According to our latest information from the industry, it is estimated that the sales of excavators in August will increase by 30%-40% year-on-year, and have the potential for upward adjustment. In August, the industry will gradually out of the off-season. It is expected that domestic sales in August will increase slightly from July, and export sales will increase. It is expected to be flat after September. After September, the industry will enter a small peak at the end of the year, and the sales volume is expected to remain high in the context of the expected increase in infrastructure. Looking at the whole year, it is expected that the sales volume of the excavator will exceed 190,000 units, which will hit a record high.
The recent PPP project may be accelerating, and it is estimated that the opening of the union in August exceeded expectations.
According to Komatsu's official website data, the number of hours of dredging in July was 133.8 hours, down 6.6% year-on-year, mainly related to the high base in the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.5% compared with June. According to our communication with many OEMs. In the situation, starting at the end of July, especially after entering August, we can see that the start-up ratio and the year-on-year increase are likely to be related to the accelerated PPP project. In the short term, the accelerated landing of these projects can guarantee the recent development. In the medium term, it is necessary to continue to observe the landing of infrastructure projects, which is expected to be reflected by the end of the year.
The tightening of environmental inspection will promote the release of new demand, and the sales of excavators may exceed expectations next year.
From the perspective of recent environmental protection trends, the verification of non-road motor vehicle emissions has become more and more severe. On July 3, the State Council issued the “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, pointing out the investigation of non-road mobile machinery. The non-road mobile machinery low emission control zone will be completed before the end of the year. The recently released “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2018-2019 autumn and winter air pollution comprehensive management tackling action plan (draft for comments)” requires cities in 2018 Before the end of December, the non-road mobile machinery survey was completed, and the low-emission control area was demarcated and announced. The low-emission control area prohibits the use of high-emission non-road mobile machinery such as black smoke. Tangshan City even prohibits the use of equipment below the national standard. And require a monthly check rate of no less than 50%, and impose a fine punishment on illegal activities according to law. At present, the national stock excavation equipment is mainly based on the national second emission standard, and there are still a large number of equipment below the national emission standard, with the country The implementation of delineation of low-emission control areas will increase the demand for equipment that meets emission standards, and some equipment that exceeds the standard will be phased out. We believe that in the future, when the total amount of construction starts to maintain a certain scale, or there is a certain increase, the inventory equipment update is the main source of demand for equipment, and the environmental protection factor will become a variable that has a greater impact on sales. In 2019, the sales volume of the excavator may exceed Market expectations.
