Air conditioning 2018 'cold year' recently closed, big data agency Aowei cloud network pushed the total data show that as of the end of June 2018 'cold year' air-conditioning retail sales of 175.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, but with the 2017 'cold year' Compared with the growth rate, the growth rate of 2018 'cold year' is expected to increase by about 10%.
In July, the national average high temperature days reached 6.1 days, the fourth highest in the same period since 1961. The high temperature intensity is high and the range is wide. The factors of 'seeing the sky to eat' seem to be lacking. Why is the growth rate of air-conditioner retailing slowing down? How is the growth pressure? response?
Demand has been released quickly in the first two years, and the industry has entered an adjustment period.
According to the total data of Zhongyikang, in 2015, the retail volume of the air-conditioner market fell by 1.1% year-on-year. In 2016, the industry experienced explosive growth in 2017. In 2017, the sales volume of air conditioners reached 57.87 million units, and the scale of production and sales both reached a record. Xin Gao. Xu Dongsheng, vice chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, believes that air-conditioning is a durable consumer product. The demand has been released rapidly in the first two years. The base number is already large, and the growth rate is also normal.
In 2017, the number of air-conditioners per 100 households in the country was 96.1, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year. In the past two years, after the first two years of development, the air-conditioning market in the first and second-tier cities was at the end of the popularization period, and the demand was mainly replaced by new generation. The situation is more difficult to appear; third, fourth-tier cities, although the number of air-conditioned households is not high, but the market demand is slow, the need for high-temperature weather stimulation.
The slowdown in the growth of the real estate industry has also led to a slowdown in demand. Guo Meide, vice president of Aowei Cloud Network, said that the growth of the air-conditioning market is related to the strong real estate boom, which is generally a few months behind. In the first half of the year, the sales growth rate of commercial housing in the country was 3.3%. Compared with the same period of last year, there was a decline. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region decreased by 5.4% year-on-year. 'East areas such as Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, etc. are all air-conditioning sales provinces, real estate growth slows down, and to a certain extent also affects The new demand for air conditioning. 'Guo Meide said.
The air conditioning market is facing inventory pressure, and the quality of technology is fundamental.
The growth of air-conditioning market demand slows down, but also brings certain inventory pressure. Industry insiders told reporters that the current industry inventory is about 30 million units, and the pressure still exists.
'In the first half of the year, the production of enterprises has been increasing, and the growth of production in June and July is more obvious. However, the overall sales in July are not very good, the inventory has not been fully released, and the pressure has increased. 'Guo Meide said. Vice President of Yangzi Air Conditioning I believe that although there are not many mainstream brands in the air-conditioning industry, the cumulative production capacity of each of them is very abundant. In addition, with the rapid growth of the industry in the past two years, new brands are constantly pouring in, resulting in overcapacity in the air-conditioning industry.
'For the industry, the inventory of 20 million units is relatively normal, because air-conditioning production requires a certain period from preparation, production to transportation. If you catch two big years in three years, the shortage will be lost, most companies will choose Ready for the goods. 'Xu Dongsheng introduced.
Demand growth slows, inventory increases, how should the air-conditioning industry respond?
Product upgrades enhance competitiveness. 'Consumers are more demanding for energy-efficient, smart and environmentally friendly products. More intelligent functions such as remote control, automatic cleaning, and intelligent infrared body sensation are increasingly favored by consumers. According to the “Analysis Report on the Purchase of Power Grids in the First Half of 2018”, the retail sales of energy efficiency air conditioners in the first half of the year increased by 11.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the retail sales increased by 207.2%, while the retail sales of energy efficiency air conditioners with three or more levels continued to decline. .
Reduce cost and inventory turnover. At present, some enterprises have begun to use intelligent equipment such as industrial robots on a large scale, and implement the transformation of production process information to reduce the total cost. In addition, there are also enterprises that customize the 'order-order' production. Reduce inventory.
Exploit three and four markets to popularize space. 'Three, four lines are one of the driving forces for the growth of air conditioners in the later period, but they are more affected by temperature and bring uncertainty to the growth of the later market.' Guo Meide said that mainstream enterprises should With the help of its own channel sinking, second-tier enterprises can use the e-commerce channel to lay out the network, but how to reduce the sinking circulation cost is the industry to solve. In addition, the channel diversification, product diversification and other industries are all industries. Transformation 'supplement'.
The industry entered the adjustment period. For the next 'cold year' scheduling, some production companies said that they will be dynamically adjusted according to the situation in August this year. 'Although they can't leave the 'seeing the sky to eat', but the air-conditioning industry also has to suffer. Internal strength', and the quality of technology is fundamental. 'Xu Dongsheng said.