic market demand, but on the other hand, it will also generate new problems, the growth rate of capacity growth and the growth rate of demand, and a large number of homogeneity. The construction of the project may lead to overcapacity in the industry as a whole.
According to Duan Qingsheng, Secretary General of the Polycarbonate Branch of China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association, China is the country with the fastest growth in demand for polycarbonate in recent years, and the dependence on imports has been very high. Before 2012, only Covestro and Teijin in China The manufacturer of polycarbonate above 10,000 tons has occupied almost all of the domestic production capacity. In the following years, domestic enterprises tried to break the dependence on imports, Sinopec Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Gas, Zhetie Gale, Luxi Chemical, Wanhua Chemical The newly built equipment of the company is gradually put into production.
According to the "2018 China Polycarbonate Industry Development Blue Book" released by the Polycarbonate Branch of the China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association in early August, China's polycarbonate production capacity has grown rapidly in the past five years, from 480,000 tons/year in 2013 to the present. 945,000 tons / year, significantly eased the situation of relying heavily on imports. With the construction of new equipment, it is estimated that by 2022 domestic polycarbonate production capacity will exceed 3 million tons / year, the average annual growth rate may reach 30%, the output is also It is expected to reach 2.3 million tons/year. In addition, only by the number of built-in installations, there will be 14 domestic polycarbonate producers by 2020 and more than 16 by 2022, and the capacity distribution will be further dispersed.
So how much polycarbonate does the market need? The Blue Book states that domestic polycarbonate consumption in 2017 is close to 1.8 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of global consumption. It is expected that domestic polycarbonate demand will increase in the next few years. The price will remain at 3% to 5%. By 2022, the domestic demand for polycarbonate will reach 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons. Therefore, the net import of polycarbonate in China will decline rapidly in the next few years, and the self-sufficiency rate will rise rapidly. By 2021~2022, the balance of supply and demand will be reached, and eventually it will be converted into a net exporter.
The polycarbonate branch reminded that in the next few years, China's polycarbonate production capacity may show a 'blowout' growth, and the risk of overcapacity caused by overheated investment will appear.
In May this year, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation issued a warning report on the production capacity of key petrochemical products. The report pointed out that China's polycarbonate has maintained a growth rate of more than 20% per year for four consecutive years. The capacity utilization rate has also reached 72.7%. However, in the next three years, the domestic polycarbonate project will be invested and constructed. It is estimated that this year alone, the newly added capacity will reach 400,000 tons/year, and the downstream electronic appliances and construction panels will grow slowly. Affected by new modes of transmission, the demand for polycarbonate continues to shrink.